WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 82.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 82.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.7S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A
181623Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S, IS NO LONGER INFLUENCING THE TRACK OR
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AS EVIDENCED
IN A 181955Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-
WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
