INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

That low has been spinning around out there for 3-4 days. It's not far from where TS Zeta formed on Dec. 30th of 2005:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

SSTs look a bit cool (maybe 24C) but high enough to support a subtropical storm. QuikSCAT pass from this morning indicates 35-40 kts. It all comes down to whether the NHC will bother to name it. Should begin encountering increasing wind shear in about 3-4 days as it moves SW-WSW at 5-10 mph. No land areas will be affected.

[cycloneye]

Its getting dark in that part of the Atlantic,but you can see how the system looks in the visible image.By the way,the NHC floater and NRL(The site) are having problems as they haved not been updated in their images.Only this site ramsdis doesnt have problems updating the images.

[sargeabernathy]

They just reworded the TWD:

...CORRECTION TO INTRODUCE SPECIAL FEATURE...

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 27N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE OF BANDS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT
THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND SE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THAT SEEMS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE MOST COMMON TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW WITH CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO
THE SURFACE...AS IN THIS CASE. ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH
THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO. SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCES MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE SW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY
TIME.

[wxman57]

QS indicates it has TS force winds. Question is, will NHC bother to name it?

WONT41 KNHC 291919

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO

[HURAKAN]

They're just making the knives sharp enough to slice the fillet. We should have Pablo very soon!!

Pable waking up from after a 12-year sleep!!!

[Cyclone1]

Code red. Not a "TWO" but still.

[HURAKAN]

QS indicates it has TS force winds. Question is, will NHC bother to name it?

IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

Subtropical Storm means name.

[cycloneye]

I am giving credit to our friend Hurricanehink who was the first one to see this system.In my case,I was not paying any attention to that part of the Atlantic.But as things are going in the past few years,we will have to look at the Atlantic the 12 months of the year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wish wxman57 would show up on Extreme Weather Guys' Texas winter weather threads. We get no pro-met input on the weather most likely to affect me, and my palm and citrus trees.

[Coredesat]

Code red. Not a "TWO" but still.

TWOs aren't issued in the offseason. That's what the STDSes are for.

[Hurricanehink]

I am giving credit to our friend Hurricanehink who was the first one to see this system.In my case,I was not paying any attention to that part of the Atlantic.But as things are going in the past few years,we will have to look at the Atlantic the 12 months of the year.

Hah, thank you much Luis. It just so happened I was bored, and I for one believe the door for the tropics are never fully closed.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters Take on 95L



Above is Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground discussion about 95L.

[Coredesat]

[Cyclone1]

Code red. Not a "TWO" but still.

TWOs aren't issued in the offseason. That's what the STDSes are for.

Yeah I know, but the "Code red" was a reference to RL3AO's TWO scale. It's not coming from a TWO, which is what the scale is for, but its the equivalent.

[Coredesat]

We have a TCFA:



UNCLAS//N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.0N 38.0W TO 30.5N 38.0W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AT 291500Z METSAT IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A 1008MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 38.0W AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD
AT APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS DERIVED
FROM A 1200Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. CORE-CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGING WINDS ARE ALSO AIDING IN THE SYSTEM'S OUTFLOW.
ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 301600Z DEC 06.//

This shouldn't be taken to be an indicator that this is becoming a tropical cyclone; NLMOC issues TCFAs for subtropical systems, as well.

[Swimdude]

Code red. Not a "TWO" but still.

TWOs aren't issued in the offseason. That's what the STDSes are for.

[Insert STD joke here.]

Anyway, having storms this time of year is really just awkward.

[JonathanBelles]

I heard it during Zeta, and I wanted to see if it was true that New Years has a bad rap for TC's as there is a miniature peak in at least the ATL in activity.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291951
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1951 UTC SAT DEC 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20071229 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071229 1800 071230 0600 071230 1800 071231 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.8N 37.7W 27.9N 38.0W 27.0N 39.2W 25.5N 41.2W
BAMD 27.8N 37.7W 28.5N 36.3W 29.0N 35.7W 29.1N 36.2W
BAMM 27.8N 37.7W 27.9N 37.6W 27.2N 38.3W 26.3N 39.7W
LBAR 27.8N 37.7W 28.8N 36.2W 29.3N 34.4W 29.5N 32.9W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 40KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 40KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071231 1800 080101 1800 080102 1800 080103 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 43.5W 21.8N 49.3W 22.3N 55.2W 25.9N 54.5W
BAMD 28.3N 38.0W 26.3N 43.4W 23.4N 49.7W 22.3N 53.0W
BAMM 25.0N 42.1W 22.3N 49.2W 20.0N 55.9W 20.7N 58.8W
LBAR 29.1N 31.6W 27.1N 29.9W 23.6N 26.9W 21.9N 22.5W
SHIP 38KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.6N LONM12 = 38.2W DIRM12 = 20DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 38.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 125NM


No upgrade in this run.

[RL3AO]

Ask and you shall receive.

[Cyclenall]

I cannot believe this is happening AGAIN! This is exciting since these events are so unusual.

When I go to the NRL site, I don't see 95L posted on it.

From the NHC site:

000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO