Tropical Storm Risk first 2008 forecast=15/8/4

[cycloneye]

It passed undetected by all of us (Including Me) since December 10th until now.But anyway,here is their first 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook.They are forecasting 15/8/4 in this first 2008 forecast.I regard Tropical Storm Risk as a good group in the U.K. that always haved done good forecasts in the past years.But as the others like Colorado State University team and NOAA,they did not did so good in 2006-2007.They have there a section about that.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

[hurricanetrack]

Good catch Luis. This seems reasonable right now considering the strength of the La Nina currently in place. Also, the SSTs in the Atlantic are running well above normal in a lot of places- if this holds, their forecast might be on the money. We have many months to see how these parameters evolve but as of now, it is tough to argue against this with any real evidence.

[OuterBanker]

Isn't this higher than 07 forcast for TSR? When most thought that they were too low last year it seems that they were closer. They were also closer on damage potential were they not?. But who knows, maybe we will breeze by in 08 too. 00, 01, and 02 wern't bad. Then we had three bad years in 03, 04 and 05. Maybe we are going to have one more good year. Of course I hope it doesn't go back to the bad cycle in 09

[Coredesat]

Isn't this higher than 07 forcast for TSR? When most thought that they were too low last year it seems that they were closer. They were also closer on damage potential were they not?. But who knows, maybe we will breeze by in 08 too. 00, 01, and 02 wern't bad. Then we had three bad years in 03, 04 and 05. Maybe we are going to have one more good year. Of course I hope it doesn't go back to the bad cycle in 09

It's actually one tropical storm lower than their December 06 forecast for 2007.