TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Portastorm]

Alright Lucy ... tee up the football, Portastorm is lacing up his cleats!

The 12z GFS is run is colder than the 6z and 0z and still suggests some wintry precip in the 9-11 day range:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp204240_l.shtml

[gboudx]

Porta, you must have a good chiropractor from all those times you wind up flat on your back.

[jasons2k]

Porta, you must have a good chiropractor from all those times you wind up flat on your back.

By the end of January, he and EWG will both be in full body casts

[Portastorm]

Y'all are hilarious!

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&p=1678518#p1678518

[southerngale]

Currently at 25 degrees at 6:00 am. I hope southerngale is finding a way to stay warm without central heat!

Bbbbbbrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Thanks. Actually, not horrible since I stayed up so late keeping the fireplace going. I'm quite sleepy! Plenty of covers and warm jammies, along with the portable heaters, and we survived! lol

The low was 24 at the closest weather station to me, and 25 at the nearby one that's south of me.



My dog wouldn't go outside all morning. I guess she didn't want to hold it anymore and finally asked to go out a few minutes ago. Her first stop was her water bowl on the porch, where she tried to take a drink, then looked up at me like "Wtfudge????" It was a solid brick of ice! She went to the woods to use the bathroom and came right back to the front door... it's still cold out there!!

[southerngale]

Alright Lucy ... tee up the football, Portastorm is lacing up his cleats!

The 12z GFS is run is colder than the 6z and 0z and still suggests some wintry precip in the 9-11 day range:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp204240_l.shtml

Nooooooooooo.... Oh dear, folks. I think we've lost Portastorm.

[vbhoutex]

OK, the holidays are over so this cold air can just go back up to Canada. I HATE cold weather!

Unless we have enough snow or freezing rain to cancel kid's school and my work.



Can you imagine the carnage of anyone silly enough to drive on the sky-high on/off ramps for Beltway 8 where it crosses major highways?

Hoooo-doggie!

Talk about gory images!!!!!! It is bad enough when they are just wet from rain!!!!

Several models apparently are beginning to show the probability of a pattern change(MacFarland Omega block??) that could lead to very cold(below freezing for 2-3 days in the SE TX area) weather for all of Texas with precipitation thrown in too. IFany of what the models are showing(and some have been for a few days)the precipitation amounts for some of Texas(especially NC and N)could be amounts that have not been seen for many years. As usual I am not about to ask the bank for a loan based on this or hold my breath, but it will be interesting to watch and see what happens.

Any way you look at it the weather for our area right now is what we consider !!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Mc Farland pattern? IF that doesn't start raising some eyes in the these parts, I don't know what would.

[JonathanBelles]

in simple terms, what is a Mcfarland Omega Block, and what effects does it have on different parts of the country?

[jeff]

Mc Farland is the author out of Texas A&M and relates 500mb features to arctic air outbreaks in TX and also in FL.

The keys features are as follows:

1. A short wave omega block superimposed on a long wave ridge through C Canada with a deep vortex over Hudson Bay.

2. A zonal trough axis over S Canada or the N US with zonal flow south of this axis and strong meridional flow north of the axis.

3. A closed low over NW Canada dropping due south and carving out a long wave trough without surface cyclogenesis...that is a key factor suggesting the brunt of the cold moves southward instead of eastward.

4. Retrogression of a full latitude trough over the W US with a closed low or major short wave moving southward without surface cyclone.

5. A high amplitude full latitude trough over the SE US with a closed low...most important for SE US and FL.

The study completed by Mc Farland suggests that the most severe arctic outbreaks and those that cause big problems in S TX are correlated to at least one of the 5 500 mb pattern listed above. Such patterns favor surface ridges over Alaska to build as they drop southward. An example shows a 1035mb ridge building to 1060mb+ as it moves from Alaska to MT in 1962 which led to 10 degrees in the lower S TX valley.

The first indicators are a well defined high latitude short wave blocking...suggesting an arcitc outbreak into the US is highly likely. Additionally, a southward moving short wave or closed low almost always supports a cold air mass at the surface.

[JonathanBelles]

Is there an educational video/animation example of that? Sorry, In this case that didnt make much sense to me. Im a visual person in this case.

[jasons2k]

Just imagine a giant Omega-shaped upper flow parked over the CONUS with frigid air dumping right down the center of it.

Here is a full analysis:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[southerngale]

Let me know when/if I should pay closer attention to the Omega stuff. I have "The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh" going round and round in my head at the moment.

As far as today goes, my forecasted high was 47... we've hit 43 and gone back down to 42 a few times. It just dropped again from 43 to 42... not sure we're going to make it to 47 today.


Edit: The high at the airport is only 43 so far as well... it's usually a good bit warmer down there.

Another freeze is forecast for me tonight, but only a balmy 32 forecast for tonight.

Another edit: I guess they raised my high from 47 to 49 sometime earlier and I just now noticed. hmmm... don't see it happening. We'll see though... a few more hours of sunshine.

[jasons2k]

You don't see this every day in Texas:

This Afternoon: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Calm wind.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind.

Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 0.

Obviously, someone hit a wrong key or something:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=175

[HURAKAN]

That's funny. You don't see that everyday!!!

[Brent]

You don't see this every day in Texas:

This Afternoon: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Calm wind.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind.

Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0. Calm wind.

Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 0.

Obviously, someone hit a wrong key or something:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=175

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where's EWG? He would be having a heart attack.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I would be having a heart attack. I mean I like the cold, but I don't like it that much. Highs near zero would be a bit too brutal for me!

[southerngale]

Well, that 49 high never materialized. It never got past 43 and was only there briefly a few times. It stayed at 42 during the "heat" of the afternoon. lol
It's already back down to 39 (even down at the airport) and it's still daylight.

Brrrr... my toes are looking forward to spring. If I can get some snow though, my toes will just have to get used to the cold.

[southerngale]

And less than an hour later it was already 33 at the airport! The weather stations in the Golden Triangle (Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area) are already reporting 33 - 37 degrees.
I'm between a 36 and 35 report.

http://www.kfdm.com/sections/weather/instaweather/

Scroll down to where it says, "Show a list of all stations within the KFDM coverage area" and click on that.

Brrr!