TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if the Arctic air does head this way it will be sharply modified before it gets to our area. Until there is a LOT more snowpack to our North any Arctic air that makes it this way will be short lived and/or so heavily modified that it won't be near as cold as it is initially depicted or as the pressures might suggest. When there is a lot more snow pack(if there is) in January and February is when the Artic air can really affect us here in SE TX.

1989 was darned cold around Christmas in both Dallas and Austin.



Of course, no sign of anything like that. We are about due for the first freeze, IIRC.

[vbhoutex]

Even if the Arctic air does head this way it will be sharply modified before it gets to our area. Until there is a LOT more snowpack to our North any Arctic air that makes it this way will be short lived and/or so heavily modified that it won't be near as cold as it is initially depicted or as the pressures might suggest. When there is a lot more snow pack(if there is) in January and February is when the Artic air can really affect us here in SE TX.

1989 was darned cold around Christmas in both Dallas and Austin.



Of course, no sign of anything like that. We are about due for the first freeze, IIRC.

Yes we are due for our first freeze in about 9 days IIRC.

1989 already had a pretty good snow packl to our North already IIRC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if the Arctic air does head this way it will be sharply modified before it gets to our area. Until there is a LOT more snowpack to our North any Arctic air that makes it this way will be short lived and/or so heavily modified that it won't be near as cold as it is initially depicted or as the pressures might suggest. When there is a lot more snow pack(if there is) in January and February is when the Artic air can really affect us here in SE TX.

1989 was darned cold around Christmas in both Dallas and Austin.



Of course, no sign of anything like that. We are about due for the first freeze, IIRC.

Yes we are due for our first freeze in about 9 days IIRC.

1989 already had a pretty good snow packl to our North already IIRC.

Speaking of cold weather and banana plants, IIRC, they produce bananas if they have made it two summers without being killed back to the root line by a freeze. So, if we can avoid a killing freeze somehow this winter, many a backyard in SE Texas will produce bananas. I have no idea how tasty the little bananas I've seen in SE Texas actually are.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6z GFS is now back to showing the strong front arriving on December 11th. Behind the front, on the 12th and 13th, the model shows Houston struggling to get above the 50 degree mark both days with lows dropping into the 30s (possibly as cold as near freezing) for 2-3 nights.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 6z GFS is now back to showing the strong front arriving on December 11th. Behind the front, on the 12th and 13th, the model shows Houston struggling to get above the 50 degree mark both days with lows dropping into the 30s (possibly as cold as near freezing) for 2-3 nights.

But that happens almost once every winter, usually more than once.


If there isn't frozen precip in a city/town I-20 or Southward, I can't get very excited.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6z GFS is now back to showing the strong front arriving on December 11th. Behind the front, on the 12th and 13th, the model shows Houston struggling to get above the 50 degree mark both days with lows dropping into the 30s (possibly as cold as near freezing) for 2-3 nights.

But that happens almost once every winter, usually more than once.


If there isn't frozen precip in a city/town I-20 or Southward, I can't get very excited.

yeah, I agree. These last few runs weren't really all that exciting. However, there continues to be small changes from run to run, and I think an eventual setup for a wintery event may be on the table by mid December.

The 12z run, for instance, looks interesting in a few spots:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This upcoming pattern definitely looks to have "potential". We will just have to wait and see if anything can actually come from all this. The best case scenario would be if the cold air can find a way to sink south quickly and meet up with an ULL to our west. If that can happen, then we will be in a great setup for winter weather. For now though, we are still in the "wait and see" mode.

Hopefully by weeks end we will have a much better idea of the possibilities..

[southerngale]

The 6z GFS is now back to showing the strong front arriving on December 11th. Behind the front, on the 12th and 13th, the model shows Houston struggling to get above the 50 degree mark both days with lows dropping into the 30s (possibly as cold as near freezing) for 2-3 nights.

But that happens almost once every winter, usually more than once.


If there isn't frozen precip in a city/town I-20 or Southward, I can't get very excited.

I would say it happens pretty often every winter. Lows in the 30's and highs in the 50's... fairly common throughout winter here.

When the highs are in the 30's, particularly in the low 30's, that's more interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS is now back to showing the strong front arriving on December 11th (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif) and by Wednesday the 12th it shows highs stuck in the 50s with a north breeze, scattered clouds and possibly a few showers. This is not too terribly cold though, just a typical December-style front. However, future runs may decide to trend colder/warmer, so we will have to watch for that.

Definitely still a lot of uncertainty...

[jinftl]

A week or two out can totally yield some 'epic' forecasts...as the runs on 11/23 did for 12/3 - 12/4 timeframe...days that will be in the 70s and sunny in houston it appears...great for entertainment though...akin to the models during the tropical season that show a wave emerging from africa landfalling in miami as cat 5 in 2 weeks...keeps it interesting!

Well the models were generally correct with the Thanksgiving cold spell, so will they do well again? If so, then we are in for one heck of a winter storm by December 3rd and 4th. Check out the 18z GFS run...

1050mb+ high pressure and very cold air slides out of Canada next Sunday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif

Arctic front reaches Texas on Monday the 3rd with quickly falling temperatures and snow in north Texas: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240l.gif

By Tuesday, winter precipitation reaches well into the state, including Houston. This kind of setup would even be favorable for decent accumulations of snow/ice in central and southeast Texas as temperatures Tuesday afternoon would still be below freezing with lots of precipitation and below 0C 850mb temperatures: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_264l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_276l.gif

Now I know the models can and will change some over the coming days, but if the 18z GFS run were to play out exactly, then we would be looking at one of Texas' worst winter storms in a long time with accumulations of snow and sleet likely for many areas between December 3rd and December 5th.

BTW - To give you an idea of how CRAZY this run is. I just looked at the GFS snow accumulation maps, and the 18z is calling for a swath of 10-15" amounts across the city of Houston and into Louisiana by the morning of Wednesday, December 5th!

Now amounts like that are not impossible (1895 and 2004 come to mind), but they are very, very unlikely for southern areas of Texas. None the less though, it is still very interesting to see a model showing something like this in the Day 10-12 range.

[Below N.O.]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

The CPC forecasts aren't worth a cent. At the end of November they came up with their early December forecasts that had Texas and much of the south BELOW normal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

The CPC forecasts aren't worth a cent. At the end of November they came up with their early December forecasts that had Texas and much of the south BELOW normal.

Agreed. They flip flop so much over at the CPC that it is hard to trust them beyond the short term. This time however, they may be somewhat right. I think the idea of a warmer than normal December for Houston has some merit, but I also believe that when (and if) the cold does come, it will come with fury and likely lead to a pretty bad, though likely short-lived, winter event (in either the form of winter precipitation and/or a widespread hard freeze) for the area with some very cold readings. Time will tell if I'm right..

[Garnetcat5]

Issued at: 3:09 PM CST 12/3/07, expires at: 11:15 PM CST 12/3/07

Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am cst tuesday, The NWS in houston/galveston has issued a freeze warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Tuesday.
Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass will lead to ideal cooling conditions tonight as surface high pressure moves into the area. Temperatures will quickly fall after sunset and bottom out in the upper 20s near lake livingston to just near freezing along the freezing line itself which should stretch from roughly wharton to katy to kingwood to liberty. Times below freezing will range from 3 to 5 hours across areas around lake livingston to just an hour or two further south near the freeze line itself. Just expect northern and western suburbs of the houston metro area to see any freezing temperatures, and short lived at that.
This will be the first freeze of the season for many locations so a few reminders are in order. Residents should protect any sensitive outdoor plants. It might be a good idea to bring pets inside for the night, but if that is not possible, make sure they have a warm shelter to stay in. Check on the elderly and other neighbors that might need some extra help. Be especially careful and take necessary precautions if using space heaters. If outdoors, dress in layers. Since this will not be a hard freeze and the duration of freezing temperatures will be small, pipes should not be a major concern.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Issued at: 3:09 PM CST 12/3/07, expires at: 11:15 PM CST 12/3/07

Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am cst tuesday, The NWS in houston/galveston has issued a freeze warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Tuesday.
Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass will lead to ideal cooling conditions tonight as surface high pressure moves into the area. Temperatures will quickly fall after sunset and bottom out in the upper 20s near lake livingston to just near freezing along the freezing line itself which should stretch from roughly wharton to katy to kingwood to liberty. Times below freezing will range from 3 to 5 hours across areas around lake livingston to just an hour or two further south near the freeze line itself. Just expect northern and western suburbs of the houston metro area to see any freezing temperatures, and short lived at that.
This will be the first freeze of the season for many locations so a few reminders are in order. Residents should protect any sensitive outdoor plants. It might be a good idea to bring pets inside for the night, but if that is not possible, make sure they have a warm shelter to stay in. Check on the elderly and other neighbors that might need some extra help. Be especially careful and take necessary precautions if using space heaters. If outdoors, dress in layers. Since this will not be a hard freeze and the duration of freezing temperatures will be small, pipes should not be a major concern.

South Texas FREEZE WARNING thread

[southerngale]

Brrrrr...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
341 PM CST MON DEC 3 2007

..FREEZE WARNING WILL IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM CST...

.THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. THIS WILL SETUP GOOD RADIATION COOLING OVER THE REGION.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180>182-201-216-040545-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.W.0003.071204T0600Z-071204T1400Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON...ORANGE
341 PM CST MON DEC 3 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL
RANGE FROM 28 DEGREES NORTH TO 32 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Can we issue an "Arctic Blast-Cancel" for this thread?

For some reason, I think we are going to have a warm Christmas-New Years period.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues to show the potential for a few stronger fronts over the next two weeks. I don't know if any will reach "arctic blast" status, but there definitely could be a few chilly days out of this setup. This run even shows a few days with highs struggling to get out of the 40s around the mid December timeframe with the potential for a couple of freezing nights.

[jinftl]

Keep in mind the 18z GFS run on 11/23 which showed 10-15" of snow in Houston on 12/5...

The 18z GFS continues to show the potential for a few stronger fronts over the next two weeks. I don't know if any will reach "arctic blast" status, but there definitely could be a few chilly days out of this setup. This run even shows a few days with highs struggling to get out of the 40s around the mid December timeframe with the potential for a couple of freezing nights.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Keep in mind the 18z GFS run on 11/23 which showed 10-15" of snow in Houston on 12/5...

The 18z GFS continues to show the potential for a few stronger fronts over the next two weeks. I don't know if any will reach "arctic blast" status, but there definitely could be a few chilly days out of this setup. This run even shows a few days with highs struggling to get out of the 40s around the mid December timeframe with the potential for a couple of freezing nights.

Yes, that was a great example on how the long range models can not always be trusted. It did get the overall idea and timing of the front right though, and we are even looking at a freeze tonight..so it really was not completely wrong. One thing that is a bit different about these next front though, is that the GFS model runs have been showing these fronts arriving after December 10th for quite some time now. Definitely a lot more consistency than the snow/ice storm that the GFS only depicted on a couple of runs. Based on this, I think there is a pretty good chance that we do in fact see these stronger fronts arrive around mid month and possibly a few days of pretty chilly weather behind them.

[jinftl]

so essentially there may be periods of colder weather in the next couple of weeks...it's called winter!!!

Keep in mind the 18z GFS run on 11/23 which showed 10-15" of snow in Houston on 12/5...

The 18z GFS continues to show the potential for a few stronger fronts over the next two weeks. I don't know if any will reach "arctic blast" status, but there definitely could be a few chilly days out of this setup. This run even shows a few days with highs struggling to get out of the 40s around the mid December timeframe with the potential for a couple of freezing nights.

Yes, that was a great example on how the long range models can not always be trusted. It did get the overall idea and timing of the front right though, and we are even looking at a freeze tonight..so it really was not completely wrong. One thing that is a bit different about these next front though, is that the GFS model runs have been showing these fronts arriving after December 10th for quite some time now. Definitely a lot more consistency than the snow/ice storm that the GFS only depicted on a couple of runs. Based on this, I think there is a pretty good chance that we do in fact see these stronger fronts arrive around mid month and possibly a few days of pretty chilly weather behind them.