Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[JonathanBelles]

gosh, if those maps were only at the surface, i'd be jumping out of my skin! At least I, if those maps hold up, might get some frz rain or sleet.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we finally might get a big arctic blast this season! We've touched 32/low 30's a few times this winter but have not had a substantial freeze which is quite rare by this time of year. I'm really liking the consistency and we could possibly have some winter precip too! Merry Christmas everyone!

[Ivanhater]

Just UNREAL arctic plunge taking shape for the New years with Snow for the deep south...Lets just keep the run consistency going!!

[Lowpressure]

That looks very impressive.

[boca]

I'll take a road trip if thuis happens.It would be nice to have the low actually go below 50°F in South Florida for once. Its been 80°F every day with non stop AC except for 2 days in November.I'm just not buying into this yet unless its within 7 days or less.I'm more inclined to believe donsoutherland1 post.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=99486

[Opal storm]

I agree, there's still a lot of time before we should get hyped up. But the consistency and the other models jumping on board is a good sign. But who knows, tomorrow it could be showing nothing at all. We should know whether this is real or a joke by this weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone checked GFS or Canadian ensembles. I haven't, just wondering if anyone else has.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone checked GFS or Canadian ensembles. I haven't, just wondering if anyone else has.

OK, not much precip on 12Z GFS ensembles where it would do most good, but quite a few runs with the 540 dm thickness line of joy deep into Florida.


Link to PSU GFS 12Z ensembles.

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow, if that holds true that would be amazing. It would be something to see the Arctic air plunge straight down into the South.. On the graphic Ivanhater posted it looks VERY cold for the Mid South.

[boca]

The 00GFS jst came out. Lets see if the trend continues.

[boca]

I think the GFS model is on crack they have the 0 degree thermal line over the Keys and a 1056 high over Montana/Wyoming.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[MGC]

I agree the GFS looks a bit too cold. If that were the case it would be like 1977 and snow in south Florida......MGC

[VoodooCadillac]

Is this the first "official" recognition that this possibilty exists? From Memphis NWS:

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A RATHER DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INDICATE A DEEP FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH
AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSION INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE NATION. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT MAY BE MUCH COLDER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW YEAR.

[boca]

The 06GFS now shows the freezing line no where near Florida. Their probably will be no cold frontal passage for South Florida the way the pattern is set up.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml
The freezing line went from the Keys to now Southerm New Jersey on this run.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro shows near 1030 mb pressure in Houston, with cold air advection still going strong.



Trough still to the West...

[MississippiHurricane]

Looks like the WFO in Jackson is "hinting" as this now as well. A clip from the AFD follows:

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN AS NOTED ABOVE. THE
GFS SETS US UP FOR A DIRECT SHOT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH...WHICH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR FIRST FEW DAYS OF 2008...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN CUTS OFF POWERFUL NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
EITHER WAY SOME VERY COLD AIR COMES DOWN DURING THOSE FIRST FEW DAYS
AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING IN COMING MODEL RUNS.

[boca]

The 12zGFS shows the cold air coming into Florida. On day 9 the freezing line is in the Keys.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12zGFS shows the cold air coming into Florida. On day 9 the freezing line is in the Keys.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Not good. That suggests possibility of winter wx in Florida, but if we are going to damage the vital South Texas grapefruit and orange crops, at the very least I want an ice storm in HOU and a day off of work. And that shows no precip in important part of Texas while sub-freezing


(I mean, it snows in Amarillo and Lubbock every year, that doesn't count).

[MississippiHurricane]

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreati ... 6?dayNum=8

Jan 3rd.............60% chance for rain/snow for Jackson Ms. Im sure this will change but hey.......its fun to look at!

[Ivanhater]

Extreme cold still going on!...I think its almost a sure bet an arctic outbreak will occur next week..its to early to tell if wintry precip will happen..that part is flipping back and forth..hell it wasnt supposed to rain today per last night and now its at 60 percent....very exciting week coming up...everyone stay on those forecasts and models...Have a Merry Christmas everyone!!