![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/sh112008.gif)
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/MY/091321Z JAN 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.6S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.9S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.9S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.4S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 175.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. THESE FIXES
JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER
WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS WILL PREVENT ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF
TC 11P BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 091321Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 091330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.
![Image](http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/1KMSRVIS/2008SH11_1KMSRVIS_200801100230.GIF)
10/0252 UTC 21.9S 175.7W
T2.5/2.5 11P -- South Pacific Ocean
Pretty compact system.