NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for North West Australia
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Sunday the 23rd of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows evident at this time although there is
increased thunderstorm activity north of 10S near an active monsoon trough.
Computer models develop a low between 115E and 120E early in the week with an
increasing chance of cyclone formation from Wednesday onwards. At this stage the
likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

JTWC, wake up!!

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Monday the 24th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows evident at this time although there is
increased thunderstorm activity near 10S along an active monsoon trough.
Computer guidance suggests a low may develop in the vicinity of 10S 115E-120E on
Tuesday or Wednesday with an increased risk of cyclone formation on Thursday. At
this stage the likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three
days is:
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: High

[Chacor]

[wyq614]

JTWC 还是没有醒，我已经通知中国台风论坛，密切关注澳大利亚近海这几天的情况。

JTWC has still not waken up. But I've informed the Chinese typhoon forums and told them to be attentive on the Australian seas these days.

[Coredesat]

This needs to be moved to Active Storms and retitled Invest 98S.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1340UTC 25 DECEMBER 2007

Gale Warning FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC a monsoon trough was located near 10S and was near stationary.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 500nm north of the monsoon trough between 90E and 115E.

FORECAST
W/NW winds increasing to 25/35 knots after 251800UTC rough seas low to moderate
swell.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 25 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Tuesday the 25th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows evident at this time although there is
increased thunderstorm activity near 10S along an active monsoon trough.
Computer guidance suggests a low may develop in the vicinity of 12S 115E-122E on
Tuesday or Wednesday with an increased risk of cyclone formation later Thursday
or Friday. At this stage the likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the
next three days is:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 26th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

An active monsoon trough lies near 10S. There are indications a low will form
between 115-120E and develop as it slowly moves to the south from Thursday
onwards.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Thursday: Low
Friday: High
Saturday: High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

Not good near 10S, but excellent once you start moving poleward.

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection but not a lot of change in organization.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Thursday the 27th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

There are no significant lows currently in the region however an active monsoon
trough lies near 11S. A low is expected to form along the trough between 90-100E
in the next 24 hours and develop as it moves to the west. There is an increasing
chance of cyclone formation over the weekend.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Friday: Low
Saturday: High
Sunday: High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 116.5E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH OF THE LESSER
SUNDA ISLANDS (INDONESIA). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 261227Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 261338Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 25-30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ALSO SHOW SLP
NEAR 1005 MB. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE, PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LIMITING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:11S118E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0802UTC 27 DECEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 90 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal two south [11.2S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal five east [117.5E]
Recent movement : south at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 20 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots rough seas low to moderate swell, may increase to 30
to 40 knots rough seas moderate swell after 1200 UTC 28 December.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 27 December: Within 105 nautical miles of 12.2 south 117.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 28 December: Within 120 nautical miles of 13.4 south 118.0 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 27 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[Coredesat]

174
TPXS10 PGTW 270616

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF JAVA

B. 27/0530Z

C. 12.5S/8

D. 114.6E/2

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/12HRS (27/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

ROACH

---------------

658
WWIO21 KNES 270913

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 12.0S

D. 117.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...MI SHOWS A WEAK BROAD LLC TO THE NE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE. IT IS MOVING SOUTH BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE CONVECTION IS WARMING
AND BECOMING MORE LINEAR. STILL .2 BANDING CAN BE MEASURED FOR A DT OF
1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. SO FT IS 1.0 BASED ON CONSENSUS...GALLINA

ADDL POSITIONS...11.3S 117.5E 27/0439Z TRMM 85/37
11.7S 117.4E 27/0611Z AMSU 89

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 27th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Tropical Low off northwest Kimberley coast
Location :near 11S 117E at 9am WDT Thursday
about 960 kilometres [520 nautical miles]
northwest of Broome
Central Pressure :998hPa
Recent movement :drifting slowly south
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : High
Saturday : High
Sunday : High

REMARKS - An active monsoon trough lies near 11S. Deep convection has increased
over the last 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours the tropical low is expected to
drift to the south. Gales are not expected along the coast within 48 hours.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1249UTC 27 DECEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 90 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal seven south [11.7S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal three east [117.3E]
Recent movement : south at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots rough seas low to moderate swell, may increase to 30
to 40 knots rough seas moderate swell after 1200 UTC 28 December.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 28 December: Within 110 nautical miles of 12.7 south 117.4 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 28 December: Within 130 nautical miles of 13.8 south 117.3 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 27 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

AXAU01 APRF 271236
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1236 UTC 27/12/2007
Name: Tropical low
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 117.3E
Location Accuracy: within 90 nm [165 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 12.7S 117.4E: 110 [205]: 025 [045]: 994
+24: 28/1200: 13.8S 117.3E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 992
+36: 29/0000: 14.5S 116.9E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 988
+48: 29/1200: 15.9S 116.7E: 170 [315]: 045 [085]: 982
+60: 30/0000: 16.3S 115.8E: 180 [335]: 055 [100]: 974
+72: 30/1200: 16.9S 115.6E: 190 [350]: 060 [110]: 968
REMARKS:
Poorly defined low level circulation with most convection south of the monsoon
trough. System expected to drift southwards over the next 24 to 48 hours and
develop as shear decreases.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1831UTC 27 DECEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 75 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal four south [13.4S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal six east [117.6E]
Recent movement : south at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone within in the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots with squalls to 45 knots rough seas low to moderate
swell. Average winds likely to increase to 30 to 40 knots with rough to very
rough seas moderate swell after 1200 UTC 28 December.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 28 December: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.9 south 117.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.4 south 118.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 28 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[Coredesat]

TCFA.

WTXS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 117.9E TO 16.0S 117.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 117.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4S 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 271722Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 271315Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION DESPITE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL NORTHERLY WINDS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DIS-
TURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REORIENTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE
TO AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.//

[P.K.]

Down 6hPa in the last 6 hours and forecast to reach cat 2 within 24 hours.

WTAU05 APRF 280101
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:14S118E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0058UTC 28 DECEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal zero south [14.0S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal seven east [117.7E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone within in the next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots 1200 UTC 28
December, further increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 29 December.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 28 December: Within 90 nautical miles of 15.1 south 117.8 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 29 December: Within 105 nautical miles of 15.9 south 117.8 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 28 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Latest:




Beginning to look like a TC!

[Chacor]

Expected to strengthen significantly.

AXAU01 APRF 280127
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0126 UTC 28/12/2007
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 117.7E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1200: 15.1S 117.8E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 986
+24: 29/0000: 15.9S 117.8E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 976
+36: 29/1200: 16.6S 117.4E: 110 [205]: 060 [110]: 966
+48: 30/0000: 17.2S 116.9E: 140 [255]: 070 [130]: 958
+60: 30/1200: 17.7S 116.5E: 145 [270]: 080 [150]: 946
+72: 31/0000: 18.0S 116.0E: 170 [315]: 090 [165]: 934
REMARKS:
Early visible images give a wrap of 0.5 and a DT2.5. System organisation has
significantly improved in the last 24 hours with further development likely as
it moves to the south into a more favourable environment with less wind shear.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.