Rules for Hurricane Tracking

[Category 5]

I started with some real ones, then added some joke ones, this is almost a sequel to my old "you might be a hurricane nut if" thread. Feel free to add your own.

1. Impossible is nothing, eliminate it from your vocabulary. Use words like Unlikely.

2. Never assume anything

3. Don’t EXPECT the unexpected, just don’t rule it out.

4. Just because it happened before, doesn’t mean it will happen again, but it doesn’t mean it won’t ether.

5. Just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it won’t

6. You cannot control Hurricanes, live with it.

7. Don’t compare statistics to 2005, unless there are 10 storms by August 1st, 20 by October 10th, or you’ve already passed 28.

8. Don’t listen to the medias damage estimates (See Ophelia and Humberto)

9. Don’t put much trust in the 5 day cone.

10. the LBAR is for entertainment purposes only (My annual best of LBAR will be out soon BTW)

11. Don't get excited over every blob, if you find yourself doing this, you might be TOO obcessed, please see a doctor.

12. Denying yourself sleep so you can watch the latest invest is not advised, but slacking off at work or school to do so is completely acceptable.

13. The Atlantic isn't the only basin, in fact, there are intresting things going on year round in other basins. It's fun once you adjust to the visible being dark during the afternoon.

14. SSD has archives, It's the best thing since QUIKSCAT.

15. Just because you aren't a pro met doesn't mean you can't make forecasts, just don't make forecasts while under the influence of drugs, alcohol, or Accuweather.

[Cyclone1]

XD XD XD Nice thread!

A few more.

16. Don't sit at the NHC site and hit refresh waiting for the next advisory to come out so you can be the first poster on Storm2k to post it. You do not win a prize if you do so.

17. Take notice of the NHC's wording. "may not develop" is implying that it also "may develop". "Poorly organized" indicates that it is "organized". Same with "less organized".

18. If the CMC develops a hurricane out of seemingly nowhere, ignore it. Actually... just ignore the CMC completely.

[RL3AO]

19. DON'T FOCUS ON THE ^&#(*^# CENTER BLACK LINE!

(Did I get the message across?)

[cycloneye]

20. Dont interpret every word of the Tropical Weather Outlooks.

[CrazyC83]

21. Sometimes, trust your gut instinct as opposed to official forecast, especially if you think it will be stronger. (Referring to the "surprise" intensifications of storms like Charley)

[Category 5]

21. Sometimes, trust your gut instinct as opposed to official forecast, especially if you think it will be stronger. (Referring to the "surprise" intensifications of storms like Charley)

Thats a good one, look at Dean and Felix.

22. Please don't waste S2K bandwidth forecasting a storm to go where you want it to go while ignoring all logical facts and laws of physics in doing so.

[HURAKAN]

23. If a hurricane doesn't hit Florida or the US, it doesn't it's not important.

[Category 5]

23. If a hurricane doesn't hit Florida or the US, it doesn't it's not important.

I might make that rule #1.

24. A break in convection in the middle of an invest does not qualify as an eye.

[HURAKAN]

25. Weakening convection in a disturbance doesn't mean it's necessarily dead. aka (Invest 90 / Humberto)

26. HAVE PATIENCE, LOTS OF IT!

[Category 5]

27. Just because you THINK something is a Tropical Storm, doesn't mean it is.

[HURAKAN]

27. Just because you THINK something is a Tropical Storm, doesn't mean it is.

Many of us fall in this category, especially when discussing borderline non-tropical systems.

[Category 5]

27. Just because you THINK something is a Tropical Storm, doesn't mean it is.

Many of us fall in this category, especially when discussing borderline non-tropical systems.

Yeah, thats why I posted it. It basically states, don't jump to conclusions, read the facts first.

[Category 5]

28. Like it or not, the NHC upgrades systems only when data suggests that it's the correct move. They don't upgrade systems to satisfy your craving of inflated numbers. Live with it.

[MiamiensisWx]

21. Sometimes, trust your gut instinct as opposed to official forecast, especially if you think it will be stronger. (Referring to the "surprise" intensifications of storms like Charley)

Thats a good one, look at Dean and Felix.

22. Please don't waste S2K bandwidth forecasting a storm to go where you want it to go while ignoring all logical facts and laws of physics in doing so.

You forgot Humberto, Claudette, Katrina (prior to south FL), and Lorenzo.

A strengthening TD or TS is much different than a weakening system with a narrow wind radii.

I suggest this rule is important.

29) Do not focus on the intensity. Focus on the intensity trends. A strengthening landfalling TS or hurricane can be nasty via bringing >34 kt and >64 kt winds further inland. Simultaneously, a small, steady-state or weakening TC (ala Ernesto 2006) will be a vice versa situation (not a big issue).

[Category 5]

21. Sometimes, trust your gut instinct as opposed to official forecast, especially if you think it will be stronger. (Referring to the "surprise" intensifications of storms like Charley)

Thats a good one, look at Dean and Felix.

22. Please don't waste S2K bandwidth forecasting a storm to go where you want it to go while ignoring all logical facts and laws of physics in doing so.

You forgot Humberto, Claudette, Katrina (prior to south FL), and Lorenzo.

A strengthening TD or TS is much different than a weakening system with a narrow wind radii.

I suggest this rule is important.

29) Do not focus on the intensity. Focus on the intensity trends. A strengthening landfalling TS or hurricane can be nasty via bringing >34 kt and >64 kt winds further inland. Simultaneously, a small, steady-state or weakening TC (ala Ernesto 2006) will be a vice versa situation (not a big issue).

I love that one. Perfect examples. Claudette, Humberto, Katrina (in FL) as you said. On the flip side, Lili, Dennis etc.

[Downdraft]

30. You don't have to post a satellite picture every 15 minutes. Most of us have links for that and it just shows your obsession.

31. Try and remember we have posters in here from ALL over be sensitive to what's happening to them. All storms are important to somebody not just people in Florida, Texas or North Carolina.

[CrazyC83]

32. Just because you are in an area not normally prone to hurricanes doesn't mean you shouldn't keep an eye out. (They have been to really high and low latitudes and all over the Atlantic)

[Squarethecircle]

My personal favorite:

33. All forecasts are wrong (at least to a certain extent.)

[HURAKAN]

30. You don't have to post a satellite picture every 15 minutes. Most of us have links for that and it just shows your obsession.

Thanks for remaining me how obsessed I'm!!!

31. Try and remember we have posters in here from ALL over be sensitive to what's happening to them. All storms are important to somebody not just people in Florida, Texas or North Carolina.

That's already #24.

[Squarethecircle]

Thanks for remaining me how obsessed I'm!!!

Hmm...

34. Hurakan is obsessed?

Naw, that wouldn't work.