Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain. Patchy fog before midnight. Low around 54. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Also, they have lows of 30° and 28° predicted for Saturday night and Sunday night.
Saturday: Periods of rain and thunderstorms before noon, then a slight chance of rain. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain. High near 67. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-142200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
420 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...
A LEE SIDE CYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
EVOLVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY ON
SATURDAY EVENING.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON TARGET THIS MORNING.
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS/REPORTS OF AROUND 1SM WERE NOTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.
A WARM SECTOR WEDGE WILL SET-UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE ONSET OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVE
WEATHER...NAMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXITING CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL COMPUTES RATHER STRONG COMBINED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...THE RESULT OF THE PHASING-
IN OF FRONTAL LIFT WITH THE QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAK SOUTHWESTERLIES.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE INCLINED LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH
WILL ORIENT ITSELF IN A FRONT-WISE DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF CAPE (IE GRAVITATIONAL
INSTABILITY). HOWEVER SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (IE PARCELS UNSTABLE
TO A SLANTWISE DISPLACEMENT) IS PLENTIFUL...THE GFS DEPICTS NEGATIVE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY EXTENDING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
AT PRESENT...BELIEVE THAT INSTABILITY IN ANY FORM WILL ORGANIZE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ON THROUGH ON SATURDAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. A GALE WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED SATURDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
Sometimes, these forecasts don't pan out as expected. And then there are times when it's worse than expected. It's always interesting to see how each event turns out.
