OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

Granted its not August or September but shear its decreasing according to the map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html

That's a shear tendency map. Wind shear is a good 50 kts in the path of the disturbance. GFS forecasts westerlies in the northern Caribbean to increase over the next 24-48 hours. It's doomed.

Hey Wxman do you also have a bet that nothing will hit Florida in 2007???

Seems like it

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

You have to base your forecast on real data, not on where you want a system to go. Take a look at the mean 700-400mb wind flow across the Caribbean. Straight NE to SW. The disturbance would have to more perpendicular to the wind flow to reach Florida. That's not going to happen.

You can definitely see the LLC bumping more WNW over the past hour or so as it tries to get into the convection to the north.

You can see it here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Remember Noel...many of us initially took it into the NW Caribbean.

Look where it ended up.

It's December I can't see it heading into Central America, sorry.

[boca]

Wxman57 I just want a good rain from 94L or a cold front I don't care just rain.

[caribepr]

No doubt the numerous sailors & their families who have ducked into our bay for safety on their way to someplace else will be glad for doomed-ness!
And the ferry & plane passengers (read mainly tourists with schedules), or those from here with doctor appts. who won't get to leave Culebra today because the seas, at 14 feet, are too rough and the gusts are too strong to go back to Fajardo/San Juan, so they have to rent rooms and change reservations. Etc. etc.
Yep, just another wacky paradise non-event...glad we're on the good side!!

[wxman57]

Wxman57 I just want a good rain from 94L or a cold front I don't care just rain.

Better hope for a cold front, then. However, the pattern setting up is for a warm and dry winter for Florida.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

http://www.ptmpr.com/weather.html

Refresh it and you will get the latest observations from the Moscoso Bridge Station located near the San Juan International Airport.I am getting a rainband as I type this.

[cycloneye]

WTNT01 KNGU 101200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101200Z DEC 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 62.0W TO 18.5N 68.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 62.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111200Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[JonathanBelles]

Why is the text you post so big Luis?

[Evil Jeremy]

WTNT01 KNGU 101200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101200Z DEC 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 62.0W TO 18.5N 68.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 62.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111200Z.
//

Interesting how the square is pointing WNW rather than WSW

[cycloneye]

Why is the text you post so big Luis?

I put the text in the large scale where it says font size on the upper right part of the posting window.

[Stratosphere747]

That TCFA has been out for about 8hrs now, and there really isn't any significance of where the box is pointing.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, estás en el rectángulo del peligro.

Luis, you're in the rectangle of danger.

[HURAKAN]

Looks good enough to be a subtropical or tropical cyclone.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the convection is "lifting" northward while the LLC is moving westward:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

It's truly amazing how zonal the flow is across the Northern US and Atlantic for mid December. This means 94L shouldn't come much more north at least not for the next 4-5 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[JonathanBelles]

Why is the text you post so big Luis?

I put the text in the large scale where it says font size on the upper right part of the posting window.

I knew that, but does it have to be that big?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 10 2007

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A CLOSED SFC LOW HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRES
AREA ABOUT 100 NM E OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N64W. SLY WIND SHEAR
IS PRODUCING A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE
DENSE CLOUDINESS GROUPED TO THE N OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
PERSISTING FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 57W-66W. WINDS ARE ALSO
STRONGEST N OF THE CENTER ENHANCED BY A TIGHT PRES PATTERN
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NE OF
BERMUDA. IN ACCORDANCE...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
19N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THESE STRONG WINDS AND A LONG NE/E
FETCH IS PRODUCING DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS AS DEPICTED BY BUOY
41043 LOCATED NEAR 21N65W WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 15 FT
SEAS. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS
FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15-20 KT. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.