OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Coredesat]

Sure seems like this dead storm has some avid posters. I guess to make sure everyone knows for sure that they are declaring it dead.
Do you mind if I still watch it for a while.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
shear is forecast to worsen, but IF it moves toward the GOH conditions aren't forecast to be that bad.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Shear is lighter in the Gulf of Honduras, but the dry area in the area would be a major prohibitive factor, and the strong low-level flow would quickly take it out of that area and into the Gulf of Mexico, where cold SSTs and very dry air (and increasing shear ahead of the approaching front) would finish it off.

[Coredesat]

Storm2k Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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-------------

Tropical Depression OLGA (17L)
TIME: 0000 UTC 13 December 2007
FCST: 05

PSTN: 18.8°N 77.2°W FAIR (2315Z GOES-10 IR2/IR4/BD-IR)
WIND: 350 kt
PRES: 1009 hPa
MOVE: WSW 15 kt
Dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water

Olga (17L) has lost most of its associated convection and has weakened to a tropical depression. A few weak and transient puffs of sheared convection have flared near the center, but most of the convection in the area is no longer associated with the system and is 5-6 degrees north and east of the center. Surface observations nearer to the center indicate only light winds, and the system is unclassifiable with the Dvorak technique; the intensity estimate of 30 kt may be too generous.

As stated previously, Olga is being steered by very strong low-level easterly flow under a strong ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States. This strong low-level flow combined with strong upper-level shear is producing an extremely unfavorable shear environment for the system. Dry air is also becoming entrained into the circulation, and as a result all I expect from here on out is rapid weakening and dissipation within 18-24 hours. The low-level flow should steer what's left of Olga west-northwestward toward the Gulf of Mexico, where the remnants should become absorbed into an approaching frontal system.

12HR FCST: 19.1°N 79.8°W
WIND/PRES: 20 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water

24HR FCST: 19.7°N 82.4°W
WIND/PRES: DISSIPATED
Dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water

Next update: 0600 UTC 13 December 2007
Next forecast: N/A

Weaver

No graphics are associated with this forecast. This is the last forecast on Olga. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

[Cyclone1]

Ahh, so close. If it had made it to tomorrow, I would have had a tropical cyclone for my birthday. Oh well.

[cpdaman]

yup everyone steps in every couple hours looks at the artist formerly known as olga, pokes it with a stick and says still dead


for those in florida who want rain ITS COMING

THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 4
DAYS IS FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS SEEING ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AREAS SEEING 4 INCHES...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AREAS SEEING 3 INCHES FOR REST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUT SOMEWHAT OF A DENT INTO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS.

[Blown Away]

Where is the 8pm advisory? Is Olga officially done?

[HURAKAN]

Where is the 8pm advisory? Is Olga officially done?

5 PM:

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

[cycloneye]

That will be the last advisory.No 00:00z Bams came out nor no dvorak numbers.

[tolakram]

If you look at the shortwave loop you can see when Olga died; it appears the circulation just fell apart. NE winds at 10kts reported from northern Jamaica.

[wxman57]

I just issued our final advisory. Doesn't matter what NHC says, Bones is making the call on this one:



And...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The 0Z models are out, perhaps they were late.

The unofficial ATCF data for 0Z:

18.9N 77.2W
25 knots
1008 mb
Tropical Depression

The depression may have moved a little further south drifting over Jamaica, so that might explain the winds that may seem as if the circulation entirely dissipated.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...OLGA DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW
SQUALLS...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES
...380 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...18.9 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT32 data were found.

489
WTNT22 KNHC 130231
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
0300 UTC THU DEC 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 77.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 77.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 80.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 77.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

463
WTNT42 KNHC 130233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3
DAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 77.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Coredesat]

It's finished, last advisory has been written.

[cycloneye]

ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON.

AVILA

As always Avila with his humor.

[CrazyC83]

And, hopefully, the 2007 season has ended...unless Olga regenerates or Pablo surprises us somewhere.

[CrazyC83]

And you know what that means Olga: Goodbye, and don't let the crash on you! See you in 2013 - if we get that far, and try to come IN season next time!

[HurricaneRobert]

Six more! We can do it I wanted to see Hurricane Van for once.

[Category 5]

The 2007 Hurricane Season is finally over. Well, assuming we don't get a surprise Pablo. Like 2003, an early start and a late finish.

R.I.P

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 9th-December 12th

"All or nothing"

[HURAKAN]

I don't like that turn at the end!!! It makes me worry!!!

[CrazyC83]

The 2007 Hurricane Season is finally over. Well, assuming we don't get a surprise Pablo. Like 2003, an early start and a late finish.

R.I.P

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 9th-December 12th

"All or nothing"

After seeing Zeta in 2005, we have to keep the door open at least a crack...it ain't over for real under the calendar turns...

[Frank2]

JB says, "Look out January!"

Kidding...