TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG should check out the 216 hour 0Z GFS and book a hotel room in Dallas...

I probably will not need to. If the 18z GFS is correct, then I am in for a pretty decent snowstorm while I am in Atlanta next weekend. Yes, this is still really far out (and likely to change), but considering it is Atlanta, I figure that there has to be at least a slightly higher chance of it actually playing out up there as compared to here in Houston...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif

[ETXHAMXYL]

Forecast for early next week according to channel 21 and 11 out of the DFW area shows a cold 39 by Tuesday. Looks like we start a slow downward slide tomorrow in the 60's and continue to slide into the early week in the lower 30's for highs. They are not talking it up and no precip. except a slight chance on Sat. Hoping no rain or slippery footballs for the Cowboys on Sunday.
Tire of the 80's. My A/C is running in Jan bothers me.

[Portastorm]

I'm looking hard for any sign of wintry weather hope ... here is a brief glimmer, if I am understanding this correctly.

The 12z GFS run today at 174 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

Is that an overrunning pattern I see with surface temps near freezing in parts of Texas?

[jasons2k]

Hmm, could be.

Of note this winter is the lack of overunning precip. events in Texas. I've been wondering when we'd finally see this...

[vbhoutex]

I'm looking hard for any sign of wintry weather hope ... here is a brief glimmer, if I am understanding this correctly.

The 12z GFS run today at 174 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

Is that an overrunning pattern I see with surface temps near freezing in parts of Texas?

A very slight glimmer. I wouldn't call Lucy yet though.

[Portastorm]

I'm looking hard for any sign of wintry weather hope ... here is a brief glimmer, if I am understanding this correctly.

The 12z GFS run today at 174 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

Is that an overrunning pattern I see with surface temps near freezing in parts of Texas?

A very slight glimmer. I wouldn't call Lucy yet though.

Oh I know ... we're far from that stage right now! One thing though looks more and more likely based on all of the medium-to-long range modeling and that is a pattern change from the middle of January on ... the blow torch shouldn't be so pronounced and we'll be much closer to seasonal temps if not below from time to time.

[southerngale]

I'm looking hard for any sign of wintry weather hope ... here is a brief glimmer, if I am understanding this correctly.

The 12z GFS run today at 174 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

Is that an overrunning pattern I see with surface temps near freezing in parts of Texas?

A very slight glimmer. I wouldn't call Lucy yet though.

Oh I know ... we're far from that stage right now! One thing though looks more and more likely based on all of the medium-to-long range modeling and that is a pattern change from the middle of January on ... the blow torch shouldn't be so pronounced and we'll be much closer to seasonal temps if not below from time to time.

I hope so! When I was freezing, I was thinking, "Come on, spring!" Now I'm running around in shorts and flip-flops, sweating when I do work outside, thinking, "I want that cold back!" It shouldn't be this hot in January.

If only the pool water was warm enough... it'd be a nice swimming day here in Southeast Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

LOL....Yeah I HATE warm/hot weather in Jan-Feb.

But heres a bit of good news, it very much looks like a colder patteren taking shape that could carry on till months end. Forecasted highs over the coming week will continue it's downward trend with highs topping out in the mid to upper 40's by the end of the 7 day forecast. After that the cold trend continues with a possible strong arctic front by around the 21st, this coupled with an active storm track across the lower midwest will allow several waves of energy to cross Texas, the main issue will be moister suppy off the gulf. I do think some wintery precip will be instore by months end across parts of northern and central Texas.

Looking down the road to February, I see very cold at the start of the month followed by a rapid warm up to weather like we have seen the last few days, Mid Feb will be mild to say the least, but by months end our last true cold shot of the winter will bring about another chance of wintery precip that could include the first day or two of March before spring takes hold for the rest of the month.

[TxWxFrisco]

Holy Guacamole! I have found a forum for my North Texas weather nerdiness...lol Great to find a forum that talks about weather that is relevant to my area of the country! I lurk alot over at Eastern US Wx. forum and try to learn as much as possible but very little is discussed about our area of the world... Very cool indeed!

On to my reason for posting,

MCFARLAND PATTERN

NWS FW is hinting at a McFarland Pattern setup towards the middle of the month! If it pans out, HERE COMES WINTER!

000
FXUS64 KFWD 082047
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
247 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT NONE HAVE ANY GREAT PROMISE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THURSDAYS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS...AND SATURDAYS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AS AN
INVERT TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE UPPER 500MB TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND OVER THE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTY. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE GFS & GFS ENSEMBLES OF A MCFARLAND
PATTERN SETUP FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
DELAYS THIS EVENT UNTIL AFTER MID MONTH.


TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER PRODUCING A SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ONE HALF. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
REST OF NORTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE DANGER OF GRASS FIRES
GOING FOR SOME TIME.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS COLD DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT
CLEAR OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A COLD START TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WARMING INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL READING THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. 75

[Portastorm]

First of all TxWxFrisco, welcome to S2K! It is great to have you on the board.

Secondly and more to the point ... when you mention those two words: "McFarland Pattern," you'll get folks attention in south Texas and on this board. I did see some hints of that this morning when I perused the GFS ensembles and (earlier this PM) today's 12z Euro. However, I'll caution you that the models suggested something along these lines last week and they eventually lost that signature.

I think this afternoon's forecast discussion out of Norman, OK, captures it well in saying: "GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
LIKELY TO CARVE A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES...BRINGING WHATEVER COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE IN CANADA. PRIOR TO
THIS TRANSITION...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR ANY ARCTIC
AIR TO BUILD...SUGGESTING THE COOLER PATTERN MAY JUST KNOCK US DOWN
TO NORMAL RATHER THAN BELOW NORMAL. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS THE 12Z ECMWF CAME BACK IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN."

But as I have already written, I feel confident that the pattern overall is slowly changing and this ridiculous warmth will end for us. Whether or not we end up having some wintry weather later this month ... well ... that's the stuff this board is made of!

[TxWxFrisco]

Thanks for the welcome portastorm!

One thing I have learned over the years is that models change 4 times a day...lol

I only posted the AFD because the FW office is usually pretty conservative about mentioning these types of events... With that being said, you are absolutely correct in that we have seen a week or two of model runs that are on again off again with the cold getting down here to us in Texas...

The cold is reloading in Alaska and it will eventually come south. As to where it lands is anyones guess at the moment... With no cross polar flow, that is our only source of cold air at the moment...

Anyways, thanks for the welcome and I look forward to the interesting discussions...

[southerngale]

Welcome to Storm2k, TxWxFrisco. It's great to have another Texan on here!

[Portastorm]

Interesting little snippet from NWS Lubbock's afternoon forecast discussion:

"LONG RANGE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD SURGE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS HOLDS UP...WE COULD SEE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED."

[jasons2k]

TxWxFrisco - welcome to the board! I am an ex-Frisco resident myself. Back when I was in High School (early 90's), 121 was a 2-lane blacktop road from McKinney all the way to Grapevine and Preston was the same way all the way through Frisco. Come to think of it, west Plano was still all farmland as the Tollway ended at Frankford - can you imagine that??

Anyway - you will find some people here will drool over the mere mention of McFarland and others (like me) will cringe. Time will tell...

Have a good one and welcome to S2K!!

[gboudx]

Anyway - you will find some people here will drool over the mere mention of McFarland and others (like me) will cringe.

I do both. Drool if there's snow involved; cringe if it's ice.

[TxWxFrisco]

Lol,

Thanks for the welcome folks!

jasons,

I actually looked at moving to Frisco back in the early 90's when it was much as you described... Heck, 6 years ago when I moved here it was about half the size that it is today. (Population and coverage wise...) It is quickly becoming a bit to much for my taste but it seems where ever you go up in these parts it is growing rapidly.

I'm right there with ya gboudx... I hate the ice but bring on the snow!

[amawea]

Welcome aboard TxWxFrisco. I have one request. Get rid of that flying pig. LoL!

[vbhoutex]

Welcome to our weather home TxWxFrisco!!

Maybe since we have had McFarland Pattern change mentioned twice we can get one more mention and it will be the charm??? Life should be so easy!!!!

We are seeing the same thing in the models at this time to suggest that indeed we may need to take a watch mode for next week into the end of the month.I've actually seen suggestions of below freezing weather for SE TX that lasts more than 24 hours. As I always say though, I will believe it when I see it.

[TxWxFrisco]

amawea,

Ok, I got rid of the flying pig... jasons has my next best avatar so I went with my MLS soccer team FC Dallas! (Hope your not a Dynamo fan...! j/k )

Thanks for the welcome vbhoutex! Hint, hint, nudge, nudge... (Python reference...) thats all the models have for us right now and it seems to vacilate every other run...

Like you, I will believe it when I see it. As progressive as the pattern has been this fall and winter, any long term blocking that would allow for a good set up is hard to imagine... Only time will tell!

[Portastorm]

A morning perusal of the 0z and 6z GFS and the 0z Euro and 0z Canadian ... all I can say is that the GFS is widely variable on what will happen next week and beyond. I don't have much confidence in its runs. Both the Euro and Canadian show a ridge building north from the NW Pacific by the middle of next week. Perhaps that will signal a cold air dump by the following weekend. Who knows at this point.

BTW, I don't know if this link below will work or not (hopefully it does): check this out. It's from the Accuweather site and is based on the computer numbers from the 6z GFS. Snow for Austin!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/forecast3.as ... 1&metric=0