Models showing storm soon in Atlantic?

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Evil Jeremy
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Models showing storm soon in Atlantic?

#1 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:23 am

This is my first time starting one of these kinds of topics, so tell me if I am doing anything wrong lol. Anyways, out of boredom, I decided to go to the CMC just to laugh at it again, but when I looked at this morning's run, it showed a storm forming later this week in the mid-Atlantic. Naturally, I was curious, so I checked some of the other models. The GFS also shows something forming and so does the NOGAPS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Am I posting junk, or can someone make something out of this?
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#2 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:12 am

Usually the Canadian is good just for laughs, although it since it develops every possible disturbance into a storm, it is sually the first to see an actual storm. And the 6Z GFS does support it.


Me, as a relative newbie, here maybe six months give or take, I'd just check later model runs, and, of course, check the satellite loop each day.


Nothing obvious yet, don't get all excited the way some do when the 264 hour GFS shows snow flurries at the house, and just keep an eye on it, and if something does develop, be sure to remind everyone you saw it first.
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#3 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:17 am

Well, the latest GFS shows something out there as early as within 72 hours!
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#4 Postby KWT » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:24 am

At this time of years its nearly certainly going to be a Baroclinic development though and not tropical.
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#5 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:35 am

Rule 1 of the tropics: Anything can happen.
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#6 Postby wyq614 » Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:59 am

它会在哪里出现?

Where will the storm occur?
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:22 pm

The 12z CMC,UKMET,GFS and NOGAPS show the same thing.Ummm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#8 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:49 pm

Ummm... cool. :eek:

More than likely extratropical development, but hey, it's La Nina so...
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#9 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jan 07, 2008 3:15 pm

I saw this first! Can this become our first tropical system of the year? In Janurary?!?!?!
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#10 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:58 pm

No, highly unlikely. Unlike most phantom lows the CMC is developing, this is a weak low it has forming. I wouldn't count on anything developing, especially with the winter zonal flow pattern fully established over the Atlantic.

Image
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#11 Postby curtadams » Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:28 pm

Cyclone phase diagrams predict it will be at least subtropical: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/60.html I wouldn't expect the NHS to name a storm matching the GFS or NOGAPS predictions though. They really drag their feet on these midocean storms and that looks too weak and shortlived to force their hand.
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#12 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Jan 08, 2008 7:59 am

CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET all showing something forming down there now.
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#13 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:43 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET all showing something forming down there now.


No, they aren't.

06Z GFS did not show anything developing in that region. Neither does the 00Z ECMWF.

00Z NOGAPS and CMC have a short-lived weak baroclinic system (based on the shape of the area of vorticity) becoming absorbed by a front in 84-120 hours (the 00Z NOGAPS actually forms the low at 84 hours and has it dissipating by 120 hours).

00Z CMC: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html
00Z NOGAPS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html
00Z ECMWF: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Not sure where you found your information, Jeremy, but the only model wanting to develop something now is the UKMO. Cyclone phase does say warm-core, but as a very shallow system (it would still be cold-core at the upper levels). If anything this would be subtropical, and even then, it's unlikely due to ridiculous shear over the area (by the time it subsides, there will probably be little left of the system) and the fact that the models are unanimous in having whatever's out there get absorbed by the front.

There are plenty of warm-cored lows out there, but they're not all (sub)tropical.
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#14 Postby Pedro Fernández » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:12 am

Yesterday, I saw GFS and UKM indicating "something" developing from one of the two areas of disturbed weather. Nevertheless, CIMSS wind-shear maps are indicating very high values of this parameter along most part of the Atlantic Basin...

Anyway, always keeping an eye on............................ :wink:
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:29 am

Image

There it is up there.I only see a 1% chance to become subtropical.
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#16 Postby GCANE » Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:57 am

26N 45W is showing some decent organization. Shear is high but dropping here. This may get interesting if shear continues to drop. CMC is forecasting a drop in shear west of here in 72 hours.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#17 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:35 pm

Like I said, the models do have shear dropping, but that's likely going to be the only favorable thing about the environment.
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Re: Models showing storm soon?

#18 Postby GCANE » Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:46 pm

Looks like a mid-level Low is starting to form.

Image
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#19 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:06 pm

Yeep. It's scary when this kind of thing happens. I think I actually might have to make up my MIND about what's going on here.

On the one hand, the system looks [sort of] decent. It hasn't dropped to the surface yet (not even close). Shear is predictable for this time of year. In November I might be a tiny bit excited. I don't see the water warm enough, of course, because it's JANUARY, but that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the other storms that form off season (though that logic is a bit facetious). I'd like to see it make it, and it certainly has the best chance of anything since 95L, but seeing as that didn't have much of a chance anyway, I'm going to have to say that I just don't see this storm making it.
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Re:

#20 Postby Pedro Fernández » Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:23 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:Yeep. It's scary when this kind of thing happens. I think I actually might have to make up my MIND about what's going on here.

On the one hand, the system looks [sort of] decent. It hasn't dropped to the surface yet (not even close). Shear is predictable for this time of year. In November I might be a tiny bit excited. I don't see the water warm enough, of course, because it's JANUARY, but that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the other storms that form off season (though that logic is a bit facetious). I'd like to see it make it, and it certainly has the best chance of anything since 95L, but seeing as that didn't have much of a chance anyway, I'm going to have to say that I just don't see this storm making it.


It is probably tropical systems which go out of the rules established by the scientists, are the origin of our great interest on them...

There is nothing more exciting than to monitor a hurricane out of season, or a tropical cyclone surprising the own NHC forecasters :lol:
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