OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[cpdaman]

well does anyone really think olga will have hurricane force winds anyway

it seems a few hours east of the mountains which begin in earnest near 70.5 west longitude

unless of course the weakness in the ridge is strong enough to some how turn this WNW at a 300 heading

[CrazyC83]

One wonders if Olga was stronger before landfall? Or is there enough energy being sapped in to hold her strength over land?

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 112334
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
800 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS OLGA A LITTLE STRONGER WITH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT OLGA HAS TRANSITIONED
TO A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM... NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JUST SOUTH
OF BAHIA DE SAMANA.

OLGA IS MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. COPEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
JUST MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

I still feel like it's late september...

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
COPEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.

If it was late September, we certainly wouldn't also be talking about an ice storm in the Midwest...

[Cyclenall]

I'm giving it a 1% chance to reach hurricane strength some time in it's life.

[brunota2003]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

Hmmm...interesting track there. According to the data, was a 50 mph tropical storm while moving overhead here. THAT would be nuts...could you imagine the reactions of people to a strong tropical storm hitting NC and a Cat 2 hurricane hitting Florida in December? That'd be insane!

[Squarethecircle]

It would cause a media frenzy, and might even vindicate Gray, though not at all fully.

[Cyclone1]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

Hmmm...interesting track there. According to the data, was a 50 mph tropical storm while moving overhead here. THAT would be nuts...could you imagine the reactions of people to a strong tropical storm hitting NC and a Cat 2 hurricane hitting Florida in December? That'd be insane!

Yeah, it was only a tropical storm, and it hit in November.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

Actually, it hit Florida as a tropical storm in November, becoming a category two over the gulf stream in December.

thanks for that correction!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ok, this started to get insane right about four minutes ago.

Oh, and it's back over water as of something like thirty minutes ago, too.

Yes because of the advisory stating 60 mph that's pretty CLOSE to a Hurricane!!!!

[brunota2003]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

Hmmm...interesting track there. According to the data, was a 50 mph tropical storm while moving overhead here. THAT would be nuts...could you imagine the reactions of people to a strong tropical storm hitting NC and a Cat 2 hurricane hitting Florida in December? That'd be insane!

Yeah, it was only a tropical storm, and it hit in November.

I saw that post after I posted...But it still hit here (coastal NC) as a 50 mph TS

[AnnularCane]

60 mph? I'm sort of confused. Isn't Olga over land?

[CrazyC83]

60 mph? I'm sort of confused. Isn't Olga over land?

It's probably been that strong or stronger since well before landfall, unless it is tapping into baroclinic energy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection part of olga over water gathered strength apparently.

[CrazyC83]

The strength change shows why aircraft data is invaluable in terms of provide a source of data for storm intensity. Hopefully other countries - or private companies - will invest in such for other areas.

[Recurve]

Latest GRL3 as Olga moves away. SE end of Puerto Rico getting heavy band, looks like San Juan will get squals again

[cpdaman]

it is a few hours away from hiking in the hispanola mountains

right now it is trekking through the east central part of the peninsula the part that is thinner

the breeze has picked up quite nicely by the beach in SE florida


is there any chance or reason to believe this could take another unexpected "hop" WNW and avoid the meat of the mountains to "die another day"

[Squarethecircle]

60 mph? I'm sort of confused. Isn't Olga over land?

Officially, no, but the sat pictures suggest it well could be.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Satellite

[HURAKAN]

Maybe La Niña is now making itself heard.