-Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

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Re: -Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

#301 Postby Category 5 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 7:55 am

From NWS Springfield.

Image
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#302 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 7:59 am

There were probably more tornado tracks than that...
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Re: -Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

#303 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:21 am

Category 5 wrote:OMG

THAT far into the night in JANUARY????????????????? :eek: :eek: :eek:


Yep. The last warnings expired at around 5 AM local time.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KSGF/wfus53.chunk.html
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#304 Postby HarlequinBoy » Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:40 am

Springfield got that graphic out pretty fast!


Anyways, thoughts on today? Only 2% hatch..
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Re: -Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

#305 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:01 am

Here we go again???

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081318Z - 081515Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITHIN BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL
BANDS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS
IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW TONGUE OF WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...LIKELY SUPPORTED BY BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET AXIS.

THE STRONGER CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE
THAT MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE.
AND...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL REMAIN WEAK
FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...UNTIL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME IS UNCLEAR.

SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY IS INDICATIVE THAT WARM LAYERS
IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE ARE SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.
BUT...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASING TRENDS.
AND...ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
COULD SUPPORT ROOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF ACTIVITY PERSISTS/
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...IT WILL DO SO IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CONTINUING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 01/08/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

33609414 34139417 34769391 35429330 35989261 36169191
36159117 35889063 35179066 34199134 33499195 33199264
33209342
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Re:

#306 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:02 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:Springfield got that graphic out pretty fast!


Anyways, thoughts on today? Only 2% hatch..


Very conservative forecast...I'd say 10% is more like it (although still SLGT at this point).
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#307 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:20 am

Must be predicting more squall lines and less supercells.
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Re:

#308 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:22 am

RL3AO wrote:Must be predicting more squall lines and less supercells.


That isn't what seems to be happening though...notice they used words in the MD that are not normally used on only a 2% tornado threat...it will probably be increased at 1630Z.
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#309 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:32 am

It will probably be bumped up at 1630.
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#310 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:43 am

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 081431
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

TORNADO WATCH 8 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-
045-049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-
091-093-095-099-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-
139-141-145-147-082200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.080108T1435Z-080108T2200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP
ST. FRANCIS STONE UNION
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF


KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-145-157-082200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.080108T1435Z-080108T2200Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
MARSHALL MCCRACKEN


MOC023-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-082200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.080108T1435Z-080108T2200Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD


MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-082200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.080108T1435Z-080108T2200Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA


TNC017-033-045-047-053-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
082200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.080108T1435Z-080108T2200Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY


ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SHV...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 8 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 081435Z - 082200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65ENE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 10SW ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /52SE FAM - 13SW ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

LAT...LON 37118775 33119138 33119450 37119101

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 8 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Re: -Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

#311 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:44 am

Has anyone heard anything from Garrett? He still lives in Monett.
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#312 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:44 am

Tornado watch already? That was fast! :eek:
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#313 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:47 am

Nice looking cell in Central Arkansas.

Image
Image
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#314 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:47 am

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
843 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARC029-115-141-081515-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080108T1515Z/
CONWAY AR-POPE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
843 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST FOR SOUTHERN
VAN BUREN...EAST CENTRAL POPE AND NORTHERN CONWAY COUNTIES...

AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JERUSALEM...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CLEVELAND...SCOTLAND AND CLINTON.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3537 9231 3536 9240 3538 9241 3538 9247
3535 9249 3534 9288 3544 9292 3562 9257
3567 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 248DEG 37KT 3543 9281

$$

44






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
ARC045-051-105-119-125-081515-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0002.080108T1443Z-080108T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
843 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 915 AM CST

* AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JESSIEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WYE MOUNTAIN AROUND 905 AM CST...
LAKE MAUMELLE AROUND 910 AM CST...
ROLAND AROUND 915 AM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3485 9305 3487 9287 3508 9258 3488 9246
3461 9299 3476 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 236DEG 45KT 3475 9293

$$
51
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#315 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:13 am

Nice looking (currently not severe) cell about 90 mi from Little Rock. Hopefully it doesn't turn tornadic.
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#316 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:04 am

Two new tornado reports, possible injuries:

1440 1 SE APPLETON POPE AR 3541 9285 TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND THERE WAS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES. THERE MAY BE INJURIES. THE DAMAGE WAS IN THE VICINITY OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAY 124 AND SIMBA (LZK)
1442 1 W JERUSALEM CONWAY AR 3540 9283 TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WERE REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAY 124 AND CEDAR CREEK ROAD. THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN THE SAME TORNADO THAT AFFECTED POPE CO (LZK)
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Re: -Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

#318 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:23 am



Some pretty solid rotation there...
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#319 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:25 am

Tornado risk shot up to 10%...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALREADY POWERFUL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...BROAD ZONE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...NOW ACROSS MO/IL...WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN WHILE
TRACKING NEWD TO LOWER MI THROUGH THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...AND INTO CNTRL KY/TN THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW ENTERING AR AND NERN TX...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO MS AND LA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING FRONT
IN THESE AREAS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH A FEW INTENSE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD/SEWD FROM ERN TX/AR ACROSS NRN LA AND
INTO MS/WRN TN IN THE COMING HOURS. GENERALLY WEAK /NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC/ LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH ACROSS
SOME OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MESOSCALE
ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL CIRCULATION...AND POTENT SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS/ AND POCKETS OF WEAK DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALSO LOCALLY
BOOST CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN A THREAT AS IT DEVELOPS EWD.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO BE AT ITS MOST
INTENSE LATE THIS MORNING WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND
APPROXIMATE CELL MOTION OF 30-40KT. FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR MAY
ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONGER MASS INFLOW BECOME REDIRECTED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE CYCLONE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS. HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN AR/WRN
TN/NRN LA...AND WRN MS SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FAST-MOVING
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN EVEN MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA FROM MO BOOTHEEL EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER TO
SRN IND AND KY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DECAYING WEAK MCS NOW ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO DEPART /WEAKEN FURTHER/ BEFORE THE MORE
INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS AND
SREF APPEAR TO INDICATE AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND SURGING COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN/KY AND SRN IL ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-TOPPED STORMS FORMING ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL RACE ENEWD AIDED BY STRENGTHENING 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM TN NEWD AND
EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..CARBIN.. 01/08/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1622Z (11:22AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#320 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:34 am

Lots of good radar images from the SE Wisconsin tornadoes.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=12112&source=0
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