TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Yankeegirl]

Its dropping rather quickly... Its 41 now...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am down to ~35F right now and already have frost crystals forming. This is definitely going to be a very chilly night!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2007

.UPDATE...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH. SFC RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH CALM WINDS ALMOST EVERYWHERE. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF SE TX AND WILL DROP MIN TEMPS
FOR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. MID 20S OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. FREEZING TEMPS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND INLAND AREAS OF
COASTAL COUNTIES. OTHRWISE...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
A MORE AND MORE DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.

[Portastorm]

Well folks, the NWSFOs in Texas are a bit excited about a major Arctic "intrusion" next week with the possibility of frozen precip. Here are some snippets from this morning's forecast discussions:

Austin/San Antonio
------------------
IT MUST BE NOTED THAT JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD (LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT - NEW YEAR`S EVE), A STRONG COLD FRONT OF AN ARCTIC NATURE IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN JUST AFTER THE NEW YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Fort Worth
----------
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS NEXT MONDAY...WITH GFS HINTING AT A WINTRY TREAT FOR BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR.

Midland/Odessa
---------------
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN HAS AFFORDED ME THE CHANCE TO LOOK BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE 8-10 DAY PERIOD WHICH COULD BE INTERESTING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND BRINGING A COLD AIR MASS DIVING SOUTH INTO TEXAS AROUND NEW YEARS. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP BUT WE HAVE A LONG TIME TO GET IT FIGURED OUT.

Houston/Galveston
------------------
MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF. WE WILL SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS POTENTIALLY BEARS WATCH!

[jasons2k]

Looks like the clouds and slightly modified airmass helped keep us a little warmer overnight. When I went to bed it was 34F outside....but overnight I had a low of 33F with most stations within a few miles ranging from 31-32.5F for lows.

Portastorm: thanks for the compilation. Something to watch for sure.

[double D]

The GFS has been pretty consistent on this change as well. It will be fun to see how this evolves over the next few days, hopefully the cold trend continues.

I'm surprised EWG didn't post about this yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS has been pretty consistent on this change as well. It will be fun to see how this evolves over the next few days, hopefully the cold trend continues.

I'm surprised EWG didn't post about this yet.

lol. I actually have posted a little about it over in the "snow in the deep south next week?" thread. It will definitely be interesting to watch, that's for sure. If the models look the same a few days from now, then this might become something we seriously need to consider as a real possibility. Even if we do not see snow or ice, it looks very possible that we could see a hard freeze or two from a setup like this.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm,

Did one of the old timers come out of retirement at NWS Brownsville??

"WITH RATHER BENIGN WX FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
YEAR...THINGS ARE BREWING AT THE POLES. LATEST LONG RANGE MDLS ARE
BRINGING A 1060MB HIGH ARCTIC AMS TO THE CO BY 6 AM JANUARY 1ST,
2008. THIS BULK OF VERY FRIGID AIR IS SCHEDULED FOR ENTRY THE
AFTERNOON OF JANUARY 1ST WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
OVER LAND AND 40 TO 45 KTS OVER OUR MARINE AREAS. GFS PROGS
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AT 530 TO 535 DAM BY 6 AM WED IN A NW
FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. AN AIRMASS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL NEED CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF OUR NEW YEARS...AND THE NWS IN
BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FRIGID AMS AND IT`S
POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON THE RGV."

Haven't seen something like this from that office in a long while.

[jasons2k]

*gulp*

Well, at least I'm off work 'till the 2nd so I can prepare if needed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Allow me to wishcast.... Oh Please, Oh Please, Oh Please!! ....




New 0Z Euro has a 1040 mb high building into Texas with SW flow aloft. Sometimes good for an ice storm

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS continues to show an arctic outbreak right around New years...

Surface temperature/wind:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

850mb temperatures:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

Thicknesses:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

Impressive!

[Portastorm]

Thanks for posting EWG ... with 3 consecutive runs from the GFS and concurrence from the European, I think we need to start paying attention to this.

[cheezyWXguy]

NOOOOO!!!! Im gonna be gone during new years and the one chance I get at a snowstorm will be while im gone : (

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just e-mailed JB, to get his take on this.



People like to denigrate the B-man, but best I can tell, he was first on Erin, Humberto and Olga, and, since he spent time in CLL as a child he has an interest in SE Texas weather.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday!

Raw GFS numbers suggest New Years Day starts at freezing at 6 am, and is -0.3ºC at 6 pm, suggesting mid-afternoon highs wouldn't be much above freezing at the Cotton Bowl. (BTW, I think the better Big XII team should go to Holiday Bowl, since Texas, after a mediocre season, enjoys warm San Diego weather and SoCal delights, while BCS worthy Mizzou goes to cold and brown Dallas). No precip, but pressures still rising, so some wind.

[Portastorm]

I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday!

They should be used to "chilly" receptions in Texas by now, CC!

Hey, I saw your earlier note about Brownsville. You're right! One of the old-timers must have popped into the office for a holiday party and they let him write a forecast discussion. That was surprising. And like we have mused for years now, back in the day you could always count on Brownsville NWS to keep an eagle eye out for Arctic airmasses plunging into Texas, probably due to the citrus concerns.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From NWS Brownsville's AFD this afternoon.....

REMAINDER OF
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS QUIET AT THIS TIME. BEYOND
FORECAST TIME FRAME...GFS SUGGESTING PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT
AROUND SUNRISE NEW YEARS DAY...WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OFFSHORE
...AND 25 TO 35 KNOTS INLAND...DUE TO 1062 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER
COLORADO. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY
PANS OUT OR NOT.

[Kennethb]

I just finished reading an article in Texas Monthly about the Cotton Bowl and it mentioned the 1979 bowl game played in "Arctic like" conditons. I can't think of a better enviroment for all of those Razorback fans next Tuesday!

They should be used to "chilly" receptions in Texas by now, CC!

Hey, I saw your earlier note about Brownsville. You're right! One of the old-timers must have popped into the office for a holiday party and they let him write a forecast discussion. That was surprising. And like we have mused for years now, back in the day you could always count on Brownsville NWS to keep an eagle eye out for Arctic airmasses plunging into Texas, probably due to the citrus concerns.

Must have been a really good party. Sounds like the eggnog must have been spiked with some really good stuff.




*edited by southerngale to remove Kennethb's post from inside the quotes

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the Houston NWS afternoon AFD...

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF 2008 CERTAINLY LOOK
INTERESTING. LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PATTERN
AMPLIFYING AROUND NEW YEARS WHICH LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A SURGE OF
POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO TEXAS. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF RUN TO
RUN CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF THE
COLD AIR AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH. AS THE MORNING
DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCH!