OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Coredesat]

Not sure how Olga's clouds can reach you, given that the elongated remnant circulation is just about to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula south of Cancun. The outflow isn't that great.

Those clouds you're seeing are due to an old frontal trough to the east.

[boca]

Finally some beneficial rain over Lake O. Everyone have a good and safe holiday.I'll see some of you on the winter board.

[ronjon]

The LLC is still rather vigorous and now moving more NW. Overall convection has increased slightly tonight. I noticed the buoy at 20N-85W is reporting winds gusting out of the south at 35 mph. It will be interesting if the LLC remains intact as it moves N and then NE ahead of the approaching cold front on Sat night. Could play a factor in increasing low level speed convergence for possible severe weather over the FL peninsula Sat night/Sunday morning.

[HURAKAN]

Olga bears down Cancun.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ex-Olga still looks very impressive considering it is mid December and the circulation is now near Cancun: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

One thing is for sure though: Thank god we didn't see a storm take a similar track to this one during peak season! It would have been a GOM target for sure and would have had much more favorable conditions to work with.

[feederband]

Olga bears down Cancun.

I bet this is on they dont mind getting...

[MiamiensisWx]

Ex-Olga still looks very impressive considering it is mid December and the circulation is now near Cancun: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

One thing is for sure though: Thank god we didn't see a storm take a similar track to this one during peak season! It would have been a GOM target for sure and would have had much more favorable conditions to work with.

There was one storm. You forgot Humberto's rapid, unprecedented pre-shore intensification from a low to a high-end Category 1 hurricane. It struck Texas during night, too. Additionally, Lorenzo was a similar Mexican counterpart. Humberto has been underemphasized on these boards. Additionally, it is surprising that Lorenzo has been rarely mentioned, especially when you consider numerous people who say it is important to focus on impacts in other countries.

You rarely see pre-shore intensification to a major hurricane, but it does take place (i.e. 1935).

"Near shore" implies a position within ~100 miles of any land mass.

[RL3AO]

One thing is for sure though: Thank god we didn't see a storm take a similar track to this one during peak season! It would have been a GOM target for sure and would have had much more favorable conditions to work with.

That statement is flawed. Because if this storm took a Wilma like track, then Dean and Felix would have too. If this was peak season, it would of most likely hit Central America...again.

[MiamiensisWx]

That statement is flawed. Because if this storm took a Wilma like track, then Dean and Felix would have too. If this was peak season, it would of most likely hit Central America...again.

Actually, I think your statement is incorrect. It all depends on the synoptic setup. First, you must consider the situation (i.e. whether a TC is well developed). Well developed, deep tropical cyclones are steered by the upper levels (usually <500 mb). If Dean and Felix were weaker systems, they would have been steered by the low-level (850 mb) flow, even if the 500 mb ridging was weaker and supported a northward turn. Additionally, weak sfc fronts, upper lows, tropical upper tropospheric troughs, and continental shortwaves regularly alter the pattern. It depends on timing. For example, Charley was a well developed TC when it passed Jamaica, thus it was affected by the UL pattern (<500 mb). An UL trough (s/w) was moving over FL, thus weakening the UL ridge and allowing Charley's northward turn across Cuba.

I think it is dangerous (from a citizen and meteorological standpoint) to assume that things would trend in a particular direction (i.e. repeat in summer) because of the outcome via one pattern during a few days in a single year (in a single occurrence). If Felix and Dean arrived a few days earlier or later than anticipated, the outcome could have been much different. Heck, it could have been much different if the UL pattern was different at the time.

Every situation is different, regardless of the time during a year.

Edit: Surely Mike Watkins would concur with this post.

[Coredesat]

There is convection beginning to return with Olga, but it's too little too late, the circulation is very elongated at this point and is very likely dissipating.

[Category 5]

This thing is likely done, but I'm not going to officially declare it dead until I get an answer from Chacor's magic 8ball.

[JonathanBelles]

This thing is likely done, but I'm not going to officially declare it dead until I get an answer from Coredesat's magic 8ball.

ROFL!!!

[Sanibel]

Excellent circulation and form still considering we are talking about a December system. About to take predicted N turn. Convection tag tells you it still has a spot of strength.

Dumping rain today right in the dry spot of Florida. We only got a few showers here. Almost nothing. Should see some significant rain Sunday from front.

Let's see if Old Olga can turn back into her moisture and generate some rain.

[Coredesat]

Excellent circulation and form still considering we are talking about a December system. About to take predicted N turn. Convection tag tells you it still has a spot of strength.

Dumping rain today right in the dry spot of Florida. We only got a few showers here. Almost nothing. Should see some significant rain Sunday from front.

Let's see if Old Olga can turn back into her moisture and generate some rain.

It doesn't have an excellent circulation, it's sharply elongated northwest to southeast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Excellent circulation and form still considering we are talking about a December system. About to take predicted N turn. Convection tag tells you it still has a spot of strength.

Dumping rain today right in the dry spot of Florida. We only got a few showers here. Almost nothing. Should see some significant rain Sunday from front.

Let's see if Old Olga can turn back into her moisture and generate some rain.

It doesn't have an excellent circulation, it's sharply elongated northwest to southeast.

The low level cloud circulation isn't that badly elongated. Not quite enough to qualify as a TC, but it looks better than the average remnant low like the ones you'd see in the East Pac.

[cpdaman]

was looking at the bouy it passed over earlier today 29.71 and sustained winds in the low 30's better than i thought

temps are 81-82 under it now and 79-80 up to the keys

i had this vision it caught the jet stream heading N then NE and the relative shear died down and this thing came back from the dead. I can imagine WXMAN getting the call saturday morning and him thinking it is some sort of nightmare lol

but in all seriousness there is still something with this thing based on bouy obs from earlier this afternoon , morning will tell but it may at least have some influence on the NOr'easter

where is this moisture , remnants progged to go BTANGY you are the only one up

[djones65]

I am surprised at how Olga's circulation has remained as well organized as it has, and despite the incredibly dry atmosphere it has squeezed out a few clusters of convection during the past 36 hours or so. I see that Cancun's pressure fell to 1004 mb at 0700 UTC and I believe the strongest winds were easterly at 15 to 20 knots. These winds are now southerly as Olga is moving northwest to Cancun's west. It would be interesting to see on Saturday if more convection can form as it accelerates north and northeastward.

Here is a quote from the "Marine Weather Discussion" at NHC's Forecasts and Analysis page from 0500 UTC Saturday December 15:

GULF OF MEXICO...
REMNANT LOW OF OLGA APPEARS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN METSAT DATA
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAX WINDS 30 KT...OR POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THE LOW WILL CLIP THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NEAR COZUMEL...LATER THIS
MORNING THEN CURVE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND
18Z.

Interesting that even some forecasters at Miami WSO suggest that Olga could have been producing tropical storm force winds. Also, I have seen at least three ship reports between 2100 UTC and 0700 UTC of tropical storm force winds. The most recent was at 0700 UTC just north of Yucatan with 35kt winds along with 9 foot seas. The other two reports were 42 knots and 49 knots with the latter appearing to be too high considering the sea height was 4 feet. The forecaster authoring the Marine weather discussion was named Mundell. The above clip was from the Marine Weather Discussion NOT the Tropical Weather Discussion.

[Coredesat]

Well, the convection that's there is extremely weak (the low is taking advantage of lower shear); 42056 is just south of the one convective burst associated with ex-Olga, and it's reporting winds of 13 kt from the WSW. It did report 25 kt winds earlier (27.2 kt at 21Z) - all winds from the ENE - and a pressure of 1006 hPa. However, without more convection, this is still a remnant low.

Remnant lows can produce TS force winds if there is a sufficient pressure gradient (which there is, with the strong surface ridge to the NE). However, they are still not tropical cyclones if they don't have substantial, persistent convection near the center. That one burst is not nearly enough, especially when the rest of the circulation is totally choked by dry air (virtually all of the moisture once associated with ex-Olga has either dried up or been drawn away by the previous front).



The tail end of the next front is about to enter the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not expecting ex-Olga to get there; upper-level shear over the Gulf of Mexico is 50-70 kt and increasing, with 35-45 kt extending to the mid-levels. There is no way the low will survive that.

[HURAKAN]

Nice in the visible, dead in the IR.

[HURAKAN]

Moving north.