Multi-year La Nina events and hurricanes

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think the evolution of this Nina closely resembles the 1998-1999 event. I would not be surprised to observe a temporary re-strengthening of the negative anomalies, especially along 160W-160E. The eastern PAC SSTA in the 1998-1999 event weakened (warmed), but the event regained intensity, thus producing a multi-year La Nina. The main difference is the east/west transition... 1998 started west-based, but the eastern zones cooled in 1999. This recharged the Nina, although cold SSTA remained entrenched further west. Conversely, this event started east-based, followed by a gradual westward transition. Regardless, the pattern similarities between '98-99 and '07-08 are strikingly similar in the Pacific. I don't think this Nina will subside any time within the short-term future. Compare the evolution of 1998-1999 with 2007-2008.

Does anyone want to speculate on the chances WRT a similar '98/99-esque ATL hurricane season in 2008? It is important to note that multi-year La Nina events often coincide with a high ratio of major hurricanes vs. NS. See 1893, 1909, 1950, 1954, and 1999 as excellent examples.

1893 - 5 intense hurricanes out of 10 total hurricanes, including the notorious Sea Islands Hurricane (Cat 3 in GA/SC), Cheniere Caminada Hurricane (Cat 4 in LA), and an October Cat 3 near Myrtle Beach, SC. Note that Puerto Rico was struck by a Category 3 hurricane in August
1909 - This one was another active landfalling season. Four of the six hurricanes struck the United States mainland (Cat 3 strikes in TX, LA, and FL)
1950 - Largest number of major hurricanes in a single season, although several storms will likely be downgraded or reduced in terms of intensity (i.e. Dog)
1954 - Legendary season in the Caribbean and East Coast with major CONUS strikes from Carol, Edna, and Hazel (Cat 3, 3, and 4); Hispaniola was also devastated by Hazel
1999 - Very destructive season in the Caribbean basin and United States (Bret, Floyd, Lenny, etc.)

Most of these seasons featured a large proportion of hurricane strikes in the CONUS vs. other storms.

The 1999 season featured five Category 4 hurricanes (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert, and "wrong way" Lenny).

Obviously, this post provides details regarding historical climatology, and it does not offer any details as to the author's thoughts about 2008. It's important to avoid unwarranted hype for any land mass that may be affected.

[MiamiensisWx]

All of these seasons were generally above average, too.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1893/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1909/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1954/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/index.html

1893 - 12 NS
1909 - 11 NS
1950 - 13 NS
1954 - 11 NS
1999 - 12 NS

[Ptarmigan]

You raise some good points. 1893 was not a good year for America. It was the year that hurricanes claimed over a thousand lives in Amierca. If Sea Island and Cheniere Caminada were to happen today, it would be a real mess.

[MiamiensisWx]

You raise some good points. 1893 was not a good year for America. It was the year that hurricanes claimed over a thousand lives in Amierca. If Sea Island and Cheniere Caminada were to happen today, it would be a real mess.

I think you missed the point of this topic.

This La Nina looks like a potential multi-year event that is akin to 1998-1999. That Nina started in late 1998 and continued through 1999. Climatologically, multi-year Ninas have tended to be moderate or strong events. Additionally, multi-year Ninas have often produced above average Atlantic TC seasons. These seasons usually featured many landfalling storms in the Caribbean and United States, especially in termsc of hurricanes. Finally, the ratio of intense hurricanes vs. total named storms has been quite high in several of these seasons. That's the point, and I think you believe it will be interesting to observe the 2007 season in light of the data.

[Ptarmigan]

I think you missed the point of this topic.

This La Nina looks like a potential multi-year event that is akin to 1998-1999. That Nina started in late 1998 and continued through 1999. Climatologically, multi-year Ninas have tended to be moderate or strong events. Additionally, multi-year Ninas have often produced above average Atlantic TC seasons. These seasons usually featured many landfalling storms in the Caribbean and United States, especially in termsc of hurricanes. Finally, the ratio of intense hurricanes vs. total named storms has been quite high in several of these seasons. That's the point, and I think you believe it will be interesting to observe the 2007 season in light of the data.

What I meant to say is that La Nina increases hurricane landfall, which could mean more deaths and damage done.

2007 hurricane season kinda reminds me of 1981, lots of storms forming, not too many hurricanes and just one major hurricane. I have found La Nina years are more active than normal, especially when it comes to major hurricanes. I will never forget 1999, a year with a high rate of major hurricanes, kinda like 1950.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think you missed the point of this topic.

This La Nina looks like a potential multi-year event that is akin to 1998-1999. That Nina started in late 1998 and continued through 1999. Climatologically, multi-year Ninas have tended to be moderate or strong events. Additionally, multi-year Ninas have often produced above average Atlantic TC seasons. These seasons usually featured many landfalling storms in the Caribbean and United States, especially in termsc of hurricanes. Finally, the ratio of intense hurricanes vs. total named storms has been quite high in several of these seasons. That's the point, and I think you believe it will be interesting to observe the 2007 season in light of the data.

2007 hurricane season kinda reminds me of 1981, lots of storms forming, not too many hurricanes and just one maor hurricane. I have found La Nina years are more active than normal, especially when it comes to major hurricanes. I will never forget 1999, a year with a high rate of major hurricanes, kinda like 1950.

Uhh... 2007 featured two major hurricanes. Don't forget Dean or Felix.

2008 may be juicier in terms of total intense hurricanes vs. other storms. It will be interesting if that knocks 2008's ACE upward, especially if several storms are long-tracked tropical cyclones. Ninas often feature multiple Cape Verde tropical cyclones from the MDR.

[Ptarmigan]

Uhh... 2007 featured two major hurricanes. Don't forget Dean or Felix.

2008 may be juicier in terms of total intense hurricanes vs. other storms. It will be interesting if that knocks 2008's ACE upward, especially if several storms are long-tracked tropical cyclones. Ninas often feature multiple Cape Verde tropical cyclones from the MDR.

I know that 2007 had Dean and Felix. I was pointing out how low the ACE in 2007 was, like 1981. 2007 was MUCH deadlier than 1981.

[KWT]

We are going to have to watch the temps in the eastern zones in the next few months as that will be key to seeing how the ENSO develops. IMO I think this La Nina will still be here next winter but as a weak event, think of the way the 98-00 la nina evolved.

[MiamiensisWx]

Bump.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The arguments here point to an active season
1999 is an analog based on the La Nina.
We will see how the troughs, upper level lows,
and global warming induced- shear acts to decrease
activity. Without these inhibitors, an active season is
probable to perhaps likely.