OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

ZOMG its going to the GOM!

It may be completely dissipated by then...

Anyway, unless new convection comes, the 21Z advisory will be the last.

[Brent]

ZOMG its going to the GOM!

Well it was fun while it lasted. Bye Olga.

[jinftl]

No need to panic...we are talking about a dissipating system moving into progressively colder water....

ZOMG its going to the GOM!

[Sanibel]

Looks like the rain will miss us to the south.

I think this would have gotten somewhat stronger if it hadn't gone over land. Hispaniola stripped the system and dry air ate it up from the west. Hoping it catches the front and recurves towards us with rain...

[Chacor]

No one was panicking, there was heavy sarcasm laced in RL3AO's post that I'm surprised wasn't picked up.

[HURAKAN]

Rain affects eastern Cuba.

[jinftl]

i was panicking!!! completely freaked out actually!!!

No one was panicking, there was heavy sarcasm laced in RL3AO's post that I'm surprised wasn't picked up.

[Sanibel]

85* here for the last few days. This near-solstice heat wave probably kicked up the system.

[Evil Jeremy]

There is still a circulation left and can be seen in the loop heading WSW. It looks like it is trying hard to stay in one piece, and the inflow is still there. You can see that the storm is surviving better in the lower levels though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

The water is warmer now than when it started...but I need to look at the shear...

[CrazyC83]

Only about 15 kt of shear around it and decreasing. Big time shear if it dips south though...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

There is still a circulation left and can be seen in the loop heading WSW. It looks like it is trying hard to stay in one piece, and the inflow is still there. You can see that the storm is surviving better in the lower levels though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I don't know. Winds south of the low center across Jamaica are from the NE and ENE rather than westerly. I think it's history.

[Evil Jeremy]

If this picture on the NRL is of any indication, Olga is a fighter.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

[Sanibel]

Wicked dry december air to the west should choke off any SST gain.

[wxman57]

Take a look at this recent surface/satellite plot I made. Note that the winds south of what was Olga's center are not from the west. Also note that the average winds north of Olga are in the 10-20 kt range. There's one ship to the northeast in a squall with a 30kt wind. This isn't a TS any more and it wouldn't qualify for upgrading to a TD. Wind shear is steadily increasing and is forecast to continue to increase. NHC will certainly downgrade it on the intermediate advisory and I bet the 21Z advisory is the final.

[HURAKAN]

Olga, it was nice getting this Christmas surprise, thanks!! Now, let go!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

wxman, I don't mean to talk bad about you, but you have been wrong alot with this storm so far. At first, you didn't even think it would form, then you thought it would only last for about 12-18 hours, and you said that it would be killed by the mountains, which didn't happen. And yesterday you were saying to expect shear in excess of 50kt, but now you are saying that the westerlies are below the storm. You were also wrong partially with Noel. I am not saying your not great, because you are. I am just saying that you put so much confidence in your forecasts, but they are not always right. Your amazing and a great forecaster who explains all of the facts, but you give little room for error.

[Squarethecircle]

Also, there is the possibility that those winds that are being recorded are not directly caused by the storm; the wind field could be only confined to a very small area. After all, the storm has gotten much weaker and smaller today. And I believe it doesn't make sense for a cyclonic storm void of fronts to have all of its winds blowing from the east. Just saying, you know.

[RL3AO]

No one was panicking, there was heavy sarcasm laced in RL3AO's post that I'm surprised wasn't picked up.

Thank you.

Usually implies sarcasm. So does ZOMG.

[wxman57]

wxman, I don't mean to talk bad about you, but you have been wrong alot with this storm so far. At first, you didn't even think it would form, then you thought it would only last for about 12-18 hours, and you said that it would be killed by the mountains, which didn't happen. And yesterday you were saying to expect shear in excess of 50kt, but now you are saying that the westerlies are below the storm. You were also wrong partially with Noel. I am not saying your not great, because you are. I am just saying that you put so much confidence in your forecasts, but they are not always right. Your amazing and a great forecaster who explains all of the facts, but you give little room for error.

I certainly don't buy the Canadian model every time it forecasts an upper low to develop into a TC (about 200 times a season). If this system had formed in the open Atlantic I have no doubt it would never have been named. It only got attention because of its potential to cause heavy rain across the DR. And, just because the NHC continues to carry it as a TS doesn't make it a TS. It wasn't so much the crossing of mountains that killed Olga, it was the increasing shear. Weak storms (and subtropical systems aren't impacted severely by passing over land). Don't know what you mean about "westerlies below the storm". Winds aloft are from the west to northwest and increasing. Winds in the lower to mid levels are from the east and east-southeast. Quite a bit of shear.

Give it up, Olga is history.