SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

6pm area temperatures...

IAH - 43F
Hooks - 42F
Conroe - 39F
College Station - 45F
Hobby - 48F
Brenham - 45F
Sugar Land - 45F
Huntsville - 43F

[Extremeweatherguy]

7pm area temperatures...

IAH - 41F
Hooks - 38F
Conroe - 35F
College Station - 44F
Hobby - 44F
Brenham - 39F
Sugar Land - 40F
Huntsville - 45F

My thermometer - 37.0F

[Extremeweatherguy]

8pm area temperatures...

IAH - 39F
Hooks - 36F
Conroe - 33F
College Station - 39F
Hobby - 43F
Brenham - 39F
Sugar Land - 41F
Huntsville - 38F

My thermometer - 34.9F

[Extremeweatherguy]

9pm area temperatures...

IAH - 39F
Hooks - 34F
Conroe - [color=blue]31F[/blue]
College Station - 40F
Hobby - 43F
Brenham - 37F
Sugar Land - 40F
Huntsville - 36F

My thermometer - 33.4F

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm area temperatures...

IAH - 37F
Hooks - 34F
Conroe - 29F
College Station - 36F
Hobby - 41F
Brenham - 34F
Sugar Land - 35F
Huntsville - 33F

My thermometer - Hovering between 32.0F and 32.5F

[Yankeegirl]

I am at 36.5 here... Still cold... and just got back from Target!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not quite as cold this morning as I expected, but I have still reached 29.8F on my thermometer and there is lots of frost.

As for some REAL cold weather, the NWS seems to think that is may just be a little over a week away...

MODELS
HAVE BEGUN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS POTENTIALLY BEARS WATCH!

[jasons2k]

Had a good rain this morning with rumbles of thunder. This line is really cranking-up as it pushes east. There is a small tongue of higher dewpoints just ahead of the front, may be some severe weather this afternoon in parts of Louisiana.

[Yankeegirl]

I have to say, looks like they have backed off the really cold weather for new years day. Oh well...it would have been nice!

[JonathanBelles]

2114 10 SW HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2948 9082 5 HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LIX)
2114 5 S HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2951 9071 5 FIXED STRUCTURE HOMES AND 2 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED. 2 HOMES MODERATELY DAMAGED...REST MINOR...MAINLY ROOF DAMAGE. 1 SHED DESTROYED. TORNADO WENT ACROSS MARK AND MELVIN (LIX)

On the news they said this tornado was confirmed, not sure what rating.

[southerngale]

I had fallen asleep in the living room. The storms woke me up, then the weather alert woke me up after I fell back asleep. Pretty strong thunderstorms here, but nothing severe where I am.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC245-281045-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0137.071228T1010Z-071228T1045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
410 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...

* UNTIL 445 AM CST

* AT 402 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMSHIRE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HAMSHIRE BY 415 AM CST...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEDERLAND BY 440 AM CST...

LAT...LON 3010 9413 2994 9397 2969 9437 2971 9439
2991 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 230DEG 40KT 2981 9436

$$

JS

[southerngale]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC245-361-281145-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0138.071228T1041Z-071228T1145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...
NEDERLAND...GROVES...CENTRAL GARDENS...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORANGE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 433 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEDERLAND...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
HAMSHIRE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF
A PREVIOUS WARNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PORT NECHES...NEDERLAND...GROVES AND CENTRAL GARDENS BY 455 AM
CST...
BRIDGE CITY BY 505 AM CST...
ORANGE BY 515 AM CST...

LAT...LON 3022 9380 3011 9374 2999 9380 2974 9411
2988 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 230DEG 37KT 2987 9409

$$

JS

[Yankeegirl]

We didnt get any storms here this morning..Go Figure! It did rain though....

[Garnetcat5]

Help, will there be fog on New year's day in Ft.Bend . It was so bad this morning...I can't go play tonight if the fog is bad in the morning cuz my dad can't see to drive her...anyone know..thanks

[Extremeweatherguy]

Help, will there be fog on New year's day in Ft.Bend . It was so bad this morning...I can't go play tonight if the fog is bad in the morning cuz my dad can't see to drive her...anyone know..thanks

There shouldn't be. A front will be moving through this evening and as winds shift around to the NW and the air dries out, it should destroy the chances of fog development.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Large arctic dome starting to move eastward with damaging citrus freeze expected tonight across much of central FL. Very cold start to the day even with winds staying up slightly and thick cirrus overspreading the region around 300am. Several sites still are below freezing even at 900am this morning making the overnight freeze duration about 8-10 hours for most locations. See below for lows this morning. Additionally near record surface pressures were recorded yesterday over N TX as large arctic high crested over the region. Maximum pressure of 31.03” was recorded at McKinney , TX which fell just short of the record of 31.06” in the severe arctic outbreak of Dec 24, 1983.

With the cold start and thick cirrus spilling into the region warming today will be stunted even as winds come back around to the E and SE on the backside of the arctic high. It will take some time to modify this bone dry air mass with dewpoints still in the teen’s and 20’s. Front has penetrated deep into the Caribbean Sea and the next 36-48 hours of return SE flow will just recircuate dry polar air from the SE US. Expect to see 60 degree dewpoints finally arrive into TX by early Sunday as southerly flow finally re-moistens the Gulf. Dewpoints should start to creep about nearshore water temps. by early Monday leading to the threat of sea fog.

Next storm system plowing toward the US W coast (they will be measuring the snow in feet in N CA through this weekend) will eject into the plains early next week. Lee Rockies cyclone will develop and head for the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through the region around Tuesday or Wednesday. Still some timing differences in the models with the progressive GFS yesterday now flipping to a more slower and stronger storm and the ECMWF which was slower yesterday now moving the storm through faster. Not sure which one has the right idea since none of the models aimed at any kind of consensus in the last runs and did 180 degree turns. May be they will flip around again on the 12Z runs this morning..at least they will be trending back toward something similar within their own runs while varying widely with each other. Hence with the guidance in its usual poor agreement at the extended ranges…will just maintain a warm forecast with increasing chances of showers Sun-Wed until it becomes clear when the trough/front will move through. I am actually trending toward the slower solution of the GFS at this time or the ECMWF from yesterday since such systems tend to be slower out of the SW US.

Far long range:

GFS and a few of its ensemble members (P7 and P9 along with control 1) have been indicating for several runs now the potential for another good cold air outbreak around the 11-13 of Jan. The majority of the ensembles keep a progressive deep trough moving the cold down and through the area like with the current cold spell…however a few of the members are showing a pattern more favorable of extended cold with hints of McFarland Pattern high latitude omega blocking with a highly amplified E Pacific ridge and zonal 500mb trough axis from Hudson Bay to the SW US. GFS is also showing some moisture around with the cold air mass and dumps a good bit of winter precip. across the state toward the weekend of the 12th. We shall see what transpires in both the mystical model world and in actuality.

Lows this morning:

IAH: 27
Tomball: 26
Pearland: 30
Sugar Land: 27
Huntsville: 23
Palacios: 26
College Station: 29
Conroe: 23
Victoria: 26
Angleton: 25
Bay City: 28
Brenham: 26
Wharton: 26
Hobby: 32
Galveston: 38
Austin: 19
San Marcos: 25
Rockport: 35
Port Lavaca: 29
Lufkin: 23
Longview: 19
Waco: 24

Deep S TX

Falfurrias: 27
Hebbronville: 28
Rio Grande City: 30

[jasons2k]

My high today was 80F!!



Now THIS is my kind of weather!! This sure as heck beats the dreary cold of a few days ago. Nothing beats putting on the shorts and getting some yardwork and pool cleaning done in January!! Makes me glad to live in Houston, Texas.

Bring on Spring!

[southerngale]

lol Jason... when I was so cold the other day, I was ready for spring. Today, when I started sweating (in January!), I decided that I was ready for the cold to return.
And my high was only 75° - 5° cooler than yours. The A/C is going strong. Crazy weather!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tricky forecast for late this weekend/early next week. The GFS MOS is calling for middle 50s for highs, but the Houston NWS is much warmer and is calling for lower 60s. The local news stations are calling for middle 50s (following the MOS) and surrouding NWS offices, including Austin and Dallas, are only projecting highs near 50F for Sunday and Monday. This will definitely be something to watch. Nothing too extreme is likely out of this (since there will be no tap into the arctic or polar air), however I certainly wouldn't rule out a few chilly high temperatures to start next week (depending on cloud cover and other variables). No matter what though, regardless of whether our highs are 48F or 61F, it definitely looks like our current 70s will be gone in less than a week and January in some shape or form (either normal or below normal temperatures) will be making a return.

[jinftl]

at this rate...by the time we see normal temps it will be Spring!!!