JB sees (sub)tropical development that can affect Caribbean

[Ed Mahmoud]

He didn't go into any detail, just a tidbit on the morning post.

Caribbean satellite looks pretty harmless right now.

[cycloneye]

Maybe is going to come from that trough that is now in the Central Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles moving slowly westward?

[Squarethecircle]

That's what I would think; CMC (yes, yes, I know) has been hinting at development for a while, but I'd say this stays in trough form (or, I agree with all models that are not the CMC).

[Cyclone1]

Hmm... that's odd. I'l believe it when I see it, but hey, anything featuring the phrase (sub)tropical in December catches my attention.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea it even teases us for xmas time...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[wxman57]

The Canadian model develops just about every upper-level feature in the tropics. That's all we have out there now, an upper level trof/low. It was wrong in almost every case during the hurricane season, and it's almost certainly wrong now.

[Cyclone1]

It's comical, that for sure.

It's also develops an anti-Wilma over the Rockies. 1050mbar high pressure area.

[Squarethecircle]

In order to use the CMC properly, you must first discard the program.

[Derek Ortt]

if this does come to pass, may as well blame me. It would be near SF on the day of my graduation according to CMC

[JonathanBelles]

if this does come to pass, may as well blame me. It would be near SF on the day of my graduation according to CMC

lol, Ive been thinking that lately ( my HS graduation is June 3rd, it in years past has been the 2nd week of May) It was pushed right back into hurricane season.

[Cyclone1]

Maybe I get a hurricane for my birthday! (12/13)

Well, I can dream can't I?

[Squarethecircle]

Maybe I get a hurricane for my birthday! (12/13)

Well, I can dream can't I?

No, you can't. Not about that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Category 5]

JB sees (sub)tropical development that can affect Caribbean

JB sees alot of things.

[boca]

Is the area in question around 18N and 43W? It won't move west to far due to the westerlies. Doesn't JB know the westerlies would rip the heck out of this subtropical possible system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

can't post more than this, I don't want to violate any copyright, but he has linked to the FSU Canadian

THURSDAY 1 PM: I SPY WITH MY LITTLE EYE THE CHANCE WE ARE TRACKING AN EYE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Per CMC, yes.




JB also (this should get Extreme Weather Guy excited) sees possibility DFW goes from near 80 Sunday to afternoon highs in 30sF (below 4º for any Canadians) with a chance of wintry precip.

[Jam151]

1.) All models show the system continuing as far west as the western Caribbean.

2.) The only model that shows actual TC formation is the CMC. The others just show the equivalent of a decently amplified wave.

3.) JB is NOT forecasting TC development. He's simply pointing out a system that tropical wx weenies can watch.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1.) All models show the system continuing as far west as the western Caribbean.

2.) The only model that shows actual TC formation is the CMC. The others just show the equivalent of a decently amplified wave.

3.) JB is NOT forecasting TC development. He's simply pointing out a system that tropical wx weenies can watch.

That is what the "chance" in the above quote means, obviously.

[boca]

This is out of Miami NWS in their disscussion.

GFS BRINGS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...ON THE FAR NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB (NOW ANALYZED BY TAFB ALONG
ABOUT 50 WEST). HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS THIS MOISTURE FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN
LOCALLY...DECIDED TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS FURTHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA A WEEK FROM TODAY...BUT ECMWF
WAITS UNTIL THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY TO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA.

This is out of Key West NWS

AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH RIDING WESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN A MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW WILL MEAN AT LEAST A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO JUST 20
PERCENT FOR THIS STRETCH. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...AN
INCREASE TO CHANCE IS POSSIBLE DOWN THE ROAD.

On a side note I didn't know we could get easterly waves this time of year.