TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[richtrav]

Ahh God Bless Ya EWG, wishing for all these disastrous Arctic events only to be let down again and again. I'm afraid you're just living in the wrong decade, you need to be in the '70s and '80s, the Gilded Age of cold weather in TX. Personally I love the milder winters but there's nothing either one of us can do to change anything, it is what it is.

As for these runs, they have consistently been suggesting lately it's going more east than straight south. Love how deep South Texas is magically spared the dreaded 0 degree line in this last run, like they drew the map with me in mind or something On the weather last night they showed the temps up in Canada and Alaska last night and the coldest weather looked to be in the eastern parts of Canada rather than towards Alaska

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Did one of the cold weather hounds come out of retirement at NWS Brownsville??

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
845 AM CST THU DEC 27 2007

.....................A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEW YEARS
NIGHT CAUSING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR NEW YEARS MORNING WOULD NOT
BE THAT UNCOMMON. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO SET UP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEAR YEAR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND HUDSON BAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME BUT MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR IN THE NEXT UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CST THU DEC 27 2007

<snippet>
EARLY 2008 IS LOOKING VERY...VERY COLD! CONSISTENT ENSEMBLE
OUTLOOK OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST...DRIEST AIR. TRIVIAL AS A NICE
CHUNK OF FRIGID CENTRAL CANADIAN AIR HEADS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. FORECASTING A COLD SNAP FOR SE
TEXAS OVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AREAWIDE SUB-FREEZING
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...DAILY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50 F MARK. AN
EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WITH NORTHERN COUNTY DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS. IF THIS CHILLY SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN FREEZE WARNINGS. STAY TUNED!



We're struggling to reach the 50F mark today. It's only 47° or 48° at all of the Instaweather/Weatherbug stations around me.

http://www.kfdm.com/sections/weather/instaweather/

We keep talking about next week. I think this week and this past week just might be colder than what we'll see next week. And without precipitation, it's just cold. I'm all for colder and snowy weather though!

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the afternoon Houston AFD...

NOW FOR THE CHILLY NEW YEARS FRONT...CURRENT PROGS INDICATE THE
FRONT TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 6 PM MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SCOOT
OFF THROUGH THE GULF. THE COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT
TO SEE SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY NEED FOR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CENTER IS
STILL PROGGED TO TRACK DOWN THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SO CAA
CONTINUES IN SETX THROUGH WED MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A COLD NIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...HAVE UNDERCUT THE MOS
NUMBERS BY QUITE A BIT.

Mid 20s, while not an "extreme" event, is also not too shabby for a winter front here in Houston. It is pretty rare (especially over the last few years) to see IAH drop below the 28F mark. Last season the coldest reading IAH saw was 26F, and it is very possible that this upcoming front could feature a repeat performance. Temperatures that cold will be enough to freeze over any standing water and create lots of thick hoar frost (given adequately calm winds and clear skies). It very well may "look like it snowed" come Wednesday and Thursday morning of next week.

[PineyWoods]

I'm not seeing this Cold outbreak around Jan 1-3, at least according to the Afternoon AFD from Fort Worth -

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CST THU DEC 27 2007

THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...AS A
FAIR WEATHER REGIME (DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING) SETTLES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TOWARD THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SOLUTION FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK IS
QUITE HIGH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS EVENT."

OVERALL...RATHER SEDATE DECEMBER AND JANUARY WEATHER PATTERNS WILL
PREDOMINATE...AND THE STRONG WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COLDEST ARCTIC AND CANADIAN AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS.



That and I keep looking up into Alaska and the NW Territory and Yukon in Canada and just don't see these real cold temps that will transfer this cold air. That and looking at the DFW forecasted temps for next Monday thru Wednesday are calling for highs around 50 and lows in the lower 30's.

Don't get me wrong, I love the cold and would welcome it. I'm just not seeing it, though I'm certainly no meteorologist, so take my observations with a grain of salt.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In case anyone has not yet seen the 18z GFS, it is now much colder than the 12z was for Texas. In Houston, it shows highs only in the 40s to near 50F next Tuesday through Thursday and on Thursday morning it knocks the low at IAH down to 26.6F (meaning outlying areas could be <25F). Also, at the peak of the event, the 18z GFS is showing 850mb temperatures over Houston getting down to -8.1C...which is pretty impressive.

All in all, anyone expecting only a glancing blow with "typical" winter temperatures may be in for a surprise. Is it certainly not everyday when parts of the Houston metro can potentially get below the 25 degree mark..and it is also not everyday when we can see 2-3 consecutive days in a row with highs in the 40s to near 50F and have sunshine overhead at the same time.

[PTrackerLA]

I picked all of our grapefruits yesterday (except the one's 15 feet high ) so I'm ready for a hard freeze! As long as we don't go below 25 degrees I don't even bother trying to cut back/cover the tree.

[southerngale]

After a brief warmup to near 70° on Monday, NWS Lake Charles doesn't make it sound like any big deal.

(from the afternoon AFD)
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BRINGS IN COLDER AIR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING.

We've been dipping into the upper 20's quite a bit lately.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has IAH down to 28ºF Thursday morning.


Nothing earth shattering, but a pretty good freeze. Wasted, if there isn't any precip.

[Extremeweatherguy]

28F at IAH would likely mean ~25F at Hooks and ~22F at Conroe (based on what we have observed in the past under similar radiational cooling conditions). Those type of readings are not too shabby at all! Sure, this is nothing "extreme", but it would still be a decent hard freeze event for areas north and west of downtown Houston, something we haven't seen much of in the last few years. One thing I do have to agree with though is that I would much rather see these numbers in the presence of a white, fluffy form of precipitation called snow. Cold air without precipitation is definitely a waste.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So far the 12z run is looking pretty impressive. At 96 hours the trough is slightly further SW than on the 00z run and the high pressure center is ~1054mb: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS now shows a low of 26.8F at IAH next Thursday morning. Pretty impressive. It also shows the high temperature in Houston only reaching the lower 40s next Wednesday afternoon even with some sunshine.

[southerngale]

The 12z GFS now shows a low of 26.8F at IAH next Thursday morning. Pretty impressive. It also shows the high temperature in Houston only reaching the lower 40s next Wednesday afternoon even with some sunshine.

If you're going to use an s word, make it the "snow" word please. Cold and sunshine... bah humbug!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Brownsville is still very concerned about this outbreak. I haven't seen this much concern from that office in awhile, even from the slightest freeze threats.

[lrak]

(Jan 1)Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. NWS forecast for Corpus Christi, it was 34, yesterday. Looking forward to a banana tree FREEZE, darn things have been going crazy for several years now and have dislodged my fence.

[southerngale]

It's not expected to get that cold here, Irak.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Per NWS Lake Charles - same for Beaumont and Lumberton.

We've had colder temps than that a bunch of times already this year. There's a reason I don't believe the long range GFS' Arctic tundra predictions.
And yes, I know... it's possible that they could still lower the forecast temps significantly. But even if they do, where's all that winter precip we were supposed to get? I almost bought snowshoes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS is extremely cold for next week, especially Wednesday and Thursday. It shows the high temperature in Houston only reaching the upper 30s on Wednesday afternoon and then by Thursday morning it drops the low at IAH all the way down to a bone-chilling 27F (meaning outlying areas..including most of the northern suburbs..would be even colder than that).

[vbhoutex]

This applies to the SE TX area, mainly the Houston Metro area.

From Jeff:

Fast progressive flow over the lower 48 will greatly amplify over the next 5 days with a resultant arctic air dump into the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.



Calm pattern on tap through the weekend as upper air undergoes transition with slowing and amplifying of the upper level flow pattern. Ridge axis will build off the US W coast deep into Alaska with downstream central US trough being carved out by New Year’s Eve. Cold arctic air mass currently over NE Alaska and NW Canada will be released southward behind lee Rockies surface low pressure system early next week. Even though the pattern is highly amplified it will remain progressive (west to east flow) and the deep trough will move east of TX by the end of next week with far long range guidance and pattern suggestive of much milder weather in the Jan 8-15 time period.



At the surface strong arctic cold dome will drop out of NW Canada into Montana and then into Colorado by New Year’s Day. Strong surface arctic front will blast through TX on New Year’s Eve with rapidly falling temps. and gusty NW winds. Large 1040mb+ (30.71in) (1043mb or 30.80 in on the GFS) high is progged to settle over SC TX by late Jan 1st and the 2nd leading to cold conditions. It has been some time since high pressures of this magnitude have been seen in the southern half of TX. Given the high location long duration sub-freezing weather should be expected unless clouds are able to spill into the region and retard the cooling at night. For now will go with lower to mid 20’s along and N of I-10 for Wed and Thurs mornings. Time below freezing and extent of the temps. may require hard freeze warnings for counties along and N of I-10. GFS guidance remains too warm for the entire period as it is likely not grasping the intensity of this air mass. Additionally, widespread snows over the plains the past several days will allow only modest modification of this air mass so guidance may not be cold enough. Potential is for 12-15 hours below freezing on the morning of the 2nd and the 3rd with temps. cold enough to kill tropical vegetation and possibly cold enough to be concerned with outside pipes in our western and northern 1/3rd of counties.

[jasons2k]

This is what concerns me:

"Potential is for 12-15 hours below freezing on the morning of the 2nd and the 3rd with temps. cold enough to kill tropical vegetation"

I'll defintely prep as best as possible, but lower 20's would be bad news for some of my plants and will catch a lot of people off-guard with all the tropicals in the ground now. We did OK last year with 26F (at IAH) but that was pushing it. If this plays-out as Jeff has forecasted, it will defintely change the landscape of Houston....and for gardeners this is not good news.

[Furious George]

We in SE TX could be even colder than that if the arctic plunge would be a little more direct. Check out the CPC predictions for temp anomolies. Shows that even if the bulk of the cold air does go to the SE US, we can still get some chilly air out of this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

Now, check out the latest 3 month temp prediction from the CPC. Where is the highest probability of higher than avg temps - right over SE TX. I think we need this front because winter might not be around a lot in the next few months. While I don't really want lows in the lower 20's - highs in the upper 30's would be nice just to remind us it's wintertime!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 1_temp.gif