TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jasons2k]

Per latest from NWS-HGX it looks like we will stay in the warm sector until Wed.

[Portastorm]

Per latest from NWS-HGX it looks like we will stay in the warm sector until Wed.

That certainly is possible Jason for SE Texas. If you read the morning forecast discussions, seems like most Texas NWSFOs decided to agree on using the GFS for forecast beyond 12 hrs but use the NAM for the short term. However, all of them mention what a tough forecast this is and I don't blame them!

I don't know how confident I am in this forecast for Austin. The frontal boundary is perilously close to us now (about 30-40 miles to the north) and our forecast has us wavering back and forth in the relative warm air for another 48 hrs or so.

[cheezyWXguy]

MAJOR forecast bust here today. TWC said a high of 56 for us today and NWS said high 45 dropping to 40 or so this afternoon and staying through the night at around 40. right now its 36 and falling. wahoo

[Extremeweatherguy]

It continues to look like that second push of cold air, set for next Friday, could really cool us off quite a bit. This first front on Wednesday will probably just be a small taste of what is to come a few days later. As of now we are not looking for anything record-breaking or extreme, but with a lot of snow/ice pack to our north by late next week and a 1040mb+ high pressure system dropping southward to our NW, we may see a pretty decent chilly period.

Here is what the 12z GFS is showing...

Second push of chilly air begins to arrive Friday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Friday afternoon likely stuck only in the middle 50s for SE TX with 40s for north TX and 30s to below freezing in the panhandle: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

A chilly rain develops over SE Texas during Friday afternoon/evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

By Saturday morning temperatures fall into the 30s and low 40s for SE Texas and below freezing in north Texas. Also, with 850mb temperatures now below 0C in parts of E Texas, some of the lingering precipitation could be mixed with some sleet or a few snowflakes up toward Lufkin: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

Saturday afternoon features temperatures struggling to get above 50F in Austin and Houston with 30s and low to mid 40s in north Texas: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

A large area of 30s to near or below freezing temperatures cover the state Sunday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

40s and 50s Sunday afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

30s from I-10 northward Monday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[southerngale]

EWG... nothing personal as this is directed at the GFS, but blah blah blah blah blah. It's always nearly (or over) a week away, but it never gets here.

I think this is our winter. Who's up for a BBQ? We can have it at my parent's house because they have a pool. We can play volleyball and I'll bring a slip-n-slide as well. Horseshoes, anyone?



(and yes, I know... "never" was too strong a word... we did have some cool nights and got down to 29° one night, but you get the point)

[jeff]

Front continues to move southward under its own density....look at local 88D's and SPC meso analysis and you can clearly see it is moving southward. Toss the GFS and use the RUC/NAM12 for frontal timing and position. Based on current movement I expect the front to reach at least I-10 and maybe the coast overnight tonight...then begin to back northward on Monday. Very strong temp. gradient should be expected of at least 20-25 degrees across the area as the boundary waves back and forth.

[jasons2k]

Yep, I see it has pushed through Austin. Moving south a bit faster today than I expected...maybe we'll get a decent storm or two out of this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG... nothing personal as this is directed at the GFS, but blah blah blah blah blah. It's always nearly (or over) a week away, but it never gets here.

I think this is our winter. Who's up for a BBQ? We can have it at my parent's house because they have a pool. We can play volleyball and I'll bring a slip-n-slide as well. Horseshoes, anyone?



(and yes, I know... "never" was too strong a word... we did have some cool nights and got down to 29° one night, but you get the point)

Next Friday morning is only 5 days away though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. This has to be one of the greatest temperature spreads I have seen in a long time. It is 25 in parts of the panhandle and 84 in parts of south TX. That is a nearly SIXTY DEGREE statewide range!

[jasons2k]

No different than comparing Tampa to Indianapolis...we just happen to live in a big state.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No different than comparing Tampa to Indianapolis...we just happen to live in a big state.

I disagree.


Look at that map. There is some serious packing of the isotherms.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FYI for those in the Fort Worth area... The new forecast low for you guys is 32F and you are currently sitting at 33F. With rain likely continuing, do not be surprised to see some icing up in that area. I know there are no advisories for your area now, but do not be surprised to see them get extended southeastward overnight.

Also, Dallas needs to keep close watch as well. Your low is expected to be 33F, so you will be right on the edge.

[cheezyWXguy]

FYI for those in the Fort Worth area... The new forecast low for you guys is 32F and you are currently sitting at 33F. With rain likely continuing, do not be surprised to see some icing up in that area. I know there are no advisories for your area now, but do not be surprised to see them get extended southeastward overnight.

Also, Dallas needs to keep close watch as well. Your low is expected to be 33F, so you will be right on the edge.

Yeah Im keeping an eye out. Our temperature according to weatherbug, has been hovering around 34 degrees and our low tonight is 32 with rain. I think theyre being a little conservative right now. While i dont think there will be an immediate threat of significant accumulations, if we get below freezing here and those freezing showers/thunderstorms off to the west build over to the DFW area, we could pick up some decent accumulations quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm. This is interesting. David Paul of KHOU11 does not think this front will lift back through Houston tonight. He has a forecast of 55 tomorrow with rain showers. I wonder who will be right? The NWS? or David Paul?

[cheezyWXguy]

Haha. Well I think ill eat my crow now. Absolutely nothing happened because we maintained at 33 degrees.

[jasons2k]

No different than comparing Tampa to Indianapolis...we just happen to live in a big state.

I disagree.

Look at that map. There is some serious packing of the isotherms.

I never said there wasn't. Comparing the weather of Dalhart to Brownsville is about the same as comparing Indy to Tampa, at least distance-wise. I used Tampa/Indy as an example to show just how far apart ~800 miles is - which meterologially speaking is pretty far apart.

The point I was making is that people often talk about how big a temp. difference there is in "the state of Texas", like it's something special. What else would one expect from an 800 mile and 4000ft. elevation change? It's really not that big of a deal from a purely geographic point of view....they should be expected to be completely different.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Super arctic front has blasted through Houston at about 6 am, 72ºF at Hobby, 58º chilly degrees with occnl showers at Intercontinental.

[gboudx]

Haha. Well I think ill eat my crow now. Absolutely nothing happened because we maintained at 33 degrees.

Yeah, there will be no icing from this event in the DFW Metro area. So far, all the rain we were supposed to have has failed to materialize as well, but that could change into mid-week. This is gonna be a cold rain and nothing more. Which suits me just fine, because I don't want any of that ice. That's a nightmare to drive on.

[jinftl]

Last weeks GFS for the current week....has anyone doen any type of verification analysis...it is amazing that just a week ago, the forecast using this model is the 'polar' opposite..no pun intended.

Sure, the GFS and the current forecast do make use of the words 'cold front'...although with a 30-40 degree difference in forecast vs. actual temperatures....but even a broken clock is right twice a day!!!

The 18z GFS is coming in now, and it looks very cold for next week. Take a look...

Front pushes into north Texas late Sunday night: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

By Monday morning, freezing rain and sleet is falling as far south as Dallas and the leading edge of the front is quickly approaching Houston: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

Monday afternoon looks Chilly. Many parts of north Texas struggle to get out of the 20s and 30s (with freezing rain, sleet and snow) and in central and southeast Texas, temperatures are steadily falling with rain and breezy north winds: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

The rain and cold continues into Tuesday with another day in the 30s and 40s for north Texas and 40s and 50s for everyone else: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

Wednesday morning looks very cold. A reinforcing 1043mb+ high to our northwest helps usher in a large area of temperatures in the 10s, 20s and 30s across the state (with a breeze): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

Wednesday afternoon is one of the coldest of the bunch. This run is showing highs Below freezing in the panhandle, in the 30s for north Texas and in the 40s for Houston and Austin: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

What is really exciting about this run is the fact that it has all of this happening within the next week! No longer are we talking long-range predictions here, instead this is now within the short to medium range time scale and much more believable.

[jasons2k]

It happens several times a year, every year. That's why most of us know what G-F-S stands for...and just roll our eyes when people get all worked-up over it.

Last weeks GFS for the current week....has anyone doen any type of verification analysis...it is amazing that just a week ago, the forecast using this model is the 'polar' opposite..no pun intended.

Sure, the GFS and the current forecast do make use of the words 'cold front'...although with a 30-40 degree difference in forecast vs. actual temperatures....but even a broken clock is right twice a day!!!