One last hurrah - pulling a Zeta? E. Atlantic

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Hurricanehink
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One last hurrah - pulling a Zeta? E. Atlantic

#1 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:04 pm

Image

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
26N38W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N39W ON THE 27/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 26N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
21N41W 17N43W 14N54W TO BARBADOS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE 26N41W SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N38W.
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE 26N41W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 24N37W
AND 19N45W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 24N40W AND 23N45W. THIS SECOND TROUGH EASILY MAY DEVELOP INTO
A COLD FRONT AS IT IS BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY TO THE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER

MT


It looks similar to Zeta from 2005, and it looks like it has been organizing somewhat, so I'll ask - is there any chance of it developing?
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#2 Postby curtadams » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:18 pm

CMC says yes: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/23.html
Other models say possible, but unlikely:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/12.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/23.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 06/23.html
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:19 pm

Is Pablo trying to wreck the NHC's Christmas holidays?

Yes, I think it is a tropical or subtropical storm right now. It will probably not be mentioned for a while since they are likely going to let this sit for a while.
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#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:23 pm

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_14.png

Unflagged 40-45 kt barb at about 0900Z. Probably about a 45 kt storm.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:48 pm

Image

Image

So far it looks like a pure non-tropical system.
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#6 Postby RL3AO » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:08 pm

Is that a front to it's west?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#7 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:Is that a front to it's west?



Looks like a front extending from near the center Southwards...
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#8 Postby RL3AO » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:13 pm

Hold on! 4 more days until STS Arthur! :lol:
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:29 pm

There seems to be some convection firing near the center there...
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Re: One last hurrah - pulling a Zeta? (E. Atlantic)

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:48 pm

Image
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#11 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:02 pm

*looks at calender.*

...

...

*looks at calender again.*

Somehow, I'm not surprised.
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Re: One last hurrah - pulling a Zeta? (E. Atlantic)

#12 Postby Frank2 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:04 pm

Ugh - not again!

Well, it looks more a bit more tropical in that large colorized image, but, it's not quite there yet - we'll see what happens...
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#13 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:09 pm

It's attached to a front just to the west. I wouldn't get my hopes up unless the front somehow passes without affecting the system.
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:14 pm

looks a little tool frontal to be classified as Pablo
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:05 pm

Image

Image

Convection increasing.
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#16 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:24 pm

I kinda hope it hangs out until January, so we'll set a record with Arthur for the earliest storm formation in a year in ATL history. On the other hand, Pablo would be our third off-season storm this year, and the 3rd time in history a season has had more than 2 OS storms (2003, and 1887 I think). And it could be a year to year crossover. Decisions...

Meh, I talk like it's definitely going to develop, even though it likely wont.

Edit: Let's just say it becomes Tropical Depression 18 on December 31st, and strengthens into a tropical storm on January first.

Pablo or Arthur. Wouldn't that be something to have an "A" storm form from 18L? And would it be 18L.ARTHUR or 01L.ARTHUR?

Again, all just hypothetical.
Last edited by Cyclone1 on Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Coredesat

#17 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:32 pm

The band still looks more like a bow echo than anything else. The surface analysis still shows this as frontal.

EDIT: The 12Z NOGAPS has this remaining a weak system. 18Z GFS has it becoming absorbed in 54 hours.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:42 pm

Image
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Re:

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:55 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:I kinda hope it hangs out until January, so we'll set a record with Arthur for the earliest storm formation in a year in ATL history. On the other hand, Pablo would be our third off-season storm this year, and the 3rd time in history a season has had more than 2 OS storms (2003, and 1887 I think). And it could be a year to year crossover. Decisions...

Meh, I talk like it's definitely going to develop, even though it likely wont.

Edit: Let's just say it becomes Tropical Depression 18 on December 31st, and strengthens into a tropical storm on January first.

Pablo or Arthur. Wouldn't that be something to have an "A" storm form from 18L? And would it be 18L.ARTHUR or 01L.ARTHUR?

Again, all just hypothetical.


I have no idea on the protocol for that, but in that unlikely scenario, I'd declare it Pablo even if it wasn't named until after January 1 if it became TD18 before that. That way, it prevents a potential post-season misnaming, and also signifies that it was out of a depression that formed in 2007, not 2008.
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#20 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:58 pm

TROUGHING
CONTROLS THE PATTERN BETWEEN 30W AND ABOUT 50W...STRETCHING
FARTHER W IN THE TROPICS...DUE TO A VERTICALLY STACKED NEARLY
STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N38W. SFC TROUGHS EXTEND
BOTH S AND NE OF LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST
ORGANIZED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND N OF THE LOW CENTER
GENERALLY FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 32W-39W. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AS IT GETS CUT
OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
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