TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes Im forecast to get snow friday night and saturday morning with lows friday in the mid 30's and highs sat. in the mid 40's. Since this is still a few days away and was just recently added to the forecast, things could change between now and then...and I hope theyre being conservative because weve missed out here on the last 2 winter weather events and Im sick of looking just to our northwest and seeing that there is snow or freezing rain while we get nothing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone see the 18z GFS? It is wayyyyy out there (300+ hours), but it shows quite a winter storm arriving on Christmas day. In fact, it even brings the snow and sleet line all the way southward into parts of SE Texas (including the Houston area) by late Christmas day and the morning of the 26th. If something like this were to play out, I would definitely be quite happy! Unfortunately though, I do not have much trust in these long-range winter storms scenarios from the GFS. I have seen the GFS flip and flop way too many times beyond 168 hours out.

[Yankeegirl]

I want some snow....

[Diva]

Snow would be GREAT!...but I'll take cold temps if nothing else. I at least want it to FEEL like Christmas!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Anyone see the 18z GFS? It is wayyyyy out there (300+ hours), but it shows quite a winter storm arriving on Christmas day. In fact, it even brings the snow and sleet line all the way southward into parts of SE Texas (including the Houston area) by late Christmas day and the morning of the 26th. If something like this were to play out, I would definitely be quite happy! Unfortunately though, I do not have much trust in these long-range winter storms scenarios from the GFS. I have seen the GFS flip and flop way too many times beyond 168 hours out.

shades of '04 again, we shall see, maybe this time northern areas will get it, ya like we up here on the lake are going to get lake effect snow, hahahaha!

[vbhoutex]

It looks like it is going to be good deer hunting weather for me this weekend. Anyone here like venison?

*raises hand* Some backstrap please!

*vb joins the line* Any venison sausage available???

[vbhoutex]

Anyone see the 18z GFS? It is wayyyyy out there (300+ hours), but it shows quite a winter storm arriving on Christmas day. In fact, it even brings the snow and sleet line all the way southward into parts of SE Texas (including the Houston area) by late Christmas day and the morning of the 26th. If something like this were to play out, I would definitely be quite happy! Unfortunately though, I do not have much trust in these long-range winter storms scenarios from the GFS. I have seen the GFS flip and flop way too many times beyond 168 hours out.

Just looked!! We can dream!

[jasons2k]

It looks like it is going to be good deer hunting weather for me this weekend. Anyone here like venison?

*Jason joins line too* Venison sausage - yummy!!

[Brent]

Anyone see the 18z GFS? It is wayyyyy out there (300+ hours), but it shows quite a winter storm arriving on Christmas day. In fact, it even brings the snow and sleet line all the way southward into parts of SE Texas (including the Houston area) by late Christmas day and the morning of the 26th. If something like this were to play out, I would definitely be quite happy! Unfortunately though, I do not have much trust in these long-range winter storms scenarios from the GFS. I have seen the GFS flip and flop way too many times beyond 168 hours out.

!!!!!!

Sorry, had to laugh.

[Portastorm]

It looks like it is going to be good deer hunting weather for me this weekend. Anyone here like venison?

*Jason joins line too* Venison sausage - yummy!!

*Portastorm joins the line after Jason* -- backstrap, jerky, sausage, I'll take it!

[lrak]

I don't get the joke Brent. Sorry....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Anybody see the latest GFS for Christmas week ????

[jasons2k]

I was outside this morning when it came through at about 6:45. It went from muggy & still to a gust of fresh, coller air from the north. I'm still amazed when that happens.

---------------------------------------------

As of today, looks like we may dodge a freeze from this over the weekend (Houston Metro).

[Diva]

The only thing that's happened here is the fog lifted. We got nada...no rain, no wind, no cold.... Presently there are lots of big puffy white clouds in the sky and it's still relatively warm and humid.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the cool weather is here to stay! The NWS still seems a bit conservative with their forecast (especially this weekend..which they are forecasting much closer to the GFS MOS rather than the operational GFS). Still though, their forecast overall points to the general idea: Normal or below normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days. That is something we have not seen in quite some time.

BTW - - I still think we see a freeze out of this either Sunday morning and/or Monday morning, and the GFS agrees. The 12z run has IAH at 31F Sunday morning and near 32-33F Monday morning.

[southerngale]

Looks like the cool weather is here to stay! The NWS still seems a bit conservative with their forecast (especially this weekend..which they are forecasting much closer to the GFS MOS rather than the operational GFS). Still though, their forecast overall points to the general idea: Normal or below normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days. That is something we have not seen in quite some time.

BTW - - I still think we see a freeze out of this either Sunday morning and/or Monday morning, and the GFS agrees. The 12z run has IAH at 31F Sunday morning and near 32-33F Monday morning.

Here to stay? Here, where?
There?

It was 80° outside a little while ago. Who wants to play on the slip-n-slide with me?

[jinftl]

I guess it 'is here to stay' if you disregard the current actual weather.....the short-term forecast....and assume the model run (with a horrible track record in being right in terms of the actual temps/weather panning out) is correct enough to be able to move beyond it to later model runs.....

Looks like the cool weather is here to stay! The NWS still seems a bit conservative with their forecast (especially this weekend..which they are forecasting much closer to the GFS MOS rather than the operational GFS). Still though, their forecast overall points to the general idea: Normal or below normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days. That is something we have not seen in quite some time.

BTW - - I still think we see a freeze out of this either Sunday morning and/or Monday morning, and the GFS agrees. The 12z run has IAH at 31F Sunday morning and near 32-33F Monday morning.

Here to stay? Here, where?
There?

It was 80° outside a little while ago. Who wants to play on the slip-n-slide with me?

[Diva]

Who wants to play on the slip-n-slide with me?

ooo, ME! Can we make snowcones and play in the sprinkler too?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

yes! I'm in........hehehehe!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I guess it 'is here to stay' if you disregard the current actual weather.....the short-term forecast....and assume the model run (with a horrible track record in being right in terms of the actual temps/weather panning out) is correct enough to be able to move beyond it to later model runs.....

Looks like the cool weather is here to stay! The NWS still seems a bit conservative with their forecast (especially this weekend..which they are forecasting much closer to the GFS MOS rather than the operational GFS). Still though, their forecast overall points to the general idea: Normal or below normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days. That is something we have not seen in quite some time.

BTW - - I still think we see a freeze out of this either Sunday morning and/or Monday morning, and the GFS agrees. The 12z run has IAH at 31F Sunday morning and near 32-33F Monday morning.

Here to stay? Here, where?
There?

It was 80° outside a little while ago. Who wants to play on the slip-n-slide with me?

The current weather and the short term forecast?? It is currently 52F here right now and the low tonight will dip to 43F. That is pretty cold, IMO, so I do not quite understand the point you are trying to make? Also, as for your model comment, though the GFS track record may be bad in the long range, it is actually not that bad In the shorter (2-5 day) range. In fact, the GFS operational output tends to be better than the GFS MOS at this timeframe (based on what I have observed in the past), and I find it pretty trustworthy. Another key factor this time though is the fact that we have a good deal of snow and ice to our north. This snow/ice pack will help to greatly reduce any airmass modification this weekend, and thus we should be biased cooler rather than warmer. The MOS, which leans more toward climatology, probably is not picking up on this. All in all, it looks like the near or below normal weather is "here to stay" for at least the next 5+ days.