JB sees (sub)tropical development that can affect Caribbean

[JonathanBelles]

The NHC satellite calls it an invest...NRL does not however.

[Cyclone1]

NRL should be next then, if it continues to improve.

[RL3AO]

I forgot what the next number was. 95?

[cycloneye]

Invest at NHC but still not at NRL.

[HURAKAN]

Not very promising in the WV shot.

[cycloneye]

I forgot what the next number was. 95?

94L

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07111213

[boca]

Luis thats the wrong date Nov 12th and its not on the navy site.

[HURAKAN]

Luis thats the wrong date Nov 12th and its not on the navy site.

Luis is just showing the last Invest. 93L (Noel).

[boca]

Thanks Sandy, they have this system on floater 1.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Yes,I was just showing RL3AO the last invest as he asked if the next one would be 95.

[boca]

This would be a interesting if this develops to have something in December. Its not even in a favored area like the Western Caribbean,how odd.

[cycloneye]

Still the bad weather is comming to my area.

FXCA62 TJSJ 090230
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1030 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AS THE FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT REGARDLESS
OF THE OUTCOME OF EXACT TRACK...BUT AT THIS STAGE DIFFERENCES ARE
SUBSTANTIAL BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. GFS INITIALIZING CORE OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE WELL THIS EVENING AS SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CONFINING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHERN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL TRACKS IS THAT THE GFS
TAKES THE SYSTEM A GOOD 100 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
NAM...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CONVECTION MISS THE
ISLAND. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND...BRINGS THE MAIN MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND AND
NEARLY CLOSES OFF A MINOR 1011MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER VIEQUES
BY MONDAY 15Z. AS STATED ABOVE...REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST MONDAY...AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WIND SITUATION IS STILL ON TRACK AS PER THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. BOTH ETA AND GFS MOS STILL DOING AMAZINGLY WELL BRINGING
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS TO THE MAJORITY OF TAF
SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OF ON THOUGHTS OF
INITIATING A WIND ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING AND THE FACT THAT THE GUIDANCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS...ITS GOING TO BE A
WINDY AND VERY WET START TO THE WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND...IF MODEL DATA BEGINS TO AGREE MORE AS TO THE
TRACK OF THE MAIN DYNAMIC ENERGY...WE SHOULD CONSIDER A FLOOD
WATCH FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...ITS STILL EARLY...AND CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO
PLACE TOO MUCH FAITH ON 18Z RUNS.

[Jam151]

Actually, Odette in 2003 was the only tropical system to form in the Caribbean during December. Most December storms are out in the central Atlantic.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a Kate 1985 type formation, if it were to form (except 4 weeks later than Kate)

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like a Kate 1985 type formation, if it were to form (except 4 weeks later than Kate)

And didn't Kate hit Florida?


Jus' sayin'


Well, the month later thing sort of makes that unlikely, but last nights CMC did show this getting to the Yucatan, then being drawn into a really big Northeast snowstorm on Day 9.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian has it getting entangled to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and then on to Central America.

[sargeabernathy]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007

~~~

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 14N TO 23N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ALONG 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N52W TO 12N63W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...
AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STILL OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091043 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
642 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE DETECTED BY WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CARIBBEAN SEA. A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARLY
57/58W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATIONS OF ALL THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE AN SCENARIO OF
ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
DURING PASSING SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY AND MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT UNDER A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...ARE SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
THIS MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS BREAK WILL NOT LAST
LONG...SINCE SIGNIFICANTLY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&



&&

[cycloneye]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 14N TO 23N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ALONG 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N52W TO 12N63W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

[Fego]

Subtropical, tropical or just a bunch of clouds with heavy rain and strong wind, true is that four models are seeing some active weather over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

GFS


UKMT


NOGAPS


CMC