TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

¡Que Lastima!

12Z Euro still has a 1040 mb high building into Texas with on going cold air advection.




But, tragically, Northwest flow aloft, not favorable for wintry weather!

[jasons2k]

I hope it's all just a tease, really. Now that Christmas is over (almost) I'm done with winter.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Uh, oh. This could be the one that has avoided deep south Texas since 1989. Those model runs of the GFS are unbelieveable, but if they and the EURO are on the same page as far as something big happening.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Houston issues a "Bear Watch!"



"THE MAJOR MODEL RUNS AGREE ON THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFYING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONTS CROSSING THE CWA. 12Z RUNS ARE FASTER WITH THE INITIAL
FROPA...NOW BRINGING IT THROUGH SE TX DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT GIVEN LESS TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. BEYOND
MONDAY THERE`S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR FOR SE TX. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH
COLDER (ABOUT 10 DEGREES C AT 850 MB) THAN THE ECMWF. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE `BEAR WATCH` WILL CONTINUE."

[Portastorm]

The one thing that looks highly suspicious to me is the transitory nature of the arctic air per the GFS and Euro. If we really do see that arctic airmass, there's no way it stays for a day or two and then leaves. We all know how that works.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the models in the next day or two lose the arctic outbreak for Texas next week.

On the plus side and totally unrelated to this thread ... Santa brought me the coolest weather station. Next step is to find a PVC pipe onto which my wind vane/speed indicator will go.

Hope everyone is having a Merry Christmas!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues to show a pretty strong front, but it has backed off significantly from some of the more extreme scenarios seen earlier in the day.

It should be noted however, that a similar situation occurred with yesterday's 18z run only to then be replaced by a much colder 00z run 6 hours later. It should be interesting to see if the same thing happens yet again with tonight's 00z run or if the 00z this time decides to embrace this "warmer" (but still cold) trend. It will be interesting to watch!

[TexasStooge]

Well, most of the Texas state wouldn't have to worry about the winter weather, but there are some cities along the Red River and in the Panhandle areas that are bracing themselves for a rough 24 Hours.

SHERMAN:

Tonight: 37°F
Wednesday: 44°F/29°F

WICHITA FALLS:

Tonight: 32°F
Wednesday: 42°F/27°F

CHILDRESS:

Tonight: 29°F
Wednesday: 42°F/28°F

LUBBOCK:

Tonight: 28°F
Wednesday: 43°F/24°F

[rsdoug1981]

I don't think this has been posted yet...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... hreats.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is much colder than the 18z was, and is now back to showing a truly bitter-cold airmass working into our area next week! This kind of setup has hard freeze potential written all over it, and it could easily produce some of the coldest readings we have seen in a few years...

The front arrives before sunrise on New Year's Day, and is already nearing Brownsville by 6am. (This is all thanks to a 1054+mb high pressure system over the rockies): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif

By late in the day on January 1st, 850mb temperatures fall below 0C over most of the state with strong CAA continuing: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_168l.gif ...The 500mb pattern is also quite impressive at this time: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

By the morning of January 2nd, most of the state is below freezing and the ~1055mb high pressure over the rockies continues to bring in a stream of cold air directly from Canada: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_180l.gif ...850mb temperatures are also extremely cold at this time and are approaching -10C in parts of NE Texas: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_180l.gif

Temperatures then likely do not get out of the 20s (panhandle and far north), 30s (north of I-10) and 40s (south of I-10) for much of the state on the 2nd with a steady cold wind continuing to blow in. The most impressive thing is that these temperatures occur under abundant sunshine. Usually it takes cloud-cover to produce these kind of readings here in Texas (6pm on the 2nd - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif )

By the morning of the 3rd, it is conceivable that many locations are well below the freezing mark (all the way to the immediate coast!) as a 1043mb high pressure system sits right over head: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif

The warmup then begins on the 4th, but it will still be pretty cold. On the morning of the 4th, another lesser freeze threat is likely for a good chunk of the state: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_228l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

EWG


It is all a waste, and a threat to the economically vital South Texas citrus crop, if we don't get some wintry precip from this. Cloud cover and precip would keep the temps up enough to probably spare the trees.



That, and while I like snow and ice, cold, dry weather is depressing. It is why all those retirees in Minnesota and Michigan hop into their Winnebagos and head for the RGV anyway. To escape cold, dry, weather.

[jasons2k]

I agree, it's a complete waste unless there is some snow packaged with it. And I certainly don't wish for someting that could damage the citrus crop (and in-turn badly damage or kill the more tender plants that have cropped-up around Houston). The excitement for a few hours isn't worth the tradeoff of pain the citrus farmers & gardeners could suffer for years to come.

But there is nothing we can do about that but get ready.

I'm just glad this is over a holiday. I'll have plenty of time to prep and save my more tender plants/palms if needed.

Ed, one reason why I moved here from Dallas was to have warmer winters. 'Me no likes the cold.'

[Portastorm]

. . . and this event is still about a week away and a lot can change. For example, the latest 0z European shows the brunt of the coldest air going to our north and east. And the 6z GFS looks nothing like the bitterly cold 0z GFS and is a lot warmer for us.

I'm with you guys though -- bitterly cold air and no snow/ice/sleet with it is like a no-fat Twinkie, or a hotdog bun without the hotdog!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pretty good shower here at the Galleria, although sadly lacking in the thunder and lightning department.

[jasons2k]

Some good news in this, when the models do flip-flop this much, usually the warmer solution wins-out and the cold air goes to the east....

Like the NWS Houston said yesterday: BUT...(AS THERE ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE) EXTENDED GUIDANCE
STILL HINTING AT A RATHER CHILLY/POSSIBLY VERY FRIGID START TO THE
NEW YEAR.

[wxman22]

There still may be some hope for wintry precip as the GFS has a habbit of swithching back to its original forcast right at the last minute (flip flops), just Sunday the GFS showed a winter storm for texas and now its swiched to a drier and colder scenario I would not be suprised if by this weekend the GFS switches back to a winter storm across the state. (So in other words it's typical of the GFS to do this)

[Portastorm]

Sure enough, the 12z GFS run is more along the lines of the 0z Euro and it shows the arctic air sliding to our east and not directly impacting Texas.

(check out the runs around 138 hrs and beyond):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not really buying the "sliding to the east" scenario quite yet. As we have seen all year, most of the chilly air-masses have stayed further west and were slower to reach the east (which is very typical of a La Nina pattern). So why would that pattern break now? With that strong ridge near Florida, it just seems to me like there would be enough resistance to keep this chilly air from flying eastward as quickly as the model shows it doing. Correct?

Either way though, the model does still show a strong front with a few freeze threats behind it...so at the least, this front will likely still be similar to what we just went through this past weekend. It should be interesting to watch and see what the next one to two days worth of model runs do. By the end of the day tomorrow and into Friday, we should hopefully start getting close enough to this event that the model output becomes more and more consistent and we can finally nail down a pretty good idea.

[double D]

I think I'm going to have to jump on the "warmer solution" bandwagon too. Oh well, I'm not too dissapointed because the GFS was showing a cold, dry solution which isn't all that interesting anyway.

On a side note, the GFS has done this several times this year where it has shown a "arctic" blast for 3 or 4 days in a row, then goes much warmer as the event draws nearer. I guess the consistency of the model isn't even woth getting excited about until about 3 days out.

[CaptinCrunch]

Gut feeling on this one is very cold by Jan 2, it wont last as all I see is a 3 day event (1-3) then we'll warm back into the lower 60's by the weekend. But it could change by then, all that arctic air damed up in canada will go south sooner or later, mine as well send it to Texas....LOL

[Steve]

>>I am not really buying the "sliding to the east" scenario quite yet.

Of course you aren't because it means you get no extreme weather.

Merry Christmas anyway. It's mild and windy in the bayou sugarcane fields today.

Steve