Rules for Hurricane Tracking

[JonathanBelles]

#34. Not all TC's are coming to your house.

#35. Battles between TX and FL over TC's aren't as entertaining as they may seem.

#36. You will always stay up until 2AM just to find out the track hasn't changed XD

[Derek Ortt]

37. The mets here are not wrong if they disagree with you. Usually, the mets win those arguments in the end

38. The Dvorak numbers are ESTIMATES and should NOT be used as solid data when there is recon, QUIKSCAT, or surface observations suggesting something else

39. Marginal cat 3s are in fact major hurricanes. Forecasters forecasting weakening (or analysts suggesting that a storm has weakened to a marginal 3) to marginal 3 are not downplaying the storm. Cat 3s should be treated as any other major hurricane

40. When ordered to evacuate, DO SO

[Ed Mahmoud]

37. The mets here are not wrong if they disagree with you. Usually, the mets win those arguments in the end

38. The Dvorak numbers are ESTIMATES and should NOT be used as solid data when there is recon, QUIKSCAT, or surface observations suggesting something else

39. Marginal cat 3s are in fact major hurricanes. Forecasters forecasting weakening (or analysts suggesting that a storm has weakened to a marginal 3) to marginal 3 are not downplaying the storm. Cat 3s should be treated as any other major hurricane

40. When ordered to evacuate, DO SO

Um, I know this is a hurricane thread, but obviously rule 37 applies to weather, and not professional sports.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Or college football.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, of course not college football, but shouldn't that point be made in the sports forum?

[Ed Mahmoud]

yes, of course not college football, but shouldn't that point be made in the sports forum?

Just clarifying.

[CrazyC83]

41. Every storm is important and nothing should be ignored. Even if no land is threatened, there are ships out there and there are lots of fish out there as well.

42. Don't jump to conclusions based on one source. Use all the available data (Recon FL, SFMR, dropsondes, Dvorak, QuikScat, land and sea observations and your own instincts) to make judgement calls.

43. Don't be afraid to evacuate early. It always helps to beat the stress, even if there is a sense of "crying wolf".

[Category 5]

44. You live in an area thats not affected by Hurricanes, good for you, don't wish them on those who are affected.

[Cyclone1]

#45. Don't bother emailing the NHC about a storm you think they don't notice. They notice it. If they aren't mentioning it, there might be a reason like, it's not tropical and never will be.

Guilty of my own rule.

[Category 5]

45. (based off of 44) Before you start a thread yelling about the latest blob or spin, please make sure it's actually tropical.

[RL3AO]

46. You can't call a season a bust until AT LEAST October 1.

[Category 5]

46. You can't call a season a bust until AT LEAST October 1.

47. Better yet, wait until November 30th, no make that December 31st, just in case.

[Chacor]

48. To allow for the storms like Epsilon and Zeta, in fact, wait until January 1 to call a season a bust.

[Cyclone1]

Well technically, if Epsilon and Zeta hadn't formed, 2005 still wouldn't exactly be a "bust".

[AnnularCane]

49. Don't go into a panic and start yelling doom and gloom when one run of one model points a storm in the direction of your house, even if the model is considered "reliable" (GFDL, I'm looking at you!). At least wait and see if the other models start following suit.

Same thing if a model shows a storm near your location 2 weeks out (especially if that model happens to be the CMC).

[cycloneye]

50. Dont follow the GFS model 16 days out because you will be stressed and dissapointed every time you look,nothing happens and it changes from run to tun in the long range.

[HURAKAN]

50. Dont follow the GFS model 16 days out because you will be stressed and dissapointed every time you look,nothing happens and it changes from run to run in the long range.

That's basically for every model.

[pojo]

51. Don't be crying that there is no recon report when there should be.... as we found out this year..... the airplane DOES have SATCOM problems with ground station communication. Please be patient... sometimes you won't get a report until we land.... that's IF you are lucky AND the NHC decides to release it.

[Category 5]

Based off rule 50

52. The GFS sucks at predicting tropical systems more then six days out, stop using it. ESPECIALLY in March or April.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based off rule 50

52. The GFS sucks at predicting tropical systems more than six days out, stop using it. ESPECIALLY in March or April.

I fixed it...

The last portion of your post MUST be emphasized.