wxman57 wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:wxman, I don't mean to talk bad about you, but you have been wrong alot with this storm so far. At first, you didn't even think it would form, then you thought it would only last for about 12-18 hours, and you said that it would be killed by the mountains, which didn't happen. And yesterday you were saying to expect shear in excess of 50kt, but now you are saying that the westerlies are below the storm. You were also wrong partially with Noel. I am not saying your not great, because you are. I am just saying that you put so much confidence in your forecasts, but they are not always right. Your amazing and a great forecaster who explains all of the facts, but you give little room for error.
I certainly don't buy the Canadian model every time it forecasts an upper low to develop into a TC (about 200 times a season). If this system had formed in the open Atlantic I have no doubt it would never have been named. It only got attention because of its potential to cause heavy rain across the DR. And, just because the NHC continues to carry it as a TS doesn't make it a TS. It wasn't so much the crossing of mountains that killed Olga, it was the increasing shear. Weak storms (and subtropical systems aren't impacted severely by passing over land). Don't know what you mean about "westerlies below the storm". Winds aloft are from the west to northwest and increasing. Winds in the lower to mid levels are from the east and east-southeast. Quite a bit of shear.
Give it up, Olga is history.
I am not talking strictly about Olga. You generally give little room for error. The tropics change all of the time, and nothing is ever set in stone.
It's definitely not going out NOW.
