OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

The best of the non-tropical disturbances this year.

[Vortex]

I'm impressed!

[HURAKAN]

FYI!!!

[curtadams]

If their is a projected cold front to enter the picture for Florida wouldn't the SW flow in front direct 94L up towards Florida to give us the rain we need.The high is forecast to move east and be pushed south which I think would turn 94L more northwesterly rather than WSW into Central America like wxman57 elluded too.

Amazingly, the globals all concur on a ridge from FL far out into the Atlantic with front activity confined to north of there.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Certainly not typical Christmas weather!

Incidentally, I wouldn't call this nontropical. The arc of storms around a LLC looks subtropical to me. Certainly not tropical, true.

[Ladybbird]

Hope I can get this through to you, just having one of our many power cuts. Thanks for the info, Any idea when it is going to hit us, being as I am on the seafront in the North of the DR, its not looking good. I dread this season every year, I thought it was over but this has popped up out of nowhere

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 101549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS
FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Evil Jeremy]

GAH! You always beat me to it!

It appears to me that they are using Special Tropical Disturbance Statements as a substitute for the TWO during the off season, issued at 6 hour intervals.

[CrazyC83]

Closed circulation? That should mean TD17 (or TS Olga)...

Are there any plans to send Recon out?

[wxman57]

A few thoughts and some predictions.

The low level center is separating farther from the convection, which is easily seen on the latest satellite image with surface obs. The very weak LLC is moving into the NE Caribbean now:



Model guidance remains quite consistent in taking it WSW into the Caribbean and toward Central America. Such a track seems quite reasonable, given the low-mid level wind flow from the ENE-E.



As for those of you "wishing" for development and/or movement toward Florida, I'm afraid you'll have to wait for 2008 and beyond. Take a look at what the disturbance will be running into over the next 3-4 days. W-WNW flow aloft at 50-80 kts across the northern and central to eastern Caribbean. That's NOT July/August flow out there folks, it's winter flow. Combine that strong west wind aloft with 20-30 kt mid-level easterlies and you have a recipe for destruction. This disturbance is moving into a hostile environment. It's development chances are about over.



Now, I have 5 more work days this year then I'm gone until Jan 2. I'll have no more post-season surprises from the tropics!

[Jam151]

Closed circulation? That should mean TD17 (or TS Olga)...

That was my thought as well.

They aren't upgrading because showers are still disorganized. Talk about inconsistent, look at the multiple naked circulations that were carried as TDs or TSs in the past.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Closer.

[gatorcane]

Wxman if the LLC relocates into the deeper convection to the north your forecast is shot

Seems quite reasonable it might given how disogranized the current weak LLC is now.

[boca]

Looks like the exposed center moved up into the dense overcast now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Frank2]

When I hear that "gradually becoming less favorable" comment from the NHC, it concerns me - we'll see what happens...

P.S. Per the above comments, weak systems often have multiple LLC's (I forget the scientific reference, but, this finding was published some time ago), so, that's not unusual to see...

[boca]

Granted its not August or September but shear its decreasing according to the map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html

[gatorcane]

You can definitely see the LLC bumping more WNW over the past hour or so as it tries to get into the convection to the north.

You can see it here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Remember Noel...many of us initially took it into the NW Caribbean.

Look where it ended up.

It's December I can't see it heading into Central America, sorry.

[wxman57]

Granted its not August or September but shear its decreasing according to the map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html

That's a shear tendency map. Wind shear is a good 50 kts in the path of the disturbance. GFS forecasts westerlies in the northern Caribbean to increase over the next 24-48 hours. It's doomed.

[Frank2]

Thanks for the word of encouragement - I was about to start thinking of whether I should call my favorite "evacuation" hotel...

LOL