OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[MGC]

I'm not surprised with the upgrade. This system has been getting better organized all day. STS Olga won't last long, the mountains of Hispaniola will tear her apart.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110552
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
200 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...OLGA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE MANZANILLO
AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN HAITI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLGA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
240 MILES...385 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
OLGA WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043 INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. SAN
JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005.8
MB...29.70 INCHES.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...66.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to be purely tropical. Nice "band" around a well defined LLC.

[Rainband]

I am amazed there is a system in December. Albeit a short lived one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system appears to have made landfall over northwestern PR. In is now moving west-southwest or southwestward across the island. If it go's south far enough it might go south of DR/hati.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
500 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...CENTER OF OLGA HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN HAITI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLGA...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...WEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF OLGA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO LATER THIS
MORNING...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE OLGA REACHES
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS
OLGA INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[vegastar]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110842
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REVEALS THAT THE
CENTER OF OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THAT
ISLAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AT A WESTWARD HEADING OF 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT. OLGA SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL
DECLINE...GIVEN A SLIGHT THINNING OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY...WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A
DECREASE IN LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...HOWEVER...BASED ON THE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS OF ABOUT 40 KT FROM A FEW SHIPS AND NOAA BUOY
41043. THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM A FORTUITOUS ASCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0206Z. FOR NOW WE WILL
RETAIN THE SUBTROPICAL DESIGNATION FOR OLGA SINCE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED
ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY...SO OLGA COULD SOON MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...SINCE A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY STEER OLGA ON
A CONTINUED WESTWARD PATH OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EXACT PATH OF THE CENTER ITSELF IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THIS CASE...SINCE MOST OF THE
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
DUE TO OLGA'S DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO REACHING HISPANIOLA APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM.
WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS OLGA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IF
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SURVIVES THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 18.5N 67.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.5N 69.4W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 72.8W 30 KT...NEAR COAST OF HAITI
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 76.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.5N 79.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 83.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

Still Suptropical...

[curtadams]

By Puerto Rico radar, it looks to be south of the forecast and moving off the SW corner of PR. It's also a remnant low already - PR did it in.

[caribepr]

With this report from the Dominican Republic this morning on stormcarib.com I wouldn't say Olga is exactly *done in* yet...

The outer bands of bad Olga have reached Samaná and we are getting very heavy
showers in gusty winds.
From what I can see on various sites this is just the beginning of it and the
DR is right in Olga's path.
I had to get up and soak up water which the storm had pressed through the
sliding door rails.
I guess the kids will have a day off from school today....
Stay dry.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111156
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
800 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...CENTER OF OLGA NOW JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE...
...RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN HAITI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLGA...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...75 KM...EAST OF CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC....AND
ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OLGA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE
NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE OLGA REACHES THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS OLGA INTERACTS
WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...18.4 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[Squarethecircle]

This looks like a further blend of subtropical and tropical to me, although I'd think, earlier in the season, they'd still regard it as subtropical (mostly because of the wind field, and the core data is somewhat inconclusive). I'd take a bet that it will last at least until tonight.

[wxman57]

The ridge to the north looks a little bit weaker than earlier. Also, where is this shear supposed to be coming from?

I'm not sure what you're looking at to determine there's no shear in Olga's path. Take a look at the 00hr GFS 200mb winds across the northern Caribbean and you'll see westerly winds at 50-70 kts. Here, look at the jet core running south of Cuba, north of Jamaica, and across the northern Caribbean south of the DR:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_200_006l.gif

You have a storm moving to the west at 15kts into upper-level headwinds at 50-70 kts. Not exactly a favorable environment. Radar and satellite show all squalls are now well northeast of the center. Olga peaked overnight. It's all downhill from here. Just a rain event for the DR followed by dissipation of the circulation. But that "just rain" could amount to 15-20 inches over the mountains, maybe more. The rain will be A LOT bigger problem than any wind.

[cycloneye]

The rain will be A LOT bigger problem than any wind.

Llke what has occured in Puerto Rico.Minor problems with the winds (Higest wind reported at NWS 37 mph),but plenty of flooding and mudslides reports (See Threat areas thread).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:


SHIP S 1200 19.30 -65.90 79 52 80 44.7 - 19.7 4.0 - - 29.77 +0.09 77.5 - 71.6

[wxman57]

Here's why Olga won't last long. Take a look at the 200mb flow across its path today (first image) and in 48 hours (second image). Ripping westerly winds at 200mb (50-70 kts). And look across the Gulf and Florida. Upper winds there only increase with time. This isn't going toward Florida.

This morning 200mb:


Thursday 200mb:

[Evil Jeremy]

What would happen if she continues WSW or SW and completely misses the mountains for Haiti and the DR?

[wxman57]

What would happen if she continues WSW or SW and completely misses the mountains for Haiti and the DR?

The 50-70 kt upper-level westerly winds across the northern Caribbean would tear it up.

[Evil Jeremy]

Something that has been generally overlooked is that Jamaica is going to be getting alot more unneeded rain.

[boca]

South Florida will get the leftover moisture from Olga according to the NWS in Miami. Our rain chances are at 40%.

[wxman57]

South Florida will get the leftover moisture from Olga according to the NWS in Miami. Our rain chances are at 40%.

I suppose that's possible, along with some instability from the upper low. But I wouldn't hold my breath as far as significant rainfall.