JB sees (sub)tropical development that can affect Caribbean

[boca]

The 06GFS run shows this system moving into S FL around midweek the turning north as it gets to 80w.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

The 12z GFS shows the same scenario as the 06 GFS did as far as getting moisture into S FL.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

At least CMC today is more realistic than yesterday.

[Squarethecircle]

TS strength, it looks like, but still, CMC is wicked insane.

[cycloneye]

This is what the NWS office in San Juan is saying about this:

AWCA82 TJSJ 071957
RWSPR

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER 80S.

RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
THE AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ALSO ACROSS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW AND APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF
THESE SYSTEMS TO THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THIS WEEKEND EXPECT WET AND WINDY WEATHER AS A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS
OF SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
HALF...EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

[boca]

Judging by the satelite picture it looks like a run of the mill ULL moving WSW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

How uncommon is this feature late in the year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 0Z run (12/8/2008) run of Crazy Uncle still has a Caribbean TC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian then implies remnants of Caribbean cyclone get pulled into Big Northeast Winter Storm in 9 days.

[Squarethecircle]

This whole scenario seems a bit odd, even for the CMC, which usually gets rid of its ideas by a day or so after coming up with them (at least in my experience).

[cycloneye]

[Squarethecircle]

That is certainly very... Interesting. I don't think it'll be tropical any time soon, though.

[boca]

Because its December this feature probably won't make it passed the Dominican Republic before turning north ddue to the westerlies.

[cycloneye]

We are expecting bad weather here in Puerto Rico from this:


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081047
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
647 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 18N AND 55W ATTM (09Z). THIS UPPER
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HRS...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION LAGS BEHIND FOR A HALF A
DAY OR SO. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING MODERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE AN
AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
FILTERING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS FRINGES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN
COASTS OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. AS WEATHER DETERIORATE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DO THE SAME AS
WELL. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER LAND AREAS AND
EVEN HIGHER ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCALITIES. DURING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS CAN EASILY GUST UP TO 30 MPH.

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVE IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ANOTHER WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY AFFECT TJSJ AND
TJBQ THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AND VFR CONDS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE
AREA. HOWEVER...BY 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS
25-30 KT FIRST IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SPREADING TO ALL PR
SITES AFTER 20Z. STRONG NELY LLVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND LLWS AT TIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...AFTER 20Z LOOK FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AOA 030 ACROSS
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THEREFORE...ALL LOCAL COASTAL WATERS ARE
UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...BUT
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORIES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041

Posted this bouy because the data from it shows pretty strong winds.If it were August or September,this would already have the invest tag and be close to TD status.

[Squarethecircle]

I'm not sure; the low is not one hundred percent closed off, and seems rather trough-like.

[RL3AO]

That is interesting looking to say the least.

[Cyclone1]

*looks at calendar* Uhm... wow.

Looking surprisingly tropical.

It has my undevided attention.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1142 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FA. FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING. DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH...JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TO THE WEST APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the bad weather for us.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 082000
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CREATE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS ALL LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AS
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY AFFECTING THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE USVI AND THEY EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNSET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...IS COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO PRODUCE A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. THIS TROUGH AND PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM 20Z-00Z...AS
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND
20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SURFACE TO AT LEAST 20K
FEET...WITH STRONGER NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAILED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

[RL3AO]

TWD

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS EVENING IS THE AREA ENE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW 18N56W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG
55W FROM 14N-23N AT 08/2100 UTC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM
12N41W ALONG 18N47W TO 20N57W. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION MAINTAINING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND COULD BRING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

WALLACE