91P.INVEST 15kts-1010mb-152S-1675W

[tolakram]

Figured this should be in here somewhere, for completeness if nothing else.

[CrazyC83]

Finally something after a period of global inactivity...

[P.K.]

03F had advisories stopped for the second time this morning.

WWPS21 NFFN 300900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 30/0908 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [1005 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 169.0E AT
300600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT-IR IMAGE AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
03F LIES UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IN A IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIROMENT. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LAST
24 HRS DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
03F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM
UNLESS OTHERWISE NECESSARY.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Squarethecircle]

Looks decent, and it might have an outside shot at becoming a tropical cyclone. It may just be me, however, but this looks quite a bit stronger than 15 knots, though the 1005 figure seems good. Unfortunately, these kinds of lulls happen; usually around now and sometimes in the late Spring.

[P.K.]

Ok advisories still going again. It has been days since this was even moderate to become a TC when it first became a tropical depression on 25/11/07.

WWPS21 NFFN 302300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 30/2304 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [1004 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.4S 166.5W AT
302100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT-IR/VIS IMAGES, AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
03F LIES UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IN A IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIROMENT. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND BECOME
MORE ORGANISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE 03F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Chacor]

30/2022 UTC 16.2S 166.4W T2.0/2.0 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Coredesat]

Doesn't look too bad.

[HURAKAN]

01/0222 UTC 17.2S 165.0W T2.0/2.0 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

01/0822 UTC 18.1S 164.8W T2.5/2.5 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S
164.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 163.1W, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A CONVECTION DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010849Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND WITHIN 40 NM OF THE
LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN ESTIMATED WINDS
AND THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[wyq614]

the area of convection previously located near 18.5s
163.1w, is now located near 22.2s 158.1w, approximately 115 nm
southeast of Rarotonga island. Recent animated multispectral
satellite imagery and a 020354z revealed an asymmetric low level
circulation center (LLCC) with little to no deep convective
activity. Cold and dry air entrainment has persisted over the last
six hours as the disturbance has begun extratropical transition. As
the subtropical ridge to the northeast continues to steer the
disturbance southeastward, it is not expected to develop into a
significant tropical system. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded
to poor.
---------------------

So it is, in Chinese typhoon forums, 91P is never expected to become a tropical cyclone by the typhoon trackers, neither is 92S. (oh, my poor English...)

[Chacor]

wyq614: 欢迎来到 Storm2k！

As for 03F/91P Fiji now have it at its lowest pressure yet.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 01/2356 UTC 2007 UTC.

CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [999 HPA] CENTRE NEAR 19.5S 161.5W AT 012100
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 20
KNOTS.

TD 03F LIES UNDER A 250-HPA RIDGE AXIS BUT IN A SHEARED ENVIROMENT.
LLCC EXPOSED TO NORTHWEST OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. ORGANISATION
IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS BUT SHEAR SIGNIICANTLY INHIBITING CONVECTION
OVER LLCC. 03F EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD. SST AROUND 27C. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 03F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[wyq614]

Chacor: Thank you for the welcome. In fact we Chinese don't know much sources of tropical cyclone information. For example, we can't open the website of JTWC, and hardly anyone is informed of Fiji or La Reunion forecast. We usually turn to JMA, PAGASA and above all, Chinese Meteological Bureau. So, that a reason why the Chinese typhoon trackers don't care about the tropical disturbances of other zones than Western Pacific like 92S and 91P. Recently, however, the tropical cyclone Sidr did cause a heat discussion among Chinese typhoon forums.

[Squarethecircle]

Chacor: Thank you for the welcome. In fact we Chinese don't know much sources of tropical cyclone information. For example, we can't open the website of JTWC, and hardly anyone is informed of Fiji or La Reunion forecast. We usually turn to JMA, PAGASA and above all, Chinese Meteological Bureau. So, that a reason why the Chinese typhoon trackers don't care about the tropical disturbances of other zones than Western Pacific like 92S and 91P. Recently, however, the tropical cyclone Sidr did cause a heat discussion among Chinese typhoon forums.

That's actually quite interesting... seeing what it's like from China. This place usually has JTWC forecasts, if not whole, up every once in a while. Of the three you go to, I'd probably choose JMA, although JTWC is the best.

It must kinda suck not being able to fully track all the basins. At least you got to know about Sidr...

Anyway, the system appears to be losing its structure or whatever that's supposed to be called. It did have a shot though, back when it looked nicer and was a 'fair' from JTWC.

[Chacor]

Of the three you go to, I'd probably choose JMA, although JTWC is the best.

No, it isn't. Get off it. The JTWC was horrible in the WPac this year, totally ignoring two clear tropical storms (which were both named by the JMA, albeit a little late). They also failed horribly on Pabuk (thinking it had made landfall near HK when it had actually continued to track SW towards Vietnam), as well as on Hagibis (thinking it would make landfall in Vietnam even AFTER it had recurved eastwards).

wyq614: 中囯台风迷也跟踪美国飓风吗？Do Chinese typhoon trackers follow American hurricanes as well?

[Chacor]

199
WWPS21 NFFN 020900 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 02/0909 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [998HPA] CENTRE NEAR 22.4S 157.6W AT 020600
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 20
KNOTS.

TD 03F REMAINS UNDER A 250-HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A SHEARED ENVIROMENT.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING LESS ORGANISED
AS SHEAR SIGNIICANTLY INHIBITS CONVECTION OVER LLCC IN THE LAST 12
HOURS. 03F IS SLOLWY ACCELERATING FURTHER SOUTHEAST UNDER A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD. SST AROUND 27C. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 03F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Squarethecircle]

Of the three you go to, I'd probably choose JMA, although JTWC is the best.

No, it isn't. Get off it. The JTWC was horrible in the WPac this year, totally ignoring two clear tropical storms (which were both named by the JMA, albeit a little late). They also failed horribly on Pabuk (thinking it had made landfall near HK when it had actually continued to track SW towards Vietnam), as well as on Hagibis (thinking it would make landfall in Vietnam even AFTER it had recurved eastwards).

See, the only reason I would say that is because only one of the two covers more than one basin.

I don't recall using the context of the West Pacific.

[Chacor]

That's because JTWC has no WMO mandate to 'cover' any basin, they just cover it as the US military/navy needs.

[Squarethecircle]

That's wonderful; let's get back to the storm now.

[wyq614]

Chacor: Chinese typhoon trackers DO care about caribbean hurricanes, for example, we had had a discussion topic about the hurricane Noel, and even the tropical cyclones of Northeastern Pacific, however, their reactions are slow, since they don't know how to get sufficient source, and they know little English (even my English is poor, though), so they can't understand the reports in English. Therefore, they can only rely on the report of Chinese Meteorological Agency. If a tropical disturbance occurs in Caribbean, no one knows and no one cares, they can only start the discussion when a significant hurricane is formed.

Back to the storm, I guess 91P will be killed soon...