How bout a NOR'easter thread

[cpdaman]

anyone following winter weather knows we got a big one coming up this weekend

and since i don't see a specific thread describing a discussion for this thing i thought i might get one started

looking at runs of the GFS today the solutions have become a bit more consistent with the parent low making it up to about pittsburgh and then transferring energy to the "coastal low" near delmarva, the original low appears to track ENE from pitt to about NYC then providence and then near boston (perhaps a bit north) and then just south of portland , ME.

The NAM however offers a much different solution w/ a system tracking thru E Ohio and the secondary low weaker and coming up the hudson valley.

either way it will be a Wild ride and there is still much uncertainty in the track.

also just to note currently there is a sharp temperature contrast from N. newengland upper single digits to lower teens, and then SNE where temps are upper 20's to low 30's due to an arctic front sinking south.

i should also note the last few runs of GFS seem to show more of an initial dump of snow from the hartford to worcester -mass pike area and then perhaps getting dry slotted during the height. we shall se

[cpdaman]

here are some predictions based on the OZ GFS also noting the NAM is behaving badly and may have a better handle on this at least as far as initialization

INDY 10-15 inches
Chicago 6-12
Cleveland 8-14
Buffalo 15-25
Burlington 15-25
Albany 6-10 some sleet
State college 3-6 sleet and freez rain mixed in
Scranton 2-4 lots of mixing
Hartford 3-5
Worcester 6-12
Boston 3-6 (mostly on front end)
Providence 2-4 (ditto boston) then to mix and rain
Concord 5-10
Portland 4-8 (tuff call)
NYC 2-4 (front end)

these are final updates for midwest (since snow will be breaking out soon) but will have final NE totals by NOON. cheers

[lrak]

will x Olga effect the NE, or help a Nor'easter get together with this big cold front that just blew through CC TX?

What does front end mean?

[cpdaman]

front end= beginning of the system as a tongue of moisture shoots out in front of the low in a type of overrunning situation where it should be all snow and possibly heavy at times.

this mornings 06 gfs shows consistency w/ last few model runs and takes a low from clevelend to just N. of pittsburgh, to SW of scranton, to worcester to portland area.

this may bring more mid level warming into areas like cleveland and perhaps even buffalo changing things over to sleet and freezing rain there , while burlington and caribou, me would probably stilll stay all snow.

initial band of snow may be set up further north a la albany, worcester concord portland while skirting hartford to prov to taunt /boston will watch this set up. all these areas will go to sleet , freezing rain w/ rain for the prov /taunt/ boston very likely as well as a dry slot.

snow totals may be lowered based on any upcoming model confirmations in the next couple hours

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

olga meet winter storm

this may throw those in GA/NC a "bone" and this may get thrown into N. newengland as powder

this thing is possibly getting too complicated for me to accurately predict squat , with that said and at looking at the 12Z models i will say someone may get over 2 feet of snow

also possibly overrunning snow further south and west to start in Areas of maryland/penn/even nj also back side snow could get heavy in mountains of nc and va

very intrested to see how much moisture and low pressure shapes up tontite when olga brings her moisture

[JBG]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

olga meet winter storm

this may throw those in GA/NC a "bone" and this may get thrown into N. newengland as powder

Is Olga the reason that the air aloft is so warm in Northeast?

[Stephanie]

All rain here. It's currently 43 degrees out, though it feels warmer, probably due to the humidity.

The winds haven't been as bad as I thought they were going to be here.

[Stephanie]

Okay, so the wind has picked up just a tad...

[cpdaman]

http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webca ... Sports.htm

looks like they got a bit of snow near the mountains of western N. carolina

grandparents in wakefield, MA (just N of boston) got about 9 inches in maybe 7 hours



current temp in boca raton, fl 56.5 degrees and breezy ...............finally