Hurricane Season 1950

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just because Joe Bastardi predicted the warm weather in the East about a month ago, and has been talking about the Winter 49-50 season as an analogue.

Cat 3 Hurricane King, per Wiki, hit Miami, and per Wiki, it was a very active season

[Blown Away]

Don't forget the monster 1949 PBC cane.

[Frank2]

Yes, but, per the tracking chart, lots of recurves, too...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes, but, per the tracking chart, lots of recurves, too...

But a couple of Florida hits, and Texas was totally off the hook. And any year with a Cat 3 in Miami, even if a bunch recurve, would be a huge year at Storm2K.


Just sayin', so far, Joe Bastardi's 1949-1950 analog has been doing fairly well, although I recall that winter Houston didn't have a freeze and we've already had two freezes this winter.

[KWT]

I recall Derek once saying that the strength of some of the hurricanes that season have been over-estimated and that when the season is looked at again we will see a lot of systems be weakened...depsite that it was very active season still and the ACE reflects that, even if changes do occur I'd guess it'll still be in the top 10 most active seasons.

[HurricaneRobert]

Yes, but, per the tracking chart, lots of recurves, too...

But a couple of Florida hits, and Texas was totally off the hook. And any year with a Cat 3 in Miami, even if a bunch recurve, would be a huge year at Storm2K.

One of them was named 'Easy' and another was 'Love'. I'm sure that was a relief.

[Ptarmigan]

1950 had 13/11/8. It also had a high ACE, which shows number of storms isn't everything. And yeah, I think Hurricane Dog was not 185 mph, but more likely 165 mph at most. Somehow if we saw satellite images of Dog, it would remind me of Hurricane Isabel of 2003. In October of 1949, SE Texas was hit by a major hurricane with 135 mph winds and dumped heavy rain.

[MiamiensisWx]

The vast majority of 1950's tropical cyclones were likely overestimated. Personally, I doubt Dog even exceeded ~115 kts, especially because of its high latitude. I think King and Easy will probably stand the test of reanalysis, although King has a better chance to maintain its Category 3 designation in Florida. Its 955 mb central pressure in Miami was well documented, and most information indicates that this compact storm intensified rapidly prior to landfall. I think King was a solid Category 3 over land, probably near ~100 kts.

[CrazyC83]

The vast majority of 1950's tropical cyclones were likely overestimated. Personally, I doubt Dog even exceeded ~115 kts, especially because of its high latitude. I think King and Easy will probably stand the test of reanalysis, although King has a better chance to maintain its Category 3 designation in Florida. Its 955 mb central pressure in Miami was well documented, and most information indicates that this compact storm intensified rapidly prior to landfall. I think King was a solid Category 3 over land, probably near ~100 kts.

Also that 13 is probably a very low estimate for the number of tropical storms, I think it was more like 19 (with the rest out at sea).

I agree, Dog seems weird at 160 kt so far out, the only way that would be possible IMO is if it went annular while already a Cat 5. If it had that intensity out there it would probably have had a pressure around 904mb. I certainly wouldn't rule out it being a Cat 5 (it was not far from where Isabel reached such), but to go that intense seems far-fetched. If it maintained Cat 5 until 30°N, it was almost certainly an annular hurricane.

BTW, the only other listed Category 5 hurricanes in the open Atlantic (i.e. not in the Caribbean or Gulf and east of 70°W) were Easy (1951), Cleo (1958), Donna, Hugo and Isabel. There may have been a few others though, but not many - the only potential candidates IMO are Carol (1953), Carrie (1957) and Esther (1961).

[Ed Mahmoud]

The vast majority of 1950's tropical cyclones were likely overestimated. Personally, I doubt Dog even exceeded ~115 kts, especially because of its high latitude. I think King and Easy will probably stand the test of reanalysis, although King has a better chance to maintain its Category 3 designation in Florida. Its 955 mb central pressure in Miami was well documented, and most information indicates that this compact storm intensified rapidly prior to landfall. I think King was a solid Category 3 over land, probably near ~100 kts.

Also that 13 is probably a very low estimate for the number of tropical storms, I think it was more like 19 (with the rest out at sea).

I agree, Dog seems weird at 160 kt so far out, the only way that would be possible IMO is if it went annular while already a Cat 5. If it had that intensity out there it would probably have had a pressure around 904mb. I certainly wouldn't rule out it being a Cat 5 (it was not far from where Isabel reached such), but to go that intense seems far-fetched. If it maintained Cat 5 until 30°N, it was almost certainly an annular hurricane.

BTW, the only other listed Category 5 hurricanes in the open Atlantic (i.e. not in the Caribbean or Gulf and east of 70°W) were Easy (1951), Cleo (1958), Donna, Hugo and Isabel. There may have been a few others though, but not many - the only potential candidates IMO are Carol (1953), Carrie (1957) and Esther (1961).

Per Wiki, Dog was measured as a Cat 5 by aircraft recon, although the Wiki article notes that aircraft recon was new then.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Grady Norton's 1950 season post-mortem (pdf of an old document)



I noticed there is another thread about long cold cycle ENSO events (I'd write out the popular name but the standard "&ntilde' doesn't make an enya) and active hurricane seasons that occur during/shortly after.


Interesting stuff.

[Cryomaniac]

Grady Norton's 1950 season post-mortem (pdf of an old document)



I noticed there is another thread about long cold cycle ENSO events (I'd write out the popular name but the standard "&ntilde' doesn't make an enya) and active hurricane seasons that occur during/shortly after.


Interesting stuff.

You can get a ñ from the character map. =)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Grady Norton's 1950 season post-mortem (pdf of an old document)



I noticed there is another thread about long cold cycle ENSO events (I'd write out the popular name but the standard "&ntilde' doesn't make an enya) and active hurricane seasons that occur during/shortly after.


Interesting stuff.

You can get a ñ from the character map. =)

Where is this character map?

And it still sounds like a lot of work.

[CrazyC83]

Could Dog's 160 kt winds have been flight-level? Although that would still support 140-145 kt winds...