TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Large arctic cold dome in control of much of the nation with insanely high pressures being felt at the surface. At 1000am pressure was 30.92 in and still rising at IAH and 30.97 in and rising at Caldwell…highest found was an astounding 31.01 in at Fort Worth and still rising, center of massive 1050mb+ high is over OK and shifting ever so slowing eastward. Pressure decreases have been noted over W TX…so the high axis should be right overhead tonight. Along with the incredible high pressures surface dewpoints have tanked into the teens after some recovery after hitting 9 at IAH last evening. Given good mixing in progress expect dewpoint to once again drop into the 1’s this afternoon. Given gusty winds and virtually no moisture at all…the fire danger is elevated since fuels are cured and ready to burn after multiple freezes. 400 grass fires burned yesterday across central TX and although conditions will be critical again today…the winds should really come down by this afternoon.

Main question is how low the temp. will go tonight? Dewpoints are commonly used to forecast low temps. as the air temp can drop to the dewpoint to result in 100% saturation of the surface air…and then they can continue to cool together at a much slower rate. Dewpoint forecasting is used only when skies are clear and winds nearly calm. Given massive high pressure cell nearly overhead by early this evening should result in winds going calm near sunset. Dewpoints in the 1’s and 10’s will begin to recover into the 20’s by late evening. Unlike last night when the winds stayed in the 5-10mph range expect conditions tonight to be ideal for maximum cooling. I am concerned with the very low dewpoints, however after reviewing the available guidance (NGM-26, ETA-25, GFS-29 for IAH tonight) will go with a blend of the GFS and ETA. GFS maintains stronger winds overnight in the 3-5mph range and I do not see this happening with surface high overhead..hence will shave 1-2 degrees off the GFS. Current dewpoints match well with guidance…but feel the air mass will dry this afternoon again and we will have to see how much dewpoints recover this evening. With all that said will go for 26-29 at IAH with 23-25 at Conroe and 27-29 at Sugarland, 25-27 at Victoria, and 24-26 at Wharton. Within Harris County expect freezing conditions all areas except immediate downtown and coastal bayfront. Outside the Beltway expect temps to fall into the upper 20’s with 30-32 inside the Beltway and 32-34 downtown. May see a few scattered upper teens NW around Brenham and NE around Livingston as winds went calm this morning at Brenham and the temp. bottomed out at 20. Duration below freezing will be 8-10 hours most areas with freezing temps. expected to onset by 900pm-1000pm.

[southerngale]

My low was 28° last night - have seen that several times this year already, so nothing unusual there, other than it was actually predicted this time. NWS wasn't 4 or 5 degrees too warm, like they have been in the past... dead on this time.
They have my low forecasted to be 20° tonight... seems a little too cold to believe. We'll see. With no central heat ATTM, I'll have the fireplace going early though.

[jasons2k]

Clouds from West TX are quickly streaming eastward. We just might not have a hard freeze after all. I think that 24F is a bit low.

[Diva]

I'm surprised that these breezy conditions have stuck around today. I was under the impression that they would've died down by now so the temps could drop to their forecasted lows for tonight.

[CaptinCrunch]

It was 22 this morning at the house, current temp as of 1:11pm @ (S) Arlington Airport is 39 with Sunny to partly sunny skies. tonight's low is forecasted to be in the upper teens to lower 20's.

[Yankeegirl]

when i got up this morning it was 31 here around 6:45 this morning... its cold!!

[Yankeegirl]

I just looked at the radar and its looks cool, i know there is no ice or snow, but there are little purple and blue ground clutter specs... It just goes to show you how dry the air really is!! ((right??)) If it keeps like this its going to get COLD tonight!!

[Dionne]

26F here at daylight........currently 35.2F at 210PM.....forecast is for 17F tonight.

Keep those faucets dripping to prevent yourself from calling someone like me tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

I just looked at the radar and its looks cool, i know there is no ice or snow, but there are little purple and blue ground clutter specs... It just goes to show you how dry the air really is!! ((right??)) If it keeps like this its going to get COLD tonight!!

It's perfect to starwatch.

[jasons2k]

NWS HGX has not backed-off of tonight's chilly forecast. We shall see with clouds moving-in:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CST WED JAN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IT`S A VERY COOL AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY CREEPING TOWARD 50 DEGREES AREAWIDE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST. SOME DEW
POINTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOST INLAND AREA TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT THINK THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL HAVE THAT MUCH AFFECT ON TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS. A GRADUAL WARM
UP BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COME BACK ON THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOW UP AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE STILL
IN STORE FOR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS A
WARM SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TUESDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 42

[Portastorm]

Don't you just love the GFS' 18z run? Each day it provides us with such weather drama. If I didn't know better, I'd say our friend EWG drew today's 18z GFS map, especially this one:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif

Gotta love it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't you just love the GFS' 18z run? Each day it provides us with such weather drama. If I didn't know better, I'd say our friend EWG drew today's 18z GFS map, especially this one:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif

Gotta love it!

It hasn't just been the 18z run. The past few runs of the GFS have been showing some wintery weather. Over at another source, wxman57 even mentioned that the setup could be better for an arctic airmass into Texas later this month...and we all know that when he is onto something, that we need to take notice. I still do not buy into any winter precipitation though until I see it a little closer than the 264-288 range. Once it gets into the <180 hour timeframe, then I might begin to take more notice. Definitely something to watch though!

BTW, here is a look at the past four GFS runs...

18z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif

12z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

06z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

00z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

...Overall, I would actually say that the GFS is one of the wetter runs, but also one of the warmer ones (though still very cold).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight will definitely be interesting. On one hand, we are already down into the middle 40s (so it will not take that much of a drop to get us to freezing), dewpoints are in the teens, and winds are expected to die down. All those factors yell, "HARD FREEZE!". On the other hand though, we have the cirrus moving overhead, which could be a problem in cooling us rapidly. I do notice a break in the cirrus to our west on the satellite loop, and once that reaches us we could easily experience a rapid temperature drop. The question though is how much cirrus builds back in beyond this break? The answer to that question could mean all the difference in tomorrow morning's readings.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IAH and Hooks are already down to 42F and I am sitting at 41.2F <<As of 6pm.

It definitely will not take much to cool us off into the 30s and then to near freezing.

[pwrdog]

I'm at 34.6 at 6:30 pm about 50 miles nne of IAH... Dew point of 9 and winds dead calm with clear skies..

It was 43 at 5pm... That's about 9 F drop in 1.5 hours... Should be below freezing by 8 pm... 12+ hour freeze...

Here is a tidbit from Dallas NWS..

EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES WERE RECORDED TODAY. THE
ALTIMETER AT DFW AIRPORT REACHED 30.97 INCHES AT 1115 AM CST.
(THE RECORD HIGHEST PRESSURE FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH IS 31.06
INCHES...SET ON DECEMBER 24 1983.) THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RECORDED
IN NORTH TEXAS TODAY WAS 31.03 INCHES AT COLLIN COUNTY REGIONAL
AIRPORT (MCKINNEY).

WACO PLUMMETED TO 17. GRAHAM WAS THE COLDEST AIRPORT SITE DROPPING TO
12 DEGREES THIS MORNING IN THE DALLAS FA. THE LOWEST COOPERATIVE SITE WAS ALVORD (PRONOUNCED AL-VOID) IN WISE COUNTY...WHICH FELL TO 11 DEGREES.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, skies are clearing here too and winds are going calm. My temperature is now down to 37.9F here in Spring. Considering it is not yet even 7pm, I think I could easily break the 25 degree mark overnight (assuming we do not see a significant cloud deck build in and stick around). Definitely going to be a cold one!

[PineyWoods]

A little north of some of you, here in East Texas we're at 32° at 7pm and the high clouds we had around for about 3 hours have cleared out now. With dewpoint of 11° and a calm wind looks like we will drop into the low 20's, unless more clouds move back in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

7pm Houston-area temperatures...

IAH - 40F
Hooks - 37F
Conroe - 36F
Hobby - 43F
Sugar Land - 39F

Even the big airport, IAH, is now only 8 degrees away from the freezing point.

[pwrdog]

31.7 AT 7:45 PM DEW POINT UP TO 15 F... Near Lake Livingston...

[Extremeweatherguy]

8pm Houston-area temperatures...

IAH - 39F
Hooks - 38F (went up a degree for some odd reason)
Conroe - 32F
Hobby - 42F
Sugar Land - 37F

My thermometer - 33.8F