SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the ABC13 forecast this evening was certainly a cold one for this upcoming weekend in Houston. Tim Heller is calling for an afternoon temperature of 45F on Saturday, followed by a low of 30F Saturday night and then a low of 32F on Sunday night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS just updated the forecast tomorrow. It now looks like this...

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 53 by 10am. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

It seems that we will be reaching our high early, and then falling into the lower 50s by late morning and the afternoon. With the breeze and the showers, it will definitely be a chilly day out there!

[Yankeegirl]

Good! Maybe tomorrow I can go Christmas shopping! I havent gotten any of it done at all cause its just so warm out... it just doesnt feel right...

[Johnny]

With the last front, we got down to 28 degrees. I'm expecting something like this with this next front over the weekend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold front is just now moving through here. The temperature has fallen from 70F to 67F in just the last few minutes.

[Diva]

Hey southerngale...where's the cold air??? It's still balmy here...me no like.

[southerngale]

Hey southerngale...where's the cold air??? It's still balmy here...me no like.

It's cold here!

Just open your refrigerator and freezer and have a seat.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't worry. The cold air will be there soon enough...

[Diva]

It's cold here!

Just open your refrigerator and freezer and have a seat.

LOL...yep, got the AC set on 70....has been for the last week or so though.

I'm ready to burn some firewood this winter!

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's a chilly one out there this evening! As of 9:10pm, I am sitting in the upper 40s with a light north breeze (meaning wind chills in the lower 40s) and there is a misty rain falling. In fact, with some imagination, the mist *almost* resembles light, little snowflakes dancing in the lights. lol.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0z GFS continues to show the next strong front arriving Saturday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

One thing that definitely looks likely from this setup is WIND. The pressure gradient between the strong 1040mb+ high and the 1011mb low should be pretty tight across TX and I wouldn't doubt that we see some pretty gusty readings once the front passes on through. Another thing that should happen, and is still depicted in this run, is a temperature drop. By noon the 0z run has most of SE Texas into 40s and lower 50s and by 6pm we are falling into the 30s and 40s area-wide. Overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning, this run continues to then go on and show a widespread freeze across SE texas followed by a high struggling to reach 50F on Sunday afternoon.

[vbhoutex]

Noting that we are still 16 days out, the meteograms for Texas are looking interesting to say the least. They're showing the temps bottoming out on the 27th/28th with frozen precip in C and SE TX. Not gonna hold my breath waiting on it though because then I would

[Diva]

Well it's FINALLY here! Guess Santa brought this one because we had to be fast asleep for it to come through!

[hurrican19]

I see where Austin broke a record high on Sunday in the 80's, didn't get out of the 40's Monday, hit 81 again Tuesday, didn't get out of the 40's Wednesday and finally perfect in the 60's today.. now THAT's called a RollerCoaster ride.. Not to mention... They're showing a low of 27 Sunday Night in NW Austin.

[jasons2k]

Looking at today's models I'd hardly say there is a widespread freeze forecasted for SE Texas. Borderline at best. In fact, the NWS is calling for me to bottom-out at 33F in southern Montgomery County, which would put most of Houston Metro well above freezing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS calls for a low of 32F at IAH and the 12z GFS MOS calls for a low of 34F at IAH. That means I should probably hit the upper 20s to near 30F here and conroe should as well (I wouldn't even be surprised to see a 26F or 27F reading from them). It all really depends on the eventual cloud cover and winds though. If we end up with perfect conditions (which is possible), then this will be a widespread freeze, but if we only see borderline conditions then it will probably only amount to a repeat of our last freeze event where IAH remained just above the 32F mark and only outlying areas hit freezing.

Hopefully by Saturday afternoon we will have a good idea of what to expect.

[jasons2k]

Usually "perfect" radiational cooling in SE Texas calls for a dry frontal passage to begin with. With this being a very wet front in association with a coastal low, it will be hard for perfect radiational cooling to set-up. The ground moisture should help keep dewpoints from plunging too low this time around...but that depends on how fast we dry out. On the other hand, those NW winds could dry us out pretty fast. We shall see...

One thing is for sure, there is a lot that can change between now and then, and a subtle change in the high placement, winds, cloud cover, & dewpoints could make a big difference.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I love the extended GFS forecasts. They make me smile.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS shows a low of 33F at IAH on Sunday morning followed by a low of 31F on Monday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's looking more and more likely that Saturday night will stay a bit breezy. This may prevent a freeze at IAH (though they should still get into the low/mid 30s), but further north and west, places will still flirt with the 31-32 mark. Sunday night is looking like the best chance for a widespread freeze event now. With winds going calm and skies going clear, plus plenty of time to dry out, temperatures should fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s for many.

BTW - - The one downside to Saturday night is that if the winds do stay up a bit, then we will be looking at some pretty cold wind chills (into the 20s). That means a miserable Saturday evening and Sunday morning would be in store for those that want to be out and about.