Forgive me if this isn't the correct venue for these.
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Subtropical Storm OLGA (17L)
TIME: 0300 UTC 11 December 2007
FCST: 01
PSTN: 18.7°N 65.0°W POOR (XTRAP 0145Z GOES-10 IR2/IR4 loop)
WIND: 35 kt
PRES: 1006 hPa
MOVE: W 13 kt
Tropical disturbance NE of US Virgin Islands has strengthened into a subtropical storm, Olga (17L). The system has increased in organization since the previous tropical disturbance advisory, with more intense convection developing near (but still 0.5 degree from) a developing low-level circulation center obscured by a stronger circulation at the upper levels. Poleward outflow from the system is excellent and is allowing it to survive in a marginal environment. However, strong subsidence from dry air and stronger wind shear has made the southern semicircle of the system nonexistent; most of the convection is to the north and west of the center. Dvorak fixes of T2.0/2.0 from SAB and T2.5/2.5 from TAFB, and 10-minute average winds of 30 kt from nearby buoy 41043 mean the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.
Not all global models pick up this system; the ones that do take it nearly due west or west-southwest with little intensification. No intensification is forecast before the system moves over Hispaniola in about 12 to 18 hours; rapid weakening is expected after that due to land interaction and a substantial increase in wind shear. The forecast track is along the lines of the consensus of ECMWF/UKMO/GFS/NOGAPS/GFDL models.
12HR FCST: 18.6°N 67.4°W
WIND/PRES: 35 kt/1007 hPa
24HR FCST: 18.3°N 69.8°W
WIND/PRES: 30 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipating as a significant subtropical cyclone over water
36HR FCST: 17.7°N 72.1°W
WIND/PRES: 20 kt/1012 hPa
Dissipating as a significant subtropical cyclone over water
48HR FCST: 17.1°N 74.2°W
WIND/PRES: DISSIPATED
Dissipated as a significant subtropical cyclone over water
Next update: N/A
Next forecast: 1500 UTC 11 December 2007
Weaver
