Timor Sea: Invest 90P

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:29 am

02/0830 UTC 20.3S 40.2E T2.5/3.5 ELNUS -- South Indian Ocean

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 11:44 am

Not much at the moment. 92S is trying but BoM says "no way."

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 12:19 pm

Going down.

#84 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:58 pm

It seems the guys from Meteo France were celebrating already the New Year when they released the first couple of advisories on this system. Very far from the tropical cyclone category.

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:13 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:55 am CST Thursday 3 January 2008

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a low about 260 kilometres
southwest of Darwin. The low is expected to remain slow moving for a day or so
before moving eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Friday or Saturday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is estimated to be:
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Chacor · #86 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:21 pm

This is for 90S east of Darwin entering the Gulf of Carpentaria, not 92S, HURAKAN...

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:34 pm

#88 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:14 pm

Chacor · #89 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:11 pm

DDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:08 am CST [10:38 am WDT] Thursday 3 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the Northern
Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH has also been declared for coastal and island communities from
Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 9:30 am CST [9:00 am WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
160 kilometres north northeast of Wyndham and 310 kilometres southwest of Darwin
and moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility that the low will develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE in
the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf tonight, and GALES could affect coastal and island
communities between Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia and Daly River Mouth
in the Northern Territory early tomorrow.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [9:00 am WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 128.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST [1:30 pm WDT] Thursday 03 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#90 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:17 pm

Chacor · #91 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:18 pm

I suppose this means they still expect it to continue heading east into the GoC and re-develop into a TC there.

#92 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 10:18 pm

A bloom in convection. No increase in organization nontheless.

wyq614 · #93 Postby **wyq614** » Wed Jan 02, 2008 10:37 pm

从阿尼塔、达玛到埃尔努斯，留尼汪总是在一开始过于乐观，然后就不得不保守下来。

From Anita, Dama to Elnus, La Reunion is always too optimistic at first, then has to downgrade its forecast again and again.

#94 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:23 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST [1:30 pm WDT] Thursday 3 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell
Plateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Daly River
Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 12:30 pm CST [12:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
155 kilometres north of Wyndham and 345 kilometres west southwest of Darwin and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility that the low will develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE
tonight, and GALES could affect coastal and island communities between Mitchell
Plateau in Western Australia and Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory
overnight or early tomorrow morning.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region from
tomorrow.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 pm CST [12:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 128.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST [4:30 pm WDT] Thursday 03 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Coredesat · #95 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:23 am

Getting ready to emerge over water. Looks good despite being over land all this time.

Coredesat · #96 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:24 am

Gone from NRL.

Coredesat · #97 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:25 am

Low-level circulation center remains totally exposed due to shear:

Nevertheless, Reunion is forecasting it to become a tropical storm again:

WTIO30 FMEE 030641

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/03 AT 0600 UTC :
22.5S / 40.8E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 23.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 24.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 24.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 24.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 25.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/01/06 06 UTC: 26.3S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-
THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A
RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
ELNUS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
A DECREASING WINDSHEAR TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY.
BEYOND, LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES, THE FIRST SHIFTING
EASTWARDS AND THE OTHER REBUILDING IN THE WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

#98 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:11 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:29 pm CST [6:59 pm WDT] Thursday 3 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell
Plateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Daly River
Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
135 kilometres north of Wyndham and
385 kilometres west southwest of Darwin and
moving southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is slow moving and may develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE tonight or
tomorrow morning, before moving eastward toward the Top End of the Northern
Territory.

GALES could affect coastal and island communities between Mitchell Plateau in
Western Australia and Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory tonight or
early Friday morning.

If the system were to take a more northeast track, there is the possibility that
GALES could affect coastal and island communities between Daly River Mouth and
Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands late on Friday or on
Saturday.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region tonight
and tomorrow.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.3 degrees South 127.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Thursday 03
January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#99 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:32 am

#100 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:36 am

Not looking too good.

Timor Sea: Invest 90P

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