INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

its very close to being an STS or possibly a TS. NHC may be waiting until 10 p.m. when the net round of advisories come in

[HURAKAN]

its very close to being an STS or possibly a TS. NHC may be waiting until 10 p.m. when the net round of advisories come in

Derek, nice hearing from you. Looks like Pablo is in the boat.

[RL3AO]

I was skeptical, but it is clearly a (S)TS now.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

Another Out-Of-Season Development Possible
Low pressure over the open Atlantic near 27 North, 38 west, about 950 miles south of the Azores, has begun to acquire some tropical characteristics as of Saturday evening. Thunderstorms began to develop around this area of low pressure Friday afternoon, and have become more widespread over the last 24 hours. If this trend continues, a subtropical or tropical storm could form from this feature in the next day or two. The low will remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days, trapped beneath an upper-level low in the area. After that, the storm will drift slowly westward. The low currently poses no threat to any land area. Should the low be deemed a subtropical or tropical storm in the next day or two, the next name on the list for 2007 is Pablo. By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Frank Strait

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks better then Berry, or what ever the hell the thing was that started this season. But any ways I expect it to be upgraded at 10pm est. I say straight to tropical storm. Maybe some subtropical.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL:

WHXX04 KWBC 292327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 27.7 37.7 20./ 5.0
6 27.8 37.4 73./ 3.0
12 27.7 36.9 103./ 4.4
18 27.2 36.7 153./ 4.9
24 27.0 36.6 155./ 2.1
30 26.7 36.9 225./ 4.3
36 26.4 37.7 247./ 7.3
42 25.8 38.7 241./10.6
48 24.8 40.0 230./16.1
54 23.9 41.3 237./14.5
60 23.1 42.7 238./15.2
66 22.5 44.2 251./14.8
72 21.9 45.9 249./17.7
78 21.2 47.6 249./16.7
84 20.7 49.1 251./15.4
90 20.3 50.9 257./17.4
96 20.4 52.6 273./15.4
102 20.4 54.4 273./17.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

7:05 PM EST Discussion from TPC:


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE WELL-DEFINED NON-BAROCLINIC CYCLONE CONTINUES IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC NEAR 28N38W. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND HAS DEVELOPED PRONOUNCED
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER TROP. DESPITE WATER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CYCLONE OF AROUND 22-23C...MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ON THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A
MINIMAL SUBTROPICAL STORM. QUIKSCAT WINDS...WHILE HAVING THE
USUAL AMBIGUITY ISSUES IN RAINY CONDITIONS...INDICATE THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 KT AS THE STRONGEST
UPPER TROP WESTERLIES ARE BYPASSING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST BY A
DEVELOPING MID-OCEAN RIDGE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW...TONIGHT MAY BE
THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION TO ITS CONVECTION AND MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A
NAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

30/0000 UTC 27.8N 37.7W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF

This model keeps it alive more longer than GFDL.

[CrazyC83]

We might have Pablo on our doorstep...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It maybe pretty close to becoming a warm core tropical storm.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, very well might be fully tropical...

[cycloneye]

Another STDS may come shortly.

[Coredesat]

The GFDL header shouldn't be paid too much mind as long as it says "Invest"; it simply reflects the intensity at which the NHC initialized it.

[CrazyC83]

Another STDS may come shortly.

Probably in the next 30 minutes or so, since the advisory time would be in about an hour.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any minute now I expect a advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Andrea:


Pablito-to-be:


Do or die time!!

[wxman57]

Any minute now I expect a advisory.

Don't count on it. There's no reason at all for the NHC to jump on this and name it. They'll watch it through the night and take a look at visible images during the day tomorrow. Doesn't look tropical to me, and convection is still lacking around the center. Plus, it's way out to sea and no threat to land. So I think the NHC will just take their time and watch it.

[Coredesat]

Convection has actually decreased close to the center in the past couple hours. It also appears that the dry air is gradually entraining into the circulation; the air is not as moist near the center as it was previously.