Tornado Outbreak - Southeast, January 10-11
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Tornado Outbreak - Southeast, January 10-11
The SPC seems to think the potential is there for more severe weather from an unrelated system (although the close proximity may warrant calling this a tornado outbreak sequence). Only a SLGT now, but this time of year is very unpredictable.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:07 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38087
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: More severe weather? January 10-12, Southeast
Looks like a busy day around here tomorrow...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: More severe weather? January 10-12, Southeast
18Z WRF shows enough instability, deep layer shear and low level shear.
Looking around the 12Z forecast meteograms, I think fewer supercells and tornadoes, more lines and wind damage. Still, 2 severe weather events a couple of days apart in January is unusual
Looking around the 12Z forecast meteograms, I think fewer supercells and tornadoes, more lines and wind damage. Still, 2 severe weather events a couple of days apart in January is unusual
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MississippiHurricane
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- Posts: 648
- Age: 40
- Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:20 am
- Location: Hanover, Maryland
- Contact:
Re: More severe weather? January 10-12, Southeast
Tomorrow looks bad............Moderate risk for Strong/Violent Tornadoes large hail > 1.75 inches damaging winds all possible
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/HWO.php
Click on the underlined items and note the color code (BTW i love this product)
And here is the text version:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook
Even the wording at the bottom WILL BE NEEDED is very strong language.
With all this said..........you guys PLEASE be careful and keep an eye out on the weather and have those weather radios on and if you dont have one go GET one ASAP
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/HWO.php
Click on the underlined items and note the color code (BTW i love this product)
And here is the text version:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook
Even the wording at the bottom WILL BE NEEDED is very strong language.
With all this said..........you guys PLEASE be careful and keep an eye out on the weather and have those weather radios on and if you dont have one go GET one ASAP
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: More severe weather? January 10-12, Southeast
Hmmm, new 0Z WRF suggests nasty weather may start around lunch time. Looking around Natchez, not super high CAPE, but plenty of shear.
A little later, mid to late afternoon, around MEI, sounding has some potential for tornadoes...
A little later, mid to late afternoon, around MEI, sounding has some potential for tornadoes...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Upgrade to moderate possibility mentioned by the SPC...
SPC AC 101215
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND TN VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
AR/MO/IL. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER EASTERN KS IS 2-3MB DEEPER THAN
PROGD BY NAM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY TODAY...
HELPING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION
TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NORTHWEST LA INTO WESTERN TN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IN REGION OF
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER CORES COULD
PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS...WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY LATE MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INGEST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS REGION /3KM HELICITY OF 250-350
M2/S2/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...IF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK COULD BE REQUIRED
DUE TO STRONG NATURE OF THE SHEAR PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MS INTO AL AND FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
EVENING/NIGHT.
...TN/KY...
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN FARTHER
SOUTH. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS APPARENT WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO KY TODAY...BUT
DEGREE OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THAT FAR NORTH IS UNCLEAR.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50-65 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB
AND 3KM HELICITY OF 300+ MS/S2/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME ORGANIZED.
..HART.. 01/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1244Z (7:44AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 101215
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND TN VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
AR/MO/IL. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER EASTERN KS IS 2-3MB DEEPER THAN
PROGD BY NAM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY TODAY...
HELPING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION
TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NORTHWEST LA INTO WESTERN TN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IN REGION OF
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER CORES COULD
PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS...WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY LATE MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INGEST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS REGION /3KM HELICITY OF 250-350
M2/S2/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...IF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK COULD BE REQUIRED
DUE TO STRONG NATURE OF THE SHEAR PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MS INTO AL AND FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
EVENING/NIGHT.
...TN/KY...
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN FARTHER
SOUTH. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS APPARENT WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO KY TODAY...BUT
DEGREE OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THAT FAR NORTH IS UNCLEAR.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50-65 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB
AND 3KM HELICITY OF 300+ MS/S2/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME ORGANIZED.
..HART.. 01/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1244Z (7:44AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Coredesat
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS LA/AR THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFY BY MID MORNING AS THEY SPREAD
INTO MS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS LA/AR THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFY BY MID MORNING AS THEY SPREAD
INTO MS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 101342
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
TORNADO WATCH 16 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
LAC009-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-063-065-077-083-091-097-105-
107-117-121-123-125-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0016.080110T1345Z-080110T2200Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
MSC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-037-
043-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-085-089-093-
095-097-099-105-107-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-
137-139-141-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0016.080110T1345Z-080110T2200Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN AMITE
ATTALA BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE
LEFLORE LINCOLN MADISON
MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PIKE PONTOTOC PRENTISS
QUITMAN RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN...MEG...LIX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 16 TORNADO LA MS 101345Z - 102200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNE UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 15WSW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /39E MEM - 5WSW BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 35048804 30449029 30449247 35049033
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 16 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS LA/AR THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFY BY MID MORNING AS THEY SPREAD
INTO MS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS LA/AR THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFY BY MID MORNING AS THEY SPREAD
INTO MS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 101342
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
TORNADO WATCH 16 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
LAC009-025-029-033-035-037-039-041-063-065-077-083-091-097-105-
107-117-121-123-125-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0016.080110T1345Z-080110T2200Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
MSC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-037-
043-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-085-089-093-
095-097-099-105-107-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-
137-139-141-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0016.080110T1345Z-080110T2200Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN AMITE
ATTALA BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE
LEFLORE LINCOLN MADISON
MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PIKE PONTOTOC PRENTISS
QUITMAN RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WILKINSON WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN...MEG...LIX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 16 TORNADO LA MS 101345Z - 102200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNE UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 15WSW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /39E MEM - 5WSW BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 35048804 30449029 30449247 35049033
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 16 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY
INTO MD TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101352Z - 101545Z
A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/WESTERN TENNESSEE...TO THE EAST OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE
MIGRATING TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS. AND...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE THROUGH 16-17Z. COOL/ STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. BUT...AS CAPE
FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION INCREASES TO
500-1000 J/KG...WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR.. 01/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
37799033 38498971 38668771 37988633 37238552 36398548
35858562 35678656 35968741 36268864 36538949 36749011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY
INTO MD TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101352Z - 101545Z
A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/WESTERN TENNESSEE...TO THE EAST OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE
MIGRATING TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS. AND...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE THROUGH 16-17Z. COOL/ STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. BUT...AS CAPE
FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION INCREASES TO
500-1000 J/KG...WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR.. 01/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
37799033 38498971 38668771 37988633 37238552 36398548
35858562 35678656 35968741 36268864 36538949 36749011
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: More severe weather? January 10-12, Southeast
Lafayette, LA (where I used to live, and have been drunk) when I worked in New Iberia and went offshore, has been specifically mentioned in the latest MCD.
CAPE isn't quite as high, nor helicity, as the model forecast for SGF a couple of days ago, but the mid-level instability (I look at the total totals) at 54 is pretty good, and there is enough helicity for a spin up.
I was gonna go ARA or LFT, but BTR looks a tad better for tornadoes.
CAPE isn't quite as high, nor helicity, as the model forecast for SGF a couple of days ago, but the mid-level instability (I look at the total totals) at 54 is pretty good, and there is enough helicity for a spin up.
I was gonna go ARA or LFT, but BTR looks a tad better for tornadoes.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
First warning:
000
WUUS54 KMEG 101439
SVRMEG
MSC071-107-101530-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0014.080110T1439Z-080110T1530Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 930 AM CST
* AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ENDVILLE...OR
ABOUT NEAR BATESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BURGESS...GLENVILLE AND HARMONTOWN.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3457 8976 3452 8933 3417 8983 3436 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 223DEG 53KT 3437 8981
$$
000
WUUS54 KMEG 101439
SVRMEG
MSC071-107-101530-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0014.080110T1439Z-080110T1530Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 930 AM CST
* AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ENDVILLE...OR
ABOUT NEAR BATESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BURGESS...GLENVILLE AND HARMONTOWN.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3457 8976 3452 8933 3417 8983 3436 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 223DEG 53KT 3437 8981
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 101523Z - 101630Z
...MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN...
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO MIDDLE
TN WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.
..DARROW.. 01/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
34418954 35758812 36058649 34848599 32778723 33018937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 101523Z - 101630Z
...MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN...
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO MIDDLE
TN WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.
..DARROW.. 01/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
34418954 35758812 36058649 34848599 32778723 33018937
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
TORNADO WARNING
MSC033-093-TNC047-101615-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0009.080110T1524Z-080110T1615Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CST
* AT 924 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BYHALIA...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MT
PLEASANT...SLAYDEN AND SOMERVILLE.
.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3539 8920 3509 8919 3477 8972 3479 8976
3490 8983 3500 8972 3501 8964 3508 8964
3541 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 223DEG 55KT 3492 8972
$$
MSC033-093-TNC047-101615-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0009.080110T1524Z-080110T1615Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CST
* AT 924 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BYHALIA...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MT
PLEASANT...SLAYDEN AND SOMERVILLE.
.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3539 8920 3509 8919 3477 8972 3479 8976
3490 8983 3500 8972 3501 8964 3508 8964
3541 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 223DEG 55KT 3492 8972
$$
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F. Prefect
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:43 pm
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I smell an outbreak brewing here...the conditions seem almost exactly what they were on Monday at this point. Screaming shear overpowering the face there is only moderate instability...
Hopefully the worst of the activity will occur during the daylight hours. I live in Branson, MO, about 35 miles south of Springfield, and the sirens didn't go off in our area until 4:10 AM on the 8th. The training supercells began to show up at about 1:00 PM on the 7th to the NE of Springfield and rapidly began building back toward the SW into OK then moved rapidly to the NE at 45-60 MPH with the activity actually increasing in strenght and coverage as the night progressed. Finally the individual cells formed into a solid line after midnight with the bowed line producing 100+ MPH winds in Springfield. One county was actually under 7 separate tornado warnings during a 10 hour period.
It could be an interesting day in the SE.
F. Prefect
newb
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