Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

[wyq614]

我对南太平洋的风暴不了解，南太平洋历史上最厉害的风暴是哪个？最大强度是多少节？造成了多大伤亡？

I know little about the tropical cyclones of the South Pacific. Which was the strongest ever tropical cyclone of the Southern Pacific in the history? What was its maximum intensity in knots?How many casualties has it caused?

[RattleMan]

我对南太平洋的风暴不了解，南太平洋历史上最厉害的风暴是哪个？最大强度是多少节？造成了多大伤亡？

I know little about the tropical cyclones of the South Pacific. Which was the strongest ever tropical cyclone of the Southern Pacific in the history? What was its maximum intensity in knots?How many casualties has it caused?

That would be Cyclone Zoe in the 2002-2003 season. It had max winds of 130kt (10-min). It's unknown how many casualties it caused.

[wyq614]

我对南太平洋的风暴不了解，南太平洋历史上最厉害的风暴是哪个？最大强度是多少节？造成了多大伤亡？

I know little about the tropical cyclones of the South Pacific. Which was the strongest ever tropical cyclone of the Southern Pacific in the history? What was its maximum intensity in knots?How many casualties has it caused?

That would be Cyclone Zoe in the 2002-2003 season. It had max winds of 130kt (10-min). It's unknown how many casualties it caused.

谢谢，还有一个问题，南太平洋的旋风能生存多久啊？是不是过了南纬25-30度就消散了啊？还是像西太平洋的，能够活到北纬40多度？

Thanks, and another question if you don't mind, How long can a tropical cyclone of Southern Pacific survive? Will it dissipate very soon when reach 25S-30S, or just like those of Western Pacific that can remain living until northernmore than 40N?

[P.K.]

FKPS01 NFFN 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG:200712050700Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:DAMAN
NR:02
PSN:S1218 E17712
MOV:WSW 10KT
C:990HPA
MAX WIND:40KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S1254 E17530
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:45KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S1306 E17518
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:50KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S1436 E17448
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:50KT
NXT MSG:20071205/1330Z

[Coredesat]

Definitely appears to be a small eye:

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 12:23:30 S Lon : 177:03:02 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -65.7C Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 12:23:30 S Lon : 177:03:02 E

why is the date from 20 dec 2005?

[Squarethecircle]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 12:23:30 S Lon : 177:03:02 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -65.7C Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

That seems quite a bit low...

[P.K.]

Up to 50kts.

FKPS01 NFFN 051200
TC ADVISORY
DTG:200712051300Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:DAMAN
NR:03
PSN:S1248 E17624
MOV:SW 10KT
C:985HPA
MAX WIND:50KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S1430 E17518
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:50KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S1518 E17530
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:45KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S1554 E17548
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:40KT
NXT MSG:20071205/1930Z

Track Forecast

[wyq614]

斐济的报告总是很保守，其实很多中国台风爱好者认为“达曼”的巅峰强度不应该只有50KT。

The reports from Fiji are always conservative. In fact, many Chinese typhoon trackers believe that the maximum intensity of Daman should be more than 50KT.

[Chacor]

的确，斐济的报告看来有点低。“达曼” 已经有了 “眼暻”！

Indeed, Fiji's estimate/report looks to be on the low side - Daman already has an eye!

Also, I see that Fiji has upgraded Daman to a Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 12:43:24 S Lon : 176:17:37 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.5 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -59.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[wyq614]

553
wtps31 pgtw 051500
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 05p (daman) warning nr 002
01 active tropical cyclone in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
051200z --- near 12.6s 176.5e
movement past six hours - 255 degrees at 11 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 12.6s 176.5e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
060000z --- 13.5s 175.2e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 215 deg/ 04 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
061200z --- 14.2s 174.7e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
080 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 155 deg/ 03 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
070000z --- 14.8s 175.0e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 125 deg/ 07 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
071200z --- 15.6s 176.1e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
051500z position near 12.8s 176.2e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 05p (daman) located approximately 295 nm north
of nadi, Fiji, has tracked west-southwestward at 11 knots over the
past 06 hours. Tc 05p is tracking along the northwestern periphery
of the low- to mid-level subtropical steering ridge to the south. The
system has intensified slowly over the past 12 hours, and is expected
to continue intensifying throughout the forecast period. Tc 05p will
continue to track generally southwestward through tau 24 before
turning to the southeast under the influence of an approaching mid-
latitude trough. The mid-latitude trough will weaken the subtropical
ridge between tau 12 and tau 24, causing the system to slow as it
enters a period of weak steering before turning to the southeast.
Maximum significant wave height at 051200z is 10 feet

跟斐济的预测大相径庭啊。到底应该相信哪个呢？斐济的预报是快速减弱被吹跑。

It is exactly different from the forecast of Fiji......Which one should we believe, then? The Fijian forecast says it will move rapidly while weaken

[HURAKAN]

05/0830 UTC 12.7S 177.0E T3.0/3.0 DAMAN -- South Pacific Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

I'd say this has a very good shot at achieving hurricane strength. Regardless, it seems to me like it will intensify at least five knots more.

[P.K.]

Also, I see that Fiji has upgraded Daman to a Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale.

Not sure about that. It only says that on the track forecast page and not any of the advisories. Anyway this is only just a cat 2 on the Aus scale so short of STC status on that.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

I don't see any mention of "severe" in the most recent shipping bulletin.


PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 05/1928
UTC 2007 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
175.9 EAST AT 051800 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9 SOUTH 175.9 EAST AT 051800 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.1S 175.2E AT 060600 UTC
AND NEAR 16.0S 175.6E AT 061800 UTC.

[P.K.]

They have removed the term "severe" from the forecast track page.

WTPS11 NFFN 051800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 05/2001 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
175.9 EAST AT 051800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 47 WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERAL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SOME SHEAR PROHIBITING BANDS FROM
STAYING WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC ESPECIALLY TO SOUTH AND WEST. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT STILL EVIDENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. DVORAK
BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT 3.0 PT AGREES. MET
IS 3.0, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF A 250-HPA
OUTFLOW AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH.
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND LATER
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
TRACK PROJECTION WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 060600 UTC NEAR 15.10S 175.2E MOV SSW 08KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 061800 UTC NEAR 16.00S 175.6E MOV SSE 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 070600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 176.4E MOV SE 07KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 071800 UTC NEAR 17.3S 177.5E MOV SE 07KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC DAMAN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 060130 UTC.

This means the latest estimates are T3.5/3.5 from RSMCs Nadi and Honolulu, TCWC Brisbane, KNES and JTWC.

[P.K.]

我对南太平洋的风暴不了解，南太平洋历史上最厉害的风暴是哪个？最大强度是多少节？造成了多大伤亡？

I know little about the tropical cyclones of the South Pacific. Which was the strongest ever tropical cyclone of the Southern Pacific in the history? What was its maximum intensity in knots?How many casualties has it caused?

That would be Cyclone Zoe in the 2002-2003 season. It had max winds of 130kt (10-min). It's unknown how many casualties it caused.

Of note this did not kill a single person according to the seasonal summary from RSMC Nadi.

http://www.met.gov.fj/documents/TC_Seasonal_Summary_02-031190690457.pdf