Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC07 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:41:30 S Lon : 178:13:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.6mb/115.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 4.8 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Center Temp : -66.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[CrazyC83]

Talk about rapid intensification...this just took off today...

[CrazyC83]

Pressure now 925mb...

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

[RL3AO]

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (06/2030Z)

I haven't seen something like in a while.

[wyq614]

“达曼”好像明显减弱了，现在只有100KT，948mb。

Daman seems to have significantly weakened, now it has only 100KT wind and a pressure of 948mb.

[HURAKAN]

Looks excellent.

[wyq614]

现在会不会重新加强一些呢？因为白天气温高。

Will it intensify a little now? As the temperature is higher during daytime.

[HURAKAN]

现在会不会重新加强一些呢？因为白天气温高。

Will it intensify a little now? As the temperature is higher during daytime.

There is no discernible change in the ocean temperature between the day and the night. If Daman weakens it's most likely because the environment it's becoming unfavorable.

[Chacor]

“达曼”好像明显减弱了，现在只有100KT，948mb。

Daman seems to have significantly weakened, now it has only 100KT wind and a pressure of 948mb.

Where is that from? At 00z it was 925 hPa and 105 kt, forecast to become 115 kt.

495
WTPS11 NFFN 070000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 07/0226 UTC 2007 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [925HPA], CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6 SOUTH 177.8 EAST AT 070000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON
RADAR, HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE NOW MOVING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE EYE IS SLIGHTLY OBSCURED AS THE SYSTEM IS LOSING A BIT OF ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SYSTEM IS
AROUND 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. CLOUD ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SHEAR INCREASING TO EAST OF
TRACK[CIMSS]. DVORAK BASED ON MG SURROUND AND OW EYE TEMP, YIELDING A
DT 6.0, PT AND MET AGREE, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONE IS
STEERED SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK PROJECTION
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 071200 UTC NEAR 15.9S 178.9E MOV ESE 05KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 080000 UTC NEAR 16.9S 179.9E MOV SE 08KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 081200 UTC NEAR 18.2S 179.1W MOV SSE 09KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 090000 UTC NEAR 19.6S 179.6W MOV SSW 07KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC DAMAN WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 070830 UTC.

[wyq614]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html这里说的，
当时是格林尼治时间0点的数据，现在是3点的，加到了110KT，但是中心气压也只有941mb。

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html says so, what you have quoted was the data of 00:00 GMT, now we have that of 03:00, the intensity increased to 110KT, but the central pressure was only 941mb.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html这里说的，
当时是格林尼治时间0点的数据，现在是3点的，加到了110KT，但是中心气压也只有941mb。

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html says so, what you have quoted was the data of 00:00 GMT, now we have that of 03:00, the intensity increased to 110KT, but the central pressure was only 941mb.

That's the JTWC's estimate using the Atkinson-Holliday wind-pressure relationship. Also, the 110/941 is the 00z ATCF entry. It won't change until 06z, even while the image changes. 925 is Fiji's.

[wyq614]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html这里说的，
当时是格林尼治时间0点的数据，现在是3点的，加到了110KT，但是中心气压也只有941mb。

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html says so, what you have quoted was the data of 00:00 GMT, now we have that of 03:00, the intensity increased to 110KT, but the central pressure was only 941mb.

That's the JTWC's estimate using the Atkinson-Holliday wind-pressure relationship. Also, the 110/941 is the 00z ATCF entry. It won't change until 06z, even while the image changes. 925 is Fiji's.

现在我明白了，谢谢。不过很多中国风迷认为，“达曼”已经开始减弱，登陆时的强度不会超过三级旋风。

Now I understand. Thank you. But many Chinese typhoon trackers believe that Daman has already begun to weaken, and when making landfall, its intensity will be no more than category 3.

[Crostorm]

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:58pm on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI,
NORTHERN LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE YASAWA GROUP, CENTRAL PARTS OF
VITI LEVU, CENTRAL LAU GROUP, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 925HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 8 EAST OR ABOUT 125 KILOMETRES
NORTH OF YASAWA OR 155 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NABOUWALU OR 190
KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 12PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS
CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 195
KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 275 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KM/HR BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER.

FOR THE VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NORTHERN LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP,
NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING
TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE AND THEN TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE
WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 195 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 275
KM/HR LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE YASAWA GROUP TODAY, AND CENTRAL PARTS OF VITI LEVU, CENTRAL
LAU GROUP, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING
GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 120 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KM/HR FROM OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF FIJI, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65
TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS,

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 35 MILES OF
CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO 90 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5PM

[Crostorm]

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 5:09pm on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI,
NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE CENTRAL LAU GROUP AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP BUT IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN YASAWAS, MAMANUCAS, KADAVU AND
SOUTHWESTERN VITI LEVU.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 925HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 140 KILOMETRES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NABOUWALU OR 150 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT
4PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 195 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 275 KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR BUT EXPECTED TO
CURVE MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

FOR THE VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NORTHERN LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS INCLUDING CIKOBIA AND KIA , WINDS INCREASING
TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE AND THEN TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE
WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 195 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 275
KM/HR LATER TONIGHT.

FOR CENTRAL LAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO
DAMAGING GALE FORCE TOMORROW. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 120 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KM/HR LATER TOMORROW.

OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM LATER
TOMORROW.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR SOUTHWESTERN VITI LEVU, KADAVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCAS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER ROTUMA FRESH AND GUSTY . PERIODS OF
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SWELLS.


The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 45 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO 75 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8PM
TODAY

[CrazyC83]

All pressure estimates are just that, estimates, with no Hurricane Hunters out there. I do think the 925mb is a bit generous...my guess is around 934mb right now (winds 115 kt).

[Crostorm]

Listen to New Zealander Murray Thomson who is on Laucala Island near Tavenui - in the bull's eye of the Cyclone.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4315734a12.html#audio

[Crostorm]

[P.K.]

WHPS01 NFFN 070600
HURRICANE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 07/0705 UTC 2007 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [925HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5
SOUTH 178.7 EAST AT 070600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.5 SOUTH 178.7 EAST AT 070600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARDS AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 64 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE AND
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.0S 179.8W AT 071800 UTC
AND NEAR 17.3S 178.3W AT 080600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.