OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[boca]

Wxman57 this is from the NWS in Miami. We could really use the rain, from Olga or a cold front I don't care as long as it rains.
OLGA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA
AND DISSIPATE...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AFTER IT TRAVERSES THIS
MOUNTAINOUS ISLAND. SO LIKELY THERE WILL BE JUST AN OPEN SURFACE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CARIB THU-FRI...AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE THU
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS THU/FRI...SO INCREASED POPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

[cycloneye]

615
WHXX01 KWBC 111251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA (AL172007) 20071211 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071211 1200 071212 0000 071212 1200 071213 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 67.6W 18.7N 71.0W 19.1N 75.0W 19.6N 78.8W
BAMD 18.2N 67.6W 18.8N 68.9W 19.7N 70.5W 20.4N 72.2W
BAMM 18.2N 67.6W 18.5N 70.3W 18.9N 73.0W 19.5N 75.7W
LBAR 18.2N 67.6W 18.4N 69.6W 18.7N 71.7W 18.9N 73.7W
SHIP 40KTS 39KTS 34KTS 27KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071213 1200 071214 1200 071215 1200 071216 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 82.1W 19.9N 86.3W 22.0N 89.0W 25.9N 81.7W
BAMD 20.7N 74.0W 20.7N 76.7W 20.1N 79.0W 22.7N 78.3W
BAMM 19.9N 78.3W 21.0N 82.1W 22.8N 84.2W 31.5N 73.7W
LBAR 19.0N 75.7W 19.2N 79.4W 17.8N 82.2W 16.8N 83.5W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 67.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 64.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 61.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Blown Away]

Look like Olga is moving more WSW than West now.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Olga is clearly in between Puerto Rico and the DR right now. It looks like the core of Olga will miss the tallest mountains, so it should remain intact for now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[Evil Jeremy]

There is no doubt that Olga is fighting hard. Despite the mountainous terrain and the shear ahead, Olga is maintaining an organized core and convection seems to be firing up again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111448
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS AT THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...WEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

OLGA IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TOMORROW AS OLGA ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

OLGA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043...ABOUT 270
MILES FROM THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40
MPH WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N...68.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN






000
WTNT22 KNHC 111450
TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1500 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS AT THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 0SE 0SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.2N 77.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 80.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 68.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





000
WTNT42 KNHC 111450
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

RECENT BUOY...QUIKSCAT...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT OLGA'S PEAK
WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT...AND EXTEND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATED. THE STRUCTURE OF OLGA...WITH ITS STRONGEST
WINDS LOCATED STILL 100-200 NMI FROM CENTER...CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OLGA ON A BASIC
WESTWARD PATH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS.

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF OLGA WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AWAY FROM THE
CENTER...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO...AND
WHEN THIS HAPPENS OLGA SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS
ALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.
THESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHERE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 18.1N 68.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 18.0N 70.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.1N 74.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.2N 77.4W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.2N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 85.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Olga, you look naked, put some clothes!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Olga is still very organized. How long it tomorrow's shear supposed to last for?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is recon still flying out into this today?

[jinftl]

Is a larger than originally thought wind field the rationale behind the mention in the 11AM advisory of 'possible tropical storm watches or warnings' for the Turks & Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas later on? Doesn't appear there has been a northern shift to the forecast track.

[Chacor]

Is recon still flying out into this today?

Nope, doesn't look like it.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST TUE 11 DEC 2007
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-011

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.
FLIGHT ONE - 13/12Z, TRACK A61, FLOWN CW, CP ATLIK
FLIGHT TWO 14/00Z, TRACK A61, FLOWN CCW, CP ACK

NOTE: TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS.....NEGATIVE
SMR

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

No go.

[Blown Away]

Is a larger than originally thought wind field the rationale behind the mention in the 11AM advisory of 'possible tropical storm watches or warnings' for the Turks & Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas later on? Doesn't appear there has been a northern shift to the forecast track.

The LLC is very clear and naked between PR & DR moving WSW. All the convection is well removed to the N of DR.

[Evil Jeremy]

Still says they are flying out on the plan for today!

[cycloneye]

Still says they are flying out on the plan for today!

Those are winter missions.

[Chacor]

Don't think it's that difficult to understand what "Tropical cyclone requirements - negative" means...

[Evil Jeremy]

this is what it says under today's plan:

NOTE: (ADDED) TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS...A RESOURCES
PERMITTING LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A SUSPECT AREA NEAR
HISPANIOLA:
FLIGHT ONE--TEAL 70
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 11/1530Z
D. 18.5N 68.0W
E. 11/1500Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
SEF


I know that was added yesterday, but it is on todays plan. Why?

[Chacor]

this is what it says under today's plan:

NOTE: (ADDED) TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS...A RESOURCES
PERMITTING LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A SUSPECT AREA NEAR
HISPANIOLA:
FLIGHT ONE--TEAL 70
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 11/1530Z
D. 18.5N 68.0W
E. 11/1500Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
SEF


I know that was added yesterday, but it is on todays plan. Why?

Plans are always issued one day in advance.
Today's issuance for tomorrow cancelled that flight.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it me, or did Olga just make a small jump to the WNW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html