OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[oyster_reef]

looks like it's trying to fire back up a little. Still obviously has a circulation.

[tailgater]

Caymans a little gusty.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCB.html
Structure still not bad, but shear looks to be winning out.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/178.jpg

[Sanibel]

I don't know what people are talking about, this has an obvious circulation. It's just that the dry air has eaten it up leaving a ghost system spinning without convection. No rain for us in drysville.

If this happened in September...

[Evil Jeremy]

Here in Boca Raton, the rain is coming. You can feel it in the air.

[wyq614]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 DEC 2007 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 18:59:53 N Lon : 80:27:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.6 2.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +13.2C Cloud Region Temp : -0.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.59^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Evil Jeremy]

Is that recent? Is this qualified as an Invest?

[wyq614]

Is that recent? Is this qualified as an Invest?

就在两小时之前

Just two hours ago.

[wyq614]

这表明“奥尔加”重新加强了么？

Does it show that Olga has started to regenerate?

[Evil Jeremy]

You know, despite all of the shear that alot of people said would tear this apart, what is left of Olga is still well organized and is producing some high clouds in the NE quad.

[cpdaman]

water vapor shows moist air impacting SE florida and about to overspread area

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

PWAT value's (? moisture avialable / capacity in the air) is now up to 2 standard deviations higher than normal over the boca/miami area = RAIN and a lot of it over the next couple days

will the ghost of olga be part of any storm moving up the east coast in the weekend?

could she morph into a extra tropical low or nor'easter in the SE?

[tailgater]

Looks to me as if should have kept it's TD or SUB TD status a bit longer. Shear isn't as bad as thought to be, yet.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
If it contiues on present course, this Bouy should be interesting
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[gatorcane]

yes I agree it is still a depression....it is over extremely warm waters right now and looks like it is trying to regenerate..

Latest:

[RL3AO]

Complete 180 wind shift on Grand Cayman. It has gotten its west wind back.

[Evil Jeremy]

Before wxman squashes our hopes and dreams, If Olga continues to improve, it could regain its tropical status. it still has 30MPH winds with a 1008 MB pressure.

[wxman57]

There's no question Olga's remnant low has a circulation, as can be seen on the image below with the obs across the Grand Cayman Islands. But it lacks any significant convection. A few low-topped showers won't cut it for calling it a tropical depression. The NHC is looking for sustained deep convection over or very near the center. Based on that, it doesn't qualify. The west and northwest wind shear that caused its demise is still preventing that convection from building near the center.

But I do agree that the NHC is extremely inconsistent on what it calls a TD in recent years.

Here's the image. Max winds I've been able to find today would be 20 kts (23 mph).

And it's "quash", not "squash". I'm pulling for it to die because I'd have to work through my vacation this weekend.

[Evil Jeremy]

Models are still running, so I think this is still an Invest.

WHXX01 KWBC 131911

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1911 UTC THU DEC 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE OLGA (AL172007) 20071213 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071213 1800 071214 0600 071214 1800 071215 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 81.3W 19.7N 83.3W 19.9N 85.7W 20.8N 87.9W
BAMD 19.6N 81.3W 19.5N 82.1W 19.3N 83.3W 19.5N 84.6W
BAMM 19.6N 81.3W 19.7N 82.9W 19.8N 84.6W 20.4N 86.2W
LBAR 19.6N 81.3W 19.7N 82.9W 19.4N 84.5W 19.4N 86.6W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 31KTS 28KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071215 1800 071216 1800 071217 1800 071218 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 89.1W 26.0N 82.1W 27.4N 71.8W 29.8N 62.7W
BAMD 20.3N 85.7W 26.2N 76.9W 34.0N 56.9W 37.6N 37.2W
BAMM 21.7N 87.1W 27.1N 79.6W 35.1N 60.4W 45.0N 41.1W
LBAR 19.5N 88.1W 21.3N 87.7W 23.3N 84.7W 27.2N 80.2W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Evil Jeremy]

Models are up and running. Latest BAM models initialized it with 30kt winds.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_17.gif

[wxman57]

I'll tell you what I'll do, Jeremy. I'll give you a little Christmas hope. There are two reasons that Olga could regenerate tomorrow.

1. A ridge to the southwest of Olga that's helped to produce the NW wind shear will be moving over the NW Caribbean tomorrow, resulting in decreasing wind shear. Question is - can Olga still generate enough convergence to get convection building over the center? I wouldn't rule it out completely. Low-mid level steering currents may begin taking Olga's remnant circulation to the WSW tonight and Friday, generally toward the southern to central Yucatan.

2. I'm on vacation tomorrow (probably the bigger of the two reasons). Every time I plan a vacation day when there's a disturbance in the tropics - it develops.

There you go! Merry Christmas!

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, i'm Jewish, but yay! Hope!

On another note, the NHC never removed the forecast points from their floater, so you can compare where Olga is now to where it was expected to be last night. Much more north than expected.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you for that hope Wxman!!! It would be SO AWESOME to see it
get to a tropical storm of 40 or 45 mph and hit where wilma hit that
would so rock I would get big winds on the NW side due to baroclinic interaction.

Also I hope the squall line coming in with the front produces tropical storm force
wind gusts and heavy rain to make it "feel" like a good ol' minimal tropical storm.