Tropical Depression 05F (95P)-models, images, discussion

[Chacor]

Doesn't look very organised. T1.5 from PHFO and PGTW.

WWPS21 NFFN 112300 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 11/2323 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000HPA] NEAR 15.5S 164.3W AT 112100UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOESVISHR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, QUIKSCAT
PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IN THE AREA IS AROUND
27-28C.
CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANISED AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THAT THE LLCC IS
EXPOSED AND MAJOR CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 05F LIES EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH. AN
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE NORTHERN FLANK AND AN INTENSE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
DIRECTS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ABOUT THE SOUTHERN FLANK. 05F
IS LOCATED UNDER A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIES BELOW A DIFLUENT REGION
AT 250HPA. UPPER FLOW [300HPA AND ABOVE] ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
DEPRESSION INDICATES WIND SHEAR OF GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS
[EC,GASP,UK,GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM, DEEPEN IT SLIGHTLY AND
MOVE IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[RL3AO]

Quikscat shows a pretty decent circulation with some 35-40 kt barbs.

[CrazyC83]

Low to moderate potential for a tropical cyclone...what is the next name on their list?

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98975

[HURAKAN]

what is the next name on their list?

Nice name for a cyclone: Elisa

[HURAKAN]

LOOP Center seems to be moving NORTH.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/0832 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000HPA] NEAR 15.7S 164.7W AT 121200UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, QUIKSCAT PASS
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IN THE AREA IS AROUND
27-28C.

CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANISED AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED AND MAJOR CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 05F
LIES EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A
VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTHERN FLANK AND AN
INTENSE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH DIRECTS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ABOUT THE SOUTHERN FLANK. 05F IS LOCATED UNDER
A MID LEVEL TROUGH, AND THE UPPER FLOW [300HPA AND ABOVE] ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE DEPRESSION INDICATES WIND SHEAR OF GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS
AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLIES, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. GLOBAL
MODELS [EC,GASP,UK,GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM, DEEPEN IT SLIGHTLY
AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[wyq614]

JTWC的西太平洋天气展望当中没有95P的影子。。。

I see nothing about 95P in the Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook of JTWC

[Squarethecircle]

JTWC的西太平洋天气展望当中没有95P的影子。。。

I see nothing about 95P in the Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook of JTWC

But you forget that the JTWC is hardly the only source of information on this subject, and that the storm is quite clearly there.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 84.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
121229Z QUICKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Chacor]

That's for 92B.

[CrazyC83]

That doesn't look like a tropical depression at all...

[wyq614]

JTWC说它挂了，CIMSS给它撤编了。斐济方面还给它维持25-35KT的强度。

JTWC says it has dissipated, CIMSS has it removed, but Fiji maintains its intensity of 25-35KT。