TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Extremeweatherguy]

temperatures already down to 37F here this evening with some clouds. The forecast for tonight is 34F, but considering I am already within 3 degrees of that, I will assume that the current forecasted low is a tad high. It looks likely that I will probably be waking to yet another freeze tomorrow morning here in northern Harris county (though likely not as extreme as the 25-26F I saw last night). If I do in fact manage to hit 30-32F, then this will be my third consecutive night of freezing weather.

BTW - Bush Intercontinental is ALREADY down to 36F. That means that they have officially broken their forecast low for tonight (37F) by one degree...and it is only 7pm. lol.

[southerngale]

My low for tonight is 32. At nearly 9pm, it's currently 31.

Link is in previous post... I live between Field ES and Lumberton Intermediate... probably slightly closer to the latter. Another nearby personal weather station (on Wunderground) shows 31 as well.

I wonder if it will start to rise later as everything shifts east.


Edit: Since our high was forecasted to be 49 today and we only hit 43 briefly a few times for a high, would that have an effect on why the temp dropped so fast this evening? I wondered this afternoon if it would be colder than forecast because of that, but I wasn't really sure if it would make a difference. I figure it has less to fall from, but with dewpoints in the mid-20's, it might not get below a certain temp no matter where it started from. Met? Knowledgeable amateur?
Also, just because it dropped quickly, I realize it may not drop anymore, or very much.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is down to 33F at IAH (as of 11pm). Surprisingly though, I am actually warmer than IAH this evening. My temperature is currently 35.1F. A warmer temperature at my location than at IAH is a rare sight.

[CaptinCrunch]

The 70's are coming,.....

NWS FTW TX 01-04-08 AFD

LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POWERFUL TROUGH CURRENTLY
COMING ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST. MODELS ARE STILL DOING A POOR
JOB OF FORECASTING THIS EVENT...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FASTER
THAN THE GFS AND SHOWING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. THE GFS ALSO
HINTS AT THIS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF
SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. FROPA WILL OCCUR SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL
LINE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAMPERED BY TIME OF DAY AND CLOUDS...
BUT SUFFICIENT MUCAPES EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

[jasons2k]

I didn't check the thermometer, but the weather stations near me were 34F for lows which occured around midnight, then temps slowly rose after that. BTW this expected rise was in the evening AFD issued by the NWS so there was really no scare of another freeze.

[Portastorm]

In case anyone besides me and EWG are wondering about next weekend, the 0z GFS run looked a little different this morning and showed the development of a cutoff low near the Big Bend of Texas which would be a precipitation-producer but seemed to hold off the coldest air. That scenario is much different than what the model was projecting the last few days. However, the 12z run is back to what we saw over the last few days ... a very large and cold trough moving west to east across the nation, bringing very cold air to Texas. The precip possibilities aren't all that impressive though. Also, as the venerable Wxman57 pointed out on another board, the upper flow doesn't appear all that impressive for a major-league cold dump.

Watch and wait, right?!

[southerngale]

Well, it never got any lower than 31... where I was when I posted at 9pm last night. From what I can tell, it mostly fluctuated between 31 and 32 overnight, then eventually rising to 34 about 6am. Right now, it's a balmy 56 - ooh... beach weather.

I'm looking forward to warmer weather. Bring back the bitter cold when snow comes with it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 32F last night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not looking as interesting as it did a few days ago...
Snippet from CRP AFD


.

LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT. LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
SCENARIO WITH WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PRIOR TO
FROPA MONDAY NIGHT A BIT TOO FAR NORTH (LAST WEEKS GFS HAD THIS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD)...THEN MAINLY DRYING OUT WITH
SOME MINOR MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. CONSIDERING MODEL SHOWING MID LEVEL THETA-E DRYING PRIOR TO
FRONT AND 850MB WINDS WESTERLY BEFORE IT...WILL ONLY MENTION POPS
WITH FRONT GULFMEX AND NORTHEAST AS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A DRY
SCENARIO UNTIL A BETTER RAIN SCENARIO DEVELOPS. PRIOR TO FROPA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME/NEAR SCA FOR THE MARINE INTERESTS.
SEA FOG ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. GOOD DRYING EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT NOW AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN BELIEVED
EARLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT GOOD MOISTURE
LIKELY NOT TO BE BACK BY THEN SO GENERALLY KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT IN
THE GULFMEX FOR NOW (WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY ARE NEEDED).
GFS SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND GFS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC IN MOISTURE RETURN SO FEEL
NO RAIN FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS STILL THE BEST WAY TO GO. BASED ON
LESS MOISTURE...ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD TO FIT
MORE IN LINE WITH MOS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. CONCERNING THE BIG
WINTER SCENARIO AFTER A WEEK FROM SUNDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER EXTENT
ECMWF BACKING OFF SOME. WE SHALL SEE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I enjoy over the top day 13 model runs that show snow in SE Texas. I do recall, back when I used to loop my AccuWx PPV GFS 384 hour snow cover maps how excited I'd get, even though they were never right, when the GFS would snow on Houston.


And, I may add, about 10 days out, several GFS runs did pick up the South Texas Christmas Eve 2004 Miracle...

[Portastorm]

Taking a look at the 12z GFS run from today for next weekend, at 174 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_174.shtml

You can see why pro mets are skeptical of any significant wintry weather impacting Texas say, oh south of I-20. Check out the upper level flow at 200 mb and 500 mb. This is not a flow pattern that would bring Arctic air down to Texas! And yes, that's only a 1030 mb high coming down the Rockies ... nothing to get too excited about.

This is what the GFS has been trending the last few runs and is closer to the Euro scenario.

Portastorm to Lucy: "Lucy, I'm taking off my cleats and don't want to go outside. No football today for me!"

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt we will see any kind of extreme cold or winter precipitation next weekend, but there definitely is potential for a chilly and wet scenario here in SE Texas.

The latest GFS MOS is calling for a 30-50% chance of rain coupled with a high of just 56F on Saturday afternoon and a low of 36F Sunday morning at IAH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did I see EWG saying he is moving to America's Hurricane Capital, Florida, then on to America's Tornado Capital, Oklahoma?


That is so awesome. Now, I can't think of a better place for overall living than SE Texas, but for an extreme weather fanatic, EWG must be estatic.


BTW, I'd stay in Florida. They get the occasional tornado outbreak, and excluding flood producing systems long inland, like T.S. Erin, Oklahoma doesn't get tropical cyclones.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Did I see EWG saying he is moving to America's Hurricane Capital, Florida, then on to America's Tornado Capital, Oklahoma?


That is so awesome. Now, I can't think of a better place for overall living than SE Texas, but for an extreme weather fanatic, EWG must be estatic.


BTW, I'd stay in Florida. They get the occasional tornado outbreak, and excluding flood producing systems long inland, like T.S. Erin, Oklahoma doesn't get tropical cyclones.

Yes, that is correct. I will only be in Florida a short period though (likely just a couple of months), and then onto Oklahoma by autumn. Definitely two great places to be for an extreme weather fanatic! I will go from a great tropical location for the beginning part of this hurricane season and then up to a great severe/winter weather location after that. One thing I am really looking forward to is seeing some snow again (without having to travel to it) up in Oklahoma. I haven't lived somewhere that regularly receives snow since moving from Raleigh, NC about 7-8 years ago, so it should be quite interesting to return to the kind of atmosphere where I do not always have to hope for some actual winter weather. lol. The one thing that will really be a change for me though is the tornado threat. Most of the locations I have lived only face a risk of mainly weak tornadoes. Up there though, it is a whole different ball game! The idea of having to face a potential strong (EF3+) tornado is a little nerve-wracking, but hopefully I will not have any problems with that (knock on wood). Overall, weather-wise, I should definitely be looking at an interesting time ahead, and the idea of possibly seeing some decent weather events will certainly help to take the edge off of some of the stress I will encounter during this upcoming period of moving all over the place.

[southerngale]

From the "Record Highs" thread in USA Weather...

Record Highs Sat Jan 5 2008 (PRELIM)

Dickinson ND 53F
East Rapid City SD 60F
Joplin MO 71F
McAlester OK 72F tied 1989
Oklahoma City OK 72F
Austin Bergstrom TX 78F tied 2007
Waco TX 79F tied 1989
Wichita Falls TX 82F

-justin-

Amazing how yesterday morning, it was below freezing here and the day before it was 24 degrees... and today parts of Texas north of here are setting record highs... *shakes head*

[ETXHAMXYL]

This evening I saw two DFW TV weather guys say that next Monday has possible cold temps but also a chance for some winter precipt. Channel 21 and 8 both said to keep your eyes out for lower temps by next Sunday in the 40's and then Monday and Tuesday for a winter mx maybe.
Also the FTW nws mentioned it in the last update but didn't want to put anything into stone just yet this far out. MMMM Lucy trying her old kick off stunt again? Boy once I'd like Charlie Brown to just kick a 100 yard field goal with cold and snow for a week. I am tired of this temp. rollercoaster we are on now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

EWG should check out the 216 hour 0Z GFS and book a hotel room in Dallas...

[gboudx]

This evening I saw two DFW TV weather guys say that next Monday has possible cold temps but also a chance for some winter precipt. Channel 21 and 8 both said to keep your eyes out for lower temps by next Sunday in the 40's and then Monday and Tuesday for a winter mx maybe.
Also the FTW nws mentioned it in the last update but didn't want to put anything into stone just yet this far out. MMMM Lucy trying her old kick off stunt again? Boy once I'd like Charlie Brown to just kick a 100 yard field goal with cold and snow for a week. I am tired of this temp. rollercoaster we are on now.

Was the Channel 8 met Steve McCauley?

[Portastorm]

The last few runs of the GFS (0z and 6z) as well as the 0z Euro suggest a weaker penetration of Canadian air (this will NOT be an Arctic outbreak!) this coming weekend and perhaps stronger cold air advection come early the following week (Jan. 15-16).

The way things look right now, I wouldn't get too excited about any frozen precip chances unless you live north of I-20.

For those of us in central, south, and southeast Texas ... looks like this change will bring us weather similar to what we had this past week (temps perhaps 10 degrees below normal to near normal).

I have to say that yesterday here in Austin was just wonderful! Sunny, blue skies ... a nice breeze from time to time ... and a high of 78 degrees.

[ETXHAMXYL]

One young met on channel 21 said that that next weekend would be in the 40's and looks very interesting for some winter wx. on Monday and Tuesday. He had the high on Sunday in at 40.
Steve McCauley...yes he's the one that just jumps at the least little hint...Had the high on Sunday about 54 but said to Watch out for Monday and Tuesday of next week for winter wx event possible. Isn't next Monday and Tuesday the 14th & 15th? Read many other boards starting to chat up a mid.Jan. cold spell with frozen stuff so who knows maybe it will happen, but not holding my breath.