OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Jam151]

I'm still not convinced there is a closed, low level circulation. Unless I am missing something (feel free to prove me wrong, I've been gone all day).

NHC confirmed one exists in the 11AM special tropical disturbance statement:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

[wxman57]

I'm still not convinced there is a closed, low level circulation. Unless I am missing something (feel free to prove me wrong, I've been gone all day).

NHC confirmed one exists in the 11AM special tropical disturbance statement:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

Surface obs do show a broad, weak low center near 18.3N/64W as of 3PM CST. Winds around the low are in the 10-15 kt range (a bit less than that south and east of the center). All squalls are detached to the north of the weak low.

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 102154
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS
AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

"Give me liberty or give me Olga."

[RL3AO]

Doesn't sound like they are too interested in upgrading it. Unless some convection develops over the center, Olga might have to wait until 2013.

[CrazyC83]

For all we know, it may be a tropical cyclone and may have been for a while...

[cycloneye]

For all we know, it may be a tropical cyclone and may have been for a while...

Post analysis of this system will be interesting.

[bvigal]

OK, I'm looking at SFWMD model map which lists the bams for 10/18z. Does anybody know where the text file is hidden? Because I'm not finding it in the usual places, only 12z one.

[JonathanBelles]

For all we know, it may be a tropical cyclone and may have been for a while...

Post analysis of this system will be interesting.

Ive been thinking it was an STD or STS since between the (would be) 10am-4p adv.

[Cyclone1]

I know I can't wait until 11 tonight.

Looks like that may be it's best shot at an upgrade.

[RL3AO]

Looks like new convection developing just to the NE of PR, on the NW side of the LLC.

[cycloneye]

[caribepr]

That's quite a view, Luis! We have a good lightning show starting in the North...and it's chilly!

Looking at the close up radar the rain of it seems to be rolling right above us and into the SJ area (I love the wind direction arrows they've added!)

[cycloneye]

Look to just north of St Thomas.

[bvigal]

Luis, it's headed right for you! But seriously, there have been some impressive wind gusts and wave ht readings with this system. Seas as good as during Dean.
St. Thomas 16 kt, 28 kt gusts, NW
Roosevelt Road 17 kt, 23 kt gusts, NNE
St. Maarten 10kt S
ships
1800z 18.5/63.8 22kt
1800z 18.6/66.2 33kt
1800z 20.9/62.5 27kt with 13.1ft waves, swell ht 16.4ft 10sec
1900z 20.4/59.2 36.9kt with 16.4ft waves, swell ht 14.8 6sec
2100z 19.0/66.5 29kt

buoy 41043 21N 65W had readings of 27.2kt sustained with gusts 35kt and wave ht 17.4ft!!! For mainlanders, this is about 188 miles NNE of San Juan

[bvigal]

Hiya MJ! Hunker down! Sure getting some good blasts of wind here, already put out power once, but I have my lantern filled and lit. In between, it's almost calm and the froggies are happy!

That's quite a view, Luis! We have a good lightning show starting in the North...and it's chilly!

Looking at the close up radar the rain of it seems to be rolling right above us and into the SJ area (I love the wind direction arrows they've added!)

[RL3AO]

I found a SW wind from a ship at 21z. Only 8kt though. 17.0N, 61.8W.

[caribepr]

Luis, stormcarib has a St. Thomas report - they are getting it for sure!
I'm hunkered, I'm hunkered! Ok...I'm in a cozy robe with a warm libation and a good book. Does that count? Need any socks, girl?

[JonathanBelles]

Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI

Overcast
75°F
(24°C)
Humidity: 89 %
Wind Speed: NW 18 G 37 MPH
Barometer: 29.76"
Dewpoint: 72°F (22°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

[cycloneye]

Below is a message from St Thomas that was posted at stormcarib.com:

From: "Jane Higgins" <jhigginswear at islands.vi>
Date: Mon, 10 Dec 2007 17:24:08 -0400

The wind is howling enough now to stir up some old feelings ; you storm veterans know what I mean. That whistling "whew"
and the sound of something suddenly falling over or getting knocked by something. My husband closed the storm shutters
on the North side and some of the larger potted plants are already laying down along with the big umbrellas. Yesterday around
2:30 pm a huge gust picked up the 9ft rectangular umbrella off of the deck out it's secure weighted stand (?)
and carried to the top of the roof.... by the time the ladder had been
put up to retrieve it , the umbrella came back down almost in the same spot with a ferocious pounce; glad I wasn't standing under
it at the time; being impaled does not sound like a cool way to go.

We are blustery, gusty, cloudy, cool, with spits of moisture. The Atlantic looks intimidating and cold; very choppy. I guess
I would have passed on that wedding invitation in the BVI if I would have received one. No matter how rich you are you can't
control the weather and I bet their was some "cleaning" up to do on some yachts this weekend. The helicopters and
charter planes are very busy getting guests out from the big event and my husband pilot/mechanic just said he was glad
to not fly today. Thanks so much to the Mermaid for keeping us up to date on the event.....the sites she posted are
great! I may actually play the lottery in hopes of week at Necker Island.

We have every window and shutter rolled shut and the storm shutters closed on the North side and I can still feel the
wind moving around my ankles all thru the house.

Stay safe and dry. I'd love to hear from our friends in Anguilla, where this wind is almost normal on any given day,
can't imagine what it is like today, hope you guys get some rain.

http://stormcarib.com/