OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[tolakram]

I know shear is hard to predict but in my opinion Olga might have between 15 and 20 minutes of low shear before the next batch moves in.

[Evil Jeremy]

If Olga can maintain its current organization for another 24 hours, there is no doubt that advisories could start being issued again.

[Evil Jeremy]

according to NRL, Olga's pressure is down to 1006MB

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wxman is there any way the low pressure with olga's remains could combine with the
frontal low over the southeast and baroclinically bomb out into an intense low
off the SE coast or in the SE moving up the east coast?
That would so freakin rock there would be so much wind and a nice
squall line and it would feel like a full blown tropical
storm!!!!

All this wish-casting must sound very entertaining to the
pro mets LOL

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 3 hr and 6hr movement toward 281 degrees at 10 kts, by the way. Low-level wind flow may start to turn it west to west-southwest tonight. Still a slim chance of redevelopment. I don't like to see any LLC out there anywhere near a scheduled vacation day.

[Frank2]

It appears the low swirl is currently in a small area that's more favorable for development (perhaps the COL mentioned yesterday) - perhaps wxman or one of the other meteorologists here can confirm this...

[gatorcane]

Well the models show a "Wilma-like" track but of course this would only pass South Florida as a min. tropical storm at the most.....

comon Olga...defy the odds!!! (no offense Wxman -- that sucks something always develops when you plan a vacation --even in the winter!!!)

Looks alot more than a remnant low to me:

[RL3AO]

starting to look a little more subtropical to me.

[gatorcane]

starting to look a little more subtropical to me.

is it possible that the collison of the cold front approaching from the NW and Olga's remnants may cause a severe weather outbreak across Florida and the EC?

[gatorcane]

I think Olga's main problem will be how to mix out the dry air with some moisture at the low levels...:

[Evil Jeremy]

Olga has not had a problem with the dry air yet, and I doubt that it will begin to affect Olga now.

[gatorcane]

any buoy observations from the Western Caribbean around Olga?

It would be interesting to see any wind increases or pressure drops

Also it looks like it has resumed a W movement after moving WNW much of the day....

[gatorcane]

so I think the remnants are definitely organizing. Just today alone you can see how much the cloud cover has increased with showers and embedded thunderstorms and they are spiraling into Olga.

I'm going out on a limb and I think we have substropical storm Olga reforming again....and I really think Florida may see a good dose of rain between Olga and the cold front....

[AnnularCane]

2. I'm on vacation tomorrow (probably the bigger of the two reasons). Every time I plan a vacation day when there's a disturbance in the tropics - it develops.

You just need to try and confine your vacations to the off-season...oops.

[tolakram]

so I think the remnants are definitely organizing. Just today alone you can see how much the cloud cover has increased with showers and embedded thunderstorms and they are spiraling into Olga.

I'm going out on a limb and I think we have substropical storm Olga reforming again....and I really think Florida may see a good dose of rain between Olga and the cold front....

I was going to post something similar, though I couldn't identify a sub-tropical storm if I wanted too. Looking at the sat pics and the water vapor loop you can clearly see moisture is on the increase. I think the only question at this point is shear.

[Coredesat]

Olga has not had a problem with the dry air yet, and I doubt that it will begin to affect Olga now.

Yes it has - the dry air coupled with the shear has kept Olga from developing convection close to the center. Your -removed- is really starting to get on my (and others') nerves.

At any rate, ex-Olga still has little convection associated with it. IR4 only measures cloud top temperatures; blue isn't deep convection. The coldest cloud tops associated with ex-Olga are just barely under -30C.



As for dry air, I'd say it's having plenty of problems with the dry air:



It's still a remnant low. Its center is indiscernible in vapor imagery. Give it up, Jeremy!

[MGC]

Until more convection fires near the center this will remain a remnant low. There is still a chance at regeneration though.....MGC

[brunota2003]

Here are some close up images of Ex-Olga:

Visible:



Infrared:



Water Vapor:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... fwaJSa.jpg

[dtrain44]

There's just not really any convection. I don't think anyone disagrees that there's a circulation here, but I certainly can't see the convection necessary for this to be a TC or even a STC. Maybe later, but most likely never I'm afraid. Still an interesting watch by December standards.....

[tolakram]

How about everyone discuss observations but STOP personal attacks?

Ok, my latest observations compared to last night.




1. Low level moisture / convection has been steadily on the increase. Last night there was isolated convection but it was immediately destroyed by the shear and the majority of the circulation was convection free.

2. Convection that's been firing has slowly been gaining and doesn't look to be as sheared as last night. Look at all the bright white beginning to show in the AVN pic. That's different from last night.